Why hasn't the Singularity gone mainstream (yet?) (electric, material, vehicle)
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I even didn't think about selfdriving cars being less expensive to produce because in several ways (some things are of course more expensive) there are a lot of things you'd don't need any more like windshield, mirrors, steering wheel, pedals etc. you can also IMO gain in productivity costs as you can fit people as you like, not necessarily behind a steering wheel and aligned like today.
Who cares if someone will have a better deal riding his old car when millions of car buyers will have a better deal buying a selfdriving car instead of a human driven car?
When you state that "X" is cheaper than "Y", you are implying it is so for all.
If this is your counter to my argument, then you are retreating from "X will be cheaper than Y" to "X will be cheaper than Y for high-risk drivers".
Do you want to make this concession or not?
If not, your counter-argument doesn't work.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Valmond
You misunderstands the whole thing, the 10% off is only an added incentive. The costs, As the article explains it are already paid for by the lower insurance after some years.
Only if the costs are below $7k, I'm arguing.
EDIT: I now realize you misinterpreted what I meant by "10% discount rate".
How is that possible? Don't the sensors and actuators need maintenance?
And what about the control computer? Won't it need updates when the guiding system changes?
Won't it need repairs, just like a desktop computer does?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Valmond
(2) this will be close to zero, in a couple of years we will have internet access basically for free everywhere (already coming today, I have illimited internet access on my smartphone for 16€/month, that includes voice, sms/mms, video, data, you name it. 5-7 years from now it won't cost 5€/month).
How do you know this?
Even mature communication technology is still costly, so why should this be any different?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Valmond
(3) Say ten pounds, that wouldn't change 0.1% of the fuel efficiency
(4) lol you just made that up. Like if a lose 10 pounds, my cars drivetrain will roll hundreds of miles more! This is just not true for a thousand+ pound car.
How do you get the laser range-finders, on board control system, etc. to collectively weigh just 10 pounds?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Valmond
(5) You have seen too many films. Remember too that selfdriving cars are projected to drop accidents by 80%, even if it was possible do you think hackers will kill thousant of people without the gouvernment will interfere and capture them?
Sure, accidents may drop by 80%. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't include the remaining 20% in your analysis.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Valmond
(5b) Depends where you live but soon cars must have at least some of those self driving mechanics (Auto breaking European law for trucks 2018 IIRC) I don't know but I bet those won't be hacked either.
(6) We already have similar costs today and IoT will more closely monitor problems and solve problems before they happen (breakdowns etc.).
Give me one example of an innovative technology invented after 1930 that doesn't break down.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Valmond
ps. who pays $75/month cable bill ??? This seems completely excessive.
If I have heard of Zipcar or not is not of relevance here.
You never seem to argument your opinions or just make things up as you go, things that suit you (75$ cable / 10pounds breaks a car / hackers / the added cost of something you are not backing up at all / ......) and you just stop talking when you are wrong or trying new invented arguments.
I'm starting to think you are here not to argue and discuss (logically) but only to troll or that you are a ferocious opponent of the singularity because of religion or other lifestyle choices.
If this is the case,I mean if you won't discuss and argue with facts, I'll just stop answering your claims, I got better things to do.
If you do though, I'll gladly discuss and argument.
Just sayin.
Poking holes in your argument is not the same thing as trolling.
Perhaps we're misunderstanding each other a bit , though.
I should also add, if you had said 2030 instead of 2020, I'd probably go along, as long as you are comparing new to new.
But you said 2020. Given that it usually takes three years or so from the design and R&D phase to the rollout for public use, you've only got 3 years to do this.
The Google self-driving car model is very expensive.
You are proposing a very large cost reduction in a very short time frame.
I should also add, if you had said 2030 instead of 2020, I'd probably go along, as long as you are comparing new to new.
But you said 2020. Given that it usually takes three years or so from the design and R&D phase to the rollout for public use, you've only got 3 years to do this.
The Google self-driving car model is very expensive.
You are proposing a very large cost reduction in a very short time frame.
We will have driverless cars by 2020 but the price being cheaper then driver cars might be a tad optimistic but it will happen well before 2030. That is why I have been pretty consistent in calling the 2020's the pre-singularity as the kind of changes we will see in that short 10 years will fundamentally change society as we know it. Now quite at the level of the singularity in 2045 which should give you a idea of just how much life will change then.
Last edited by Josseppie; 09-19-2014 at 09:17 AM..
I'm kind of a hurry, I'll be back if there is some big mistakes but quickly:
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1
When you state that "X" is cheaper than "Y", you are implying it is so for all.
If this is your counter to my argument, then you are retreating from "X will be cheaper than Y" to "X will be cheaper than Y for high-risk drivers".
Do you want to make this concession or not?
If not, your counter-argument doesn't work.
I'm not saing that for everyone this will be the case (obviously), but it will for a lot of people. So you saying that for some peole it doesn't work, doesn't make my reasoning flawed. Other things cn but not that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1
Only if the costs are below $7k, I'm arguing.
EDIT: I now realize you misinterpreted what I meant by "10% discount rate".
Well you argur e this I think it can be more expensive.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1
How is that possible? Don't the sensors and actuators need maintenance?
And what about the control computer? Won't it need updates when the guiding system changes?
Won't it need repairs, just like a desktop computer does?
How do you know this?
Even mature communication technology is still costly, so why should this be any different?
First of all, cars are literally filled with computers already, and they work it out kind of okay. adding a failsafe computer (like in areoplanes) will add a cost. A cost that will be very low as CPU prices are in free fall since decades (Moore's law and all that).
For the sensors, sure they need to be changed if they break, like any other thing but cars are made to last IIRC around at least 10 years so the sensors would be designed for that to (redundance etc.).
Their prices it plummeting too, check out LIDAR prices for example (it halvens every X time like information tech).
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1
How do you get the laser range-finders, on board control system, etc. to collectively weigh just 10 pounds?
Today they are expensive and bulky but both their price and size plummets. This is classic, first things are bulky, expensive and work badly, then small, cheap and work well, then almost free and work perfectly. We'll be in the "kind of cheap" phase in 6-7 years I think.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1
Sure, accidents may drop by 80%. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't include the remaining 20% in your analysis.
That's a minimum projection, but OK, say it's 80% then insurance (the biggest biggest cost for insurance companies are hospital costs, not wrecked cars for example) would drop like 80% too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1
Give me one example of an innovative technology invented after 1930 that doesn't break down.
Don't understand you here, cars break down, planes break down, even trains do. Obviously self driving cars will too. More advanced systems and sensors will be able to lower that probability so that say, your drivetrain is 1000 miles from breaking down, you can send the car away to change the bearings (for example) but it will still happen even if more rarely than today.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1
Poking holes in your argument is not the same thing as trolling.
Perhaps we're misunderstanding each other a bit , though.
Yeah, no offence meant, I just think you are too theoretical when you discuss, it it the future we are talking about and so say I'm right with those self driving cars but it happens 2 years later? Was that so important? Maybe for some, maybe not for others.
I know it will happen, that is, for me, without a slightest doubt. I think That is the thing to debate first, then the timing that obviously too, might be wrong but for that we'll have to wait it out to see who's right
I even didn't think about selfdriving cars being less expensive to produce because in several ways (some things are of course more expensive) there are a lot of things you'd don't need any more like windshield, mirrors, steering wheel, pedals etc. you can also IMO gain in productivity costs as you can fit people as you like, not necessarily behind a steering wheel and aligned like today.
I am not sure about this one:
11. The Death of Car Culture
This goes beyond information technology so no one can predict it for sure but my guess is people will still want their favorite car brand rather its a Mercedes or Ford.
Today they are expensive and bulky but both their price and size plummets. This is classic, first things are bulky, expensive and work badly, then small, cheap and work well, then almost free and work perfectly. We'll be in the "kind of cheap" phase in 6-7 years I think.
How are you coming up with the time frame?
And also, adding components to a system increases its maintenance cost, despite the fact that both old and new systems indeed require maintenance.
X+Y needs more maintenance than X, even though both X and X+Y need maintenance.
We will have driverless cars by 2020 but the price being cheaper then driver cars might be a tad optimistic but it will happen well before 2030. That is why I have been pretty consistent in calling the 2020's the pre-singularity as the kind of changes we will see in that short 10 years will fundamentally change society as we know it. Now quite at the level of the singularity in 2045 which should give you a idea of just how much life will change then.
Just for info, the idea in the article was that driverless cars will be more expensive but as they are insurance friendly (projected to do 80% accident less) the lower insurance will pay for the more expensive car.
For the rest, I think you are nailing it, 2020 will give us a first bite of the apple (compared to today anyway) and the ten years after will be amazing!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie
I am not sure about this one:
11. The Death of Car Culture
They base that on the idea of car pooling (you don't own a car, you just rent the closest one when needed). Sure people will have preferences still in that scenario but maybe not as much as in USA today?
And also, adding components to a system increases its maintenance cost, despite the fact that both old and new systems indeed require maintenance.
X+Y needs more maintenance than X, even though both X and X+Y need maintenance.
Sure but what if it isn't: X and then X+Y?
It can be X going to Z+Y where Z is new improved technology ('better' X) which seems very likely (doesn't prove me right though mind you).
I don't remember but it might be UPS (or another big delivery fleet in the USA), they actually monitor their car fleet for break downs (they have a lot of sensors here and there in the car IIRC) so they can fix it in a garage instead of a costly recovery in a street somewhere, I'm sure they can't predict every breakdown but it works economically apparently.
So more sensors can actually make it less costly anyway.
The time frame comes mainly from that article and other observations I have done, Nissan promises self driving car 2020, GM thinks it seems likely by 2020, Sweden tries out highway self driving today (Volvo), England too test next year, it is not only Google !
I feel we are at a tipping point here, everyone start to race (no pun intended) toward the goal of a self driving car.
The tech exists and legislation starts to adjust, they are just rolling it out slowly so we adapt and 5-7 years from now seems reasonable according to all those statements from the manufacturers but also from plummeting sensor prices and obvious tests and so.
Actually, I think all those new electric cars that have come out since like a year will help push this too, but that could be my imagination.
Just for info, the idea in the article was that driverless cars will be more expensive but as they are insurance friendly (projected to do 80% accident less) the lower insurance will pay for the more expensive car.
For the rest, I think you are nailing it, 2020 will give us a first bite of the apple (compared to today anyway) and the ten years after will be amazing!
Agreed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Valmond
They base that on the idea of car pooling (you don't own a car, you just rent the closest one when needed). Sure people will have preferences still in that scenario but maybe not as much as in USA today?
I have heard that theory but I am not sure it will happen that way. Personally I will still want my own car when its driverless and I want it to be a Mercedes 500 ML. Why I will wait till its available in that model. When I want to go somewhere I want to go right then not plan ahead on getting a car.
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