Coronavirus positives in Bradenton and Hillsborough Counties (Sarasota, University: salons, unemployment)

[wondermint2]

IMO with the Florida state-wide lockdown set to end on April 30th - Governor DeSantis will lift that lockdown and provide "Guidelines" for local Florida governments to ease their restrictions as they see fit. This article has an excellent discussion about re-opening Florida:

Coronavirus Florida: Business leaders say Florida can re-open safely:
https://news.google.com/articles/CBM...S&ceid=US%3Aen

"Executives from a range of industries offered suggestions for how to end Florida’s statewide lockdown safely during a meeting Tuesday of the governor’s Re-Open Florida Task Force"

"Whether Florida has seen the worst of the coronavirus crisis is unclear. The number of new cases reported each day appears to have leveled off, but every day still brings a substantial number of new infections and deaths."


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Here is the link (see below) to an interesting tool called "Rt Covid-19"
These are up-to-date values for Rt, a key measure of how fast the virus is growing. It’s the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading.

https://rt.live/

Currently (as of Data Last Updated: 4/20 at 23:56PM) Florida is at 0.87. You can also look at the graph and see that the curve of the rate of new COVID-19 infections has gone flat in Florida.

So my thinking is that this tool can give a broad indication on if lifting restrictions will turn out be a good idea.

In a general sense - once restrictions are lifted - if unemployment in Florida goes down and the 'RT-COVID-19" indicator stays below 1.0 than it can be reasoned that opening up was a good idea.

However if the "RT-COVID-19" shoots back up to well over 1.0 - then the re-opening can be looked at in a critical fashion.

There are also some in-betweens - such as the public might still be cautious about going out to buy things after Florida is opened up - so unemployment could remain stubbornly high until a vaccine arrives. So then it's like a trade-off between how much the unemployment rate improves to how much (if any) the "RT-COVID-19" indicator changes.

[Sunshine Rules]

Since February there have been 17,229 COVID-19 deaths.
Another 7,676 died from COVID-19 and pneumonia.

During this same time period 49,013 Americans died from "regular" pneumonia.


Between September 2019 and early March 2020, an estimated 32 million Americans have been ill with the flu, resulting in about 18,000 deaths (some experts claim the actual number may be as high as 40,000), according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. And this is considered a "normal" flu season.



Farmers are dumping milk, eggs, table crops because schools and restaurants are closed. 80% of non-chain restaurants surveyed recently said that they may close permanently if they cannot open back up within the next month. The oil industry is crashing, they cannot give away crude oil futures. One in five American workers are living paycheck to paycheck, 69% of all Americans have less than $1000 in the bank for savings.


The simple reality is that while no one wants to see any lives lost to this pandemic, businesses and employees cannot afford to live for much longer with zero revenue.

Some tough decisions are going to have to be made very soon, or we as a nation may actually face a depression even worse than the one brought about by the 1929 market crash. That one lasted for an entire DECADE and at one point in time 75% of all working age Americans were unemployed.

[joshan]

I have to admit, I am curious to see how it goes in Georgia and if their numbers rise much faster than other states once opened.

[motordavid]

^ Do some reading on Kemp, that 'genius' GA gov, that state's unemployment fund, tax rev limits...and reasons/lack of for opening tat/beauty/nail parlors and some restaurants, that if they follow the distancing rules won't be able to serve enough people to keep the lights on in week 2 of 'reopening'.

Very difficult situ all over the US, with enormous econ impact.
How and what and where to slightly crack open the gates is The Question, and I hope the elected geniuses and their twitter/FB oriented staffs have the smarts to react carefully.
Stay Safe, everyone...
GL, mD

[joshan]

Originally Posted by motordavid

^ Do some reading on Kemp, that 'genius' GA gov, that state's unemployment fund, tax rev limits...and reasons/lack of for opening tat/beauty/nail parlors and some restaurants, that if they follow the distancing rules won't be able to serve enough people to keep the lights on in week 2 of 'reopening'.

Not sure I am following. Say they can serve 50% of the people they did before. Isn't 50% of your income better than 0% of your income?

[motordavid]

Not a restaurateur, but we have several friends that have/are in that low margin biz for, for decades...

If your place isn't 'full' with tables turning over 2-6 times per open session, making a real biz like profit is difficult.
Not impossible and there are exceptions, but 'half capacity', esp on Th-Sun eves is not want any joint I know of wants to try and make a go of it.

Add in less staff necessary for that 'half open', (if they can get the former staff or new skilled staff back that wants to be in the 'reopened' environment), ancillary staff, and cooks/chefs, plus supplier/stock/inventory needs, and it's a logistical dance and difficult to make more than an avocation like living under the best econ/operating conditions.

My poke at the GA Gov was that a list of biz that are not crowd dependent/not close in biz environment have not yet gotten the official green light; but one can now go get that long awaited tat/nails done/hair dyed, or eat burgers with the general public again.

[graceC]

To be honest, I probably won't go to hair salon anytime soon, unless the salon workers are diligent about wearing their masks. They're the ones who are in constant close contact with strangers all day long. Luckily I cut my hair a few weeks before this s**t hit the fan, so I can go for another year without cutting my hair if necessary.

[wondermint2]

AG Barr Threatens DOJ Could Take Action Against States With Strict Coronavirus Rules:
https://news.google.com/articles/CAI...S&ceid=US%3Aen

"Attorney General William Barr said in an interview on Tuesday that the Justice Department will consider taking legal action against governors who don’t follow President Trump’s guidelines for reopening the country and continue to impose strict coronavirus lockdowns in their states after the crisis subsides."

[wondermint2]

States shouldn't reopen before May 1, and most should wait several more weeks, coronavirus model shows:
https://news.google.com/articles/CAI...S&ceid=US%3Aen

CNN Updated 3:07 PM EDT, Wed April 22, 2020

"With a handful of states reopening parts of their economies, a coronavirus model routinely cited by the White House warns that no state should be opening before May 1.

South Carolina and Georgia, which are leading the pack to get their economic engines humming again this week, should not open until June 5 and June 19, respectively, according to the model maintained by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. It was updated Tuesday.

Montana has the best forecast at May 1, while the only other states that should open by May 10, the model says, are Alaska, Hawaii, North Carolina, Vermont and West Virginia. North Carolina is the only of the six states with more than 1,000 cases, as of Wednesday afternoon.

About half the states in the country should remain closed until May 25 or later, with Arizona (June 23), South Dakota (June 25), Iowa (June 26), Nebraska (June 30) and North Dakota (July 12) rounding out the bottom of the list.

The reopening dates are based on an assumption that states will have other measures in place -- aggressive testing, contact tracing, isolation, limits on the size of gatherings -- to prevent a resurgence of the virus."

[Ladywithafan]

Originally Posted by graceC

I also don’t understand this whole insistence on testing. It’s not like, once tested negative you’re done. You could have negative testing now and get infected 10 minutes later from somewhere.

Exactly ~ if you think you need a test, you've already got it...I also believe that retail and restaurant employees would have "tested" positive between November and February. We are the front line of contact ~