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IBM scientists described a new kind of circuit in a paper published in Science on Thursday. There is no chip involve, per se. It's being described accurately as a "post-silicon transistor" and potentially paves the way for the most powerful and efficient computers the world has ever seen. This is possible largely because it mimics the behavior of another hyper-efficient computational marvel: the human brain.
Joseppie, you started this thread 25 months ago, saying that in 216 months (by 2030), this singularity would be an accomplished fact. We are 12% of the way there. Where are the signs? You say in another 180 months, there will be quadrillions of computers (billions in each of billions of people), each one with the power and capacity of the one I am using now. But in the last 25 months, the only progress I can see is some infuriatingly and embarrassiongly gaudier apps on Windows 8 startup, and the refusal of YouTube to let me default to my account of choice., and tortilla chip bags being downsized to 14 ounces..
Give us a progress report since February 2012. By the way, any predictions on what the cost over-run might be? Who will pay for this? The poor have no capital, and the rich put all theirs in the Cayman Islands or Republican campaign funds.
Joseppie, you started this thread 25 months ago, saying that in 216 months (by 2030), this singularity would be an accomplished fact. We are 12% of the way there. Where are the signs? You say in another 180 months, there will be quadrillions of computers (billions in each of billions of people), each one with the power and capacity of the one I am using now. But in the last 25 months, the only progress I can see is some infuriatingly and embarrassiongly gaudier apps on Windows 8 startup, and the refusal of YouTube to let me default to my account of choice., and tortilla chip bags being downsized to 14 ounces..
Give us a progress report since February 2012. By the way, any predictions on what the cost over-run might be? Who will pay for this? The poor have no capital, and the rich put all theirs in the Cayman Islands or Republican campaign funds.
As was mentioned I did not start this thread.
We are actually right on track. The current paradigm shift is to wearable computers like Google glass and meta glasses plus a lot more are in the development phase. 2015 should see a lot of that kind of technology coming out. That is right on schedule for computers the size of blood cells that have thousands of times more processing capability then all of NASA in the 1960's to be out by 2030 allowing us to merge with them. In fact I read that in 10 years we will be able to access the internet directly. Then I read a report that said AI is taking off and we will see a lot more of it in the next 5 years. I have posted that by 2029 Robots and computers will be as smart as humans so again we are right on track.
Who will pay for it? At first it will be expensive but the cost will quickly go down just with with smart phones.
We are actually right on track. The current paradigm shift is to wearable computers like Google glass and meta glasses plus a lot more are in the development phase. 2015 should see a lot of that kind of technology coming out. That is right on schedule for computers the size of blood cells that have thousands of times more processing capability then all of NASA in the 1960's to be out by 2030 allowing us to merge with them. In fact I read that in 10 years we will be able to access the internet directly. Then I read a report that said AI is taking off and we will see a lot more of it in the next 5 years. I have posted that by 2029 Robots and computers will be as smart as humans so again we are right on track.
Who will pay for it? At first it will be expensive but the cost will quickly go down just with with smart phones.
What you have listed here is:
- Google glass and meta glasses, the latter being basically VR glasses or headsets like Oculus Rift (great for gamers), etc. You're saying a lot more should be around by 2015.
- Computer the size of blood cells by 2030.
- Direct access to the internet by 2024.
- Greater AI by 2019.
- Robots and computers as smart as humans by 2029.
That all sounds cool, but you're still resorting to relying on more predictions. Just because Google Glass has been developed, doesn't mean it's going to widespread by next year. It will depend on how good they are and the price. Some of the things listed could end up being limited for specialized use or to hobbiests willing to splurge on the latest gadgets. Some could possibly end up as a passing fad or as failures. Just a few years ago when 3-D televisions were being touted as being something in every living room? That didn't seem to pan out very well as had been predicted.
I'd say a clear sign is when something has become widespread or more common in use. So what unquestionably successful gadgets since the start of this thread can you list without making predictions of what MIGHT happen in the future?
Will technology be the silver bullet to solve the problems of society and the world? According to a top exec of Google, Jared Cohen, the same Google that your hero Ray Kurzweil is affiliated with, seems to have a different opinion.
Quote:
We all love technology and we all believe in its power. But we are reminded by Putin’s domestic crackdown, the annexation of Crimea and the perpetual horrors in Syria, that technology is not a silver bullet answer to the world’s problems.
I keep watching for indicators that we are approaching the singularity. Next week the blu-ray of Ancborman-2 is coming out with 763 new jokes. Is that one of the indicators? That's at least twice as many times as any human being could have laughed in two hours, a mere 18 months ago.
What you have listed here is:
- Google glass and meta glasses, the latter being basically VR glasses or headsets like Oculus Rift (great for gamers), etc. You're saying a lot more should be around by 2015.
- Computer the size of blood cells by 2030.
- Direct access to the internet by 2024.
- Greater AI by 2019.
- Robots and computers as smart as humans by 2029.
That all sounds cool, but you're still resorting to relying on more predictions. Just because Google Glass has been developed, doesn't mean it's going to widespread by next year. It will depend on how good they are and the price. Some of the things listed could end up being limited for specialized use or to hobbiests willing to splurge on the latest gadgets. Some could possibly end up as a passing fad or as failures. Just a few years ago when 3-D televisions were being touted as being something in every living room? That didn't seem to pan out very well as had been predicted.
I'd say a clear sign is when something has become widespread or more common in use. So what unquestionably successful gadgets since the start of this thread can you list without making predictions of what MIGHT happen in the future?
The current paradigm shift is to wearable computers. That is not a forecast but where we are now and right on track for the singularity as I saw this coming 5 years ago. Computers advancing exponentially (More's law and the law of accelerating returns) that caused me to see this coming is also why I can say in the mid to late 2020's the paradigm shift will be to merging with computers.
Here is a article I have posted on the current paradigm shift.
SAN FRANCISCO — The digital domain is creeping off our desktops and onto our bodies, from music players that match your tunes to your heart beat, to mood sweaters that change color depending on your emotional state.
I keep watching for indicators that we are approaching the singularity. Next week the blu-ray of Ancborman-2 is coming out with 763 new jokes. Is that one of the indicators? That's at least twice as many times as any human being could have laughed in two hours, a mere 18 months ago.
My first thought was to say no but in a way it is. I mean to get to the singularity its all the little steps like this one that just shows how fast technology is advancing.
The current paradigm shift is to wearable computers. That is not a forecast but where we are now and right on track for the singularity as I saw this coming 5 years ago. Computers advancing exponentially (More's law and the law of accelerating returns) that caused me to see this coming is also why I can say in the mid to late 2020's the paradigm shift will be to merging with computers.
That's it? Wearable computers is the clear sign that has emerged since the start of this thread? Nothing else? So what does 5 years ago or the mid to late 2020's have to do with merging with computers? Nothing. The former relates to when you became more aware of the concept and the latter is nothing more than an extension of what already exists.
The reply is really disappointing because it indicates to me that your focus is primarily limited to the marketing hype regarding the so-called "technological singularity". It really isn't necessary to constantly keep using buzzwords like "paradigm shift". Such terms, as commonly used, are little more than flashy, gee-whiz, techno-savvy marketing expressions that have little meaning to the average person. Marketing buzzwords are a perfect example (regarding the original question of the thread) as to "Why hasn't the Singularity gone mainstream (yet?)". Paradigm shift - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"Wearable computers" is NOT an example of what has emerged since the beginning of this thread. I've had one for the last couple of decades that I wear on my wrist. It's a digital Casio Databank 150 EDB610D-8C which includes an alpha-numeric keypad and has several modes that can provide different kinds of useful information. Wearable computers is not anything new. Casio Databank - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Did you even read the article I provided the link to?
I can't believe this crap has been perpetuated for so long.
I'm not that old (43), but for as long as I can remember people have tried to predict the future. The overwhelming majority of persons have not been able to do so with any degree of accuracy. I remember during my childhood, there were predictions floating around like 'By the year 2000 we'll have personal jet packs, flying cars, and will have virtually stopped the aging process'. It turned out to be crap, and I think and hope the singularity is crap.
Jaron Lanier has largely effectively described the motivation for the singularity movement. I think he's right in arguing that it's very much a quasi-religious movement, but instead of god delivering eternal life technology will.
I'm skeptical technology will ever deliver eternal life, but even if it some day can, why is this in any way desireable? To the prospect of eternal life seems utterly disgusting and among the most awful of human ideas and desires. In order for life to progress old organisms must eventually die so that newer incarnations can take their place.
To me the singularity is yet another symptom of Western Society's pathological disassociation from the natural world, and to some extent from life itself.
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