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One million might not seem very much but it is a quite big price compared to others (20 millions for going to the moon, soft landing, driving around and taking photos, or better known, the sub orbital flight price that was won by SpaceShipOne was only 10M$, the development of SpaceShipOne was more than 100M$).
It also, as you noticed, shows that people start to take things seriously, it is no longer De Grey all alone "preaching" his ideas, the Palo Alto philanthropists are in on the game.
About Watson, this is serious business too, and I bet 'he' will be all over the place in just a couple of years. If Moore's law holds, you'd be able to use "a Watson" 30 minutes a day for 10$/months (hardware costs only) and in 2022-2023 the hardware for Watson will be around 1000$. Faster/cheaper if the software gets better too.
That is why I have called the 2020's the pre-singularity as things will really start to change super fast. Very exciting but at the same time a little scary because of how fast we will be advancing.
That is why I have called the 2020's the pre-singularity as things will really start to change super fast. Very exciting but at the same time a little scary because of how fast we will be advancing.
Yeah, I see what you mean!
Here are some predictions for 2020 and 2030 collected from here and there, can't prove anything, they are just predictions but I usually save off those I think seems realistically predicted, if you can say that . But it helps me to project a bit what will probably happen:
2020 ubiquoitous internet nodes & connections, selfdriving cars on the road are cheaper than non selfdriving cars, there is 50 billion conencted items in the world, IBM pledges nanotube transistor by 2020 (or bust) so I guess we'll have them, blue brain project almost done (1 year left).
2030 Life expectancy is growing more than 1 year/year or closing in (it will be wildly varying depending on your age but about everyone have achieved theoretical LEV), De Grey have trebled remaining lifespan in mice several years ago and everyone believe it can be done for humans and are on it, you can change the genes in your existing cells, human brain simulation exist and works, human like AI is reality (hardware costs is less than 100$), advanced nanotechnology is rolling towards Molecular Manufacturing desktop machines (but not here yet).
I bet robots (this is my prediction), rolling and walking, are here too and can replace more than 33% of any worker today (2014) probably more, and if automation software (bots and so) is included more than 75% of today's jobs or more.
So yeah, I know all those things won't work out perfectly right, some will be faster, some slower. Most probably there will be some new incredible invention (like the smartphone was) but that we can't really grasp today, for example ubiquitous Collaborative Commons but who knows
I'm saving off this link + text and hopefully I will be able to come back and check how good a 'seer' I am at 2020 and 2030
I think it is interesting too that the 2020 things seems not that far fetched or scary but the 2030 seems like science fiction a bit... well just in my opinion!
I have read that robots will be doing that by 2020 and they are already selling them to banks and restaurants in Japan today. Since like all information technology this is advancing exponentially it should be common by 2020.
Scientists make monkeys smarter using brain implants. Could you be next?
One of the things I keep reading is how many projects that are in the discovery stage that will impact us in a big way during the 2020's. This is just one more of those examples.
This is from IO9:
For the very first time, scientists have demonstrated that a brain implant can improve thinking ability in primates. By implanting an electrode array into the cerebral cortex of monkeys, researchers were able to restore — and even improve — their decision-making abilities. The implications for possible therapies are far-reaching, including potential treatments for cognitive disorders and brain injuries.
But there's also the possibility that this could lead to implants that could boost your intelligence. Here's how they did it.
Yeah, I see what you mean!
Here are some predictions for 2020 and 2030 collected from here and there, can't prove anything, they are just predictions but I usually save off those I think seems realistically predicted, if you can say that . But it helps me to project a bit what will probably happen:
2020 ubiquoitous internet nodes & connections, selfdriving cars on the road are cheaper than non selfdriving cars, there is 50 billion conencted items in the world, IBM pledges nanotube transistor by 2020 (or bust) so I guess we'll have them, blue brain project almost done (1 year left).
2030 Life expectancy is growing more than 1 year/year or closing in (it will be wildly varying depending on your age but about everyone have achieved theoretical LEV), De Grey have trebled remaining lifespan in mice several years ago and everyone believe it can be done for humans and are on it, you can change the genes in your existing cells, human brain simulation exist and works, human like AI is reality (hardware costs is less than 100$), advanced nanotechnology is rolling towards Molecular Manufacturing desktop machines (but not here yet).
I bet robots (this is my prediction), rolling and walking, are here too and can replace more than 33% of any worker today
(2014) probably more, and if automation software (bots and so) is included more than 75% of today's jobs or more.
So yeah, I know all those things won't work out perfectly right, some will be faster, some slower. Most probably there will be some new incredible invention (like the smartphone was) but that we can't really grasp today, for example ubiquitous Collaborative Commons but who knows
I'm saving off this link + text and hopefully I will be able to come back and check how good a 'seer' I am at 2020 and 2030
I think it is interesting too that the 2020 things seems not that far fetched or scary but the 2030 seems like science fiction a bit... well just in my opinion!
autonomous automobiles cheaper than human operated in 2020?
That's absurd - the autonomous car requires a lot more equipment than the human-operated one does.
By analogy, automatic transmission has existed for more than 60 years and it's STILL more expensive than manual.
And you are postulating just a few years between a technology and it becoming cheaper than its absence?
I have to be honest I am not sure what is meant by "cheaper". I have read the price will come down and in time there will be little if any difference then further out you will not be able to buy anything other then driverless cars. That should happen in the 2020's.
autonomous automobiles cheaper than human operated in 2020?
That's absurd - the autonomous car requires a lot more equipment than the human-operated one does.
By analogy, automatic transmission has existed for more than 60 years and it's STILL more expensive than manual.
And you are postulating just a few years between a technology and it becoming cheaper than its absence?
That's just nuts.
To understand why, you have to know that there are several costs involved with automobiles, the big differences between driverless cars and todays cars are the cost of creating them (higher) and accidents (lower).
Automobile related accidents in the USA is over 500 Billion dollars a year, this is why you are paying an expensive insurance for your car, with a more expensive driverless car you'd pay a fraction of this and even if the driverless car costs 10.000$ more you'd even out and win in a couple of years.
Just to add my thoughts, and debunk a bit more that this is absurd or "nuts":
With a driverless car you'd also most likely have less small accidents and less wear, better mileage etc. as a computer can optimize things better than us humans.
Many people if not all (exception is rural areas or for someone needing his/her car 24h/day or must 'own' the car to feel good) could also pool together and share cars as they can get to you by themselves.
Say 100 people share 90 cars, that's quite a reduction in price and I bet that with a minimum planning, you would need even a lot less cars.
Cars when not used could be used as taxis to further lower the prices.
In big cities there could be thousands of cars that everyone could use (this is actually the case, today, in Paris but they are not self driven of course) and that would cost a fraction compared to buy, tend to, and store your own car.
You could also buy a self driving car and have it roam around as a taxi except when you'll need it you'll just have to plan ahead a bit.
To understand why, you have to know that there are several costs involved with automobiles, the big differences between driverless cars and todays cars are the cost of creating them (higher) and accidents (lower).
Automobile related accidents in the USA is over 500 Billion dollars a year, this is why you are paying an expensive insurance for your car, with a more expensive driverless car you'd pay a fraction of this and even if the driverless car costs 10.000$ more you'd even out and win in a couple of years.
Just to add my thoughts, and debunk a bit more that this is absurd or "nuts":
With a driverless car you'd also most likely have less small accidents and less wear, better mileage etc. as a computer can optimize things better than us humans.
In a lot of areas, a good driver with a long accident-free history can get insured for $75/month or less.
Over a 15-year vehicle life, using a discount rate of 10%, the economic present value of that is only about $7,000. You'd have to have the ENTIRETY of the control system cost under $7k brand new before you'd even come out in the black from insurance.
And this doesn't even factor in
(1) maintenance cost of the control system components of a self-driving car
(2) Cost of added communication needs of self-driving car (E.g. some sort of Google network devoted to that end). If it even costs as much as a $75/month cable bill, you've already wiped out the benefit.
(3) Extra fuel needs due to the weight of the control system making the vehicle heavier
(4) Extra drivetrain maintenance cost due to the same
(5) Insurance cost related to the potential increased hackability of self-driving cars over human-operated ones
(6) The added cost of human "car rescue" operations resulting from system failure or transient loss of network communication
Quote:
Originally Posted by Valmond
Many people if not all (exception is rural areas or for someone needing his/her car 24h/day or must 'own' the car to feel good) could also pool together and share cars as they can get to you by themselves.
Say 100 people share 90 cars, that's quite a reduction in price and I bet that with a minimum planning, you would need even a lot less cars.
Cars when not used could be used as taxis to further lower the prices.
In big cities there could be thousands of cars that everyone could use (this is actually the case, today, in Paris but they are not self driven of course) and that would cost a fraction compared to buy, tend to, and store your own car.
You could also buy a self driving car and have it roam around as a taxi except when you'll need it you'll just have to plan ahead a bit.
In a lot of areas, a good driver with a long accident-free history can get insured for $75/month or less.
Who cares if someone will have a better deal riding his old car when millions of car buyers will have a better deal buying a selfdriving car instead of a human driven car?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1
Over a 15-year vehicle life, using a discount rate of 10%, the economic present value of that is only about $7,000. You'd have to have the ENTIRETY of the control system cost under $7k brand new before you'd even come out in the black from insurance.
You misunderstands the whole thing, the 10% off is only an added incentive. The costs, As the article explains it are already paid for by the lower insurance after some years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1
And this doesn't even factor in
(1) maintenance cost of the control system components of a self-driving car
(2) Cost of added communication needs of self-driving car (E.g. some sort of Google network devoted to that end). If it even costs as much as a $75/month cable bill, you've already wiped out the benefit.
(3) Extra fuel needs due to the weight of the control system making the vehicle heavier
(4) Extra drivetrain maintenance cost due to the same
(5) Insurance cost related to the potential increased hackability of self-driving cars over human-operated ones
(6) The added cost of human "car rescue" operations resulting from system failure or transient loss of network communication
Ever heard of Zipcar?
(1) not more than today's electronic packed cars
(2) this will be close to zero, in a couple of years we will have internet access basically for free everywhere (already coming today, I have illimited internet access on my smartphone for 16€/month, that includes voice, sms/mms, video, data, you name it. 5-7 years from now it won't cost 5€/month).
(3) Say ten pounds, that wouldn't change 0.1% of the fuel efficiency
(4) lol you just made that up. Like if a lose 10 pounds, my cars drivetrain will roll hundreds of miles more! This is just not true for a thousand+ pound car.
(5) You have seen too many films. Remember too that selfdriving cars are projected to drop accidents by 80%, even if it was possible do you think hackers will kill thousant of people without the gouvernment will interfere and capture them?
(5b) Depends where you live but soon cars must have at least some of those self driving mechanics (Auto breaking European law for trucks 2018 IIRC) I don't know but I bet those won't be hacked either.
(6) We already have similar costs today and IoT will more closely monitor problems and solve problems before they happen (breakdowns etc.).
ps. who pays $75/month cable bill ??? This seems completely excessive.
If I have heard of Zipcar or not is not of relevance here.
You never seem to argument your opinions or just make things up as you go, things that suit you (75$ cable / 10pounds breaks a car / hackers / the added cost of something you are not backing up at all / ......) and you just stop talking when you are wrong or trying new invented arguments.
I'm starting to think you are here not to argue and discuss (logically) but only to troll or that you are a ferocious opponent of the singularity because of religion or other lifestyle choices.
If this is the case,I mean if you won't discuss and argue with facts, I'll just stop answering your claims, I got better things to do.
If you do though, I'll gladly discuss and argument.
Just sayin.
Oh ok now I see why you see it will be less expensive to drive a driverless car. Agreed it will and sooner then most of us, even myself I am sure, realize.
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. But it helps me to project a bit what will probably happen:
Scientists make monkeys smarter using brain implants. Could you be next?
