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Old 12-31-2021, 09:08 AM
 
10,929 posts, read 5,100,984 times
Reputation: 1686

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https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1476906714142318597

"BREAKING: Florida Hospitalizations (4759)

Up 11% from yesterday; 2X last week.
ICU beds (531) Up10% from yesterday.

At this pace, exceed winter wave (8,412) by mid-week & plausibly could reach all-time high (17,367) by mid-January (hoping this is well avoidable).

NOT a mild outbreak."
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Old 12-31-2021, 09:48 AM
 
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Reputation: 1686
Quote:
Originally Posted by wondermint2 View Post
This latest bit of data (see below) would seem to corroborate what I posted earlier today about Sarasota Memorial Hospital.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status...12319940448258

"Just published
@NEJM

Vaccine effectiveness (Pfizer, 2-doses) vs hospitalization was reduced from 93% (CI 90,94) during the Delta wave to 70% (CI 62,76) during the Omicron wave in a large health system in South Africa

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2119270 "
Keep in mind that comparing Covid hospitalizations in the UK to Florida is not an apples to apples comparison. There are differences in age, prevention measures, vaccination, boosters etc. Also boosters are beneficial but they begin to "wear off" after only 10 weeks. The percentage boosted in Sarasota is around 40%, which is lower than the UK.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...t_county=12115

Omicron hospitalisation risk around one third of Delta, UK analysis shows

https://news.yahoo.com/hospitalisati...143102507.html

"In this analysis, the risk of hospitalisation is lower for Omicron cases with symptomatic or asymptomatic infection after 2 and 3 doses of vaccine, with an 81% ... reduction in the risk of hospitalisation after 3 doses compared to unvaccinated Omicron cases," the UKHSA said.
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Old 12-31-2021, 11:14 AM
 
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Reputation: 1686
https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1476974551221288961

"BREAKING Florida:
RECORD 75,962 cases reported today.
RECORD 7-day moving average is now 42,654

Florida's report is an absolute record for any state, ever (date of report)."

----------------------------------------------

https://twitter.com/mvandemar/status...76234135531523

"568,818 cases nationwide, FL accounts for 13.3% of all cases today, and that's with us being beyond our actual testing capability."
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Old 12-31-2021, 01:08 PM
 
402 posts, read 269,617 times
Reputation: 587
As noted, reported cases by state is interesting but of limited utility, as populations vary by age, obesity and percentage vaccinated.

More significant for state comparisons, as well as your own information, is predicted hospital admissions, as they indicated the severity of illness in the population and the effect on the hospital system and society.

The CDC provides state forecasts for the next four weeks to assist health care systems and professionals. You can see their median daily probability projections here:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...2021-12-27.pdf

Median forecasts for Florida (the 50% prediction interval) are in the range of 1400-1750. The current rate reported is about 500.
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Old 12-31-2021, 01:53 PM
 
10,929 posts, read 5,100,984 times
Reputation: 1686
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trying941 View Post
As noted, reported cases by state is interesting but of limited utility, as populations vary by age, obesity and percentage vaccinated.

More significant for state comparisons, as well as your own information, is predicted hospital admissions, as they indicated the severity of illness in the population and the effect on the hospital system and society.

The CDC provides state forecasts for the next four weeks to assist health care systems and professionals. You can see their median daily probability projections here:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...2021-12-27.pdf

Median forecasts for Florida (the 50% prediction interval) are in the range of 1400-1750. The current rate reported is about 500.
Thanks for pointing that out. While it is valid to point out that many FL covid hospitalizations were admitted for another reason and then subsequently tested positive for covid (vs. actually admitted for Covid) - I believe those CDC estimates are too low. For example this is a tweet from Jackson Health System in Miami from today:

https://twitter.com/JacksonHealth/st...08762141118465

"Across the Jackson Health System hospitals, we currently have 348 patients who have tested positive for COVID-19.

Of those, 194 patients – or 56 percent – are admitted to the hospital primarily for non-COVID reasons."

-----------------------------------

*Thus if we extrapolate that 44% are admitted *for* Covid to the 4759 Covid hospitalizations reported today for FL we would get 2094 covid patients actually admitted FOR Covid in Florida (as of today). Also we can look at FL Covid ICU patients to get an idea of severity. Todays FL ICU number is 531. Lower than at this point of the Delta wave but beginning to increase more recently.
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Old 12-31-2021, 04:04 PM
 
10,929 posts, read 5,100,984 times
Reputation: 1686
Quote:
Originally Posted by wondermint2 View Post
This evening the FDOH released their weekly county covid report. Sarasota & Manatee Counties saw big increases in cases - which confirms my assumption that Omicron is now spreading fast in our area. For the next week or so interpreting the data will be tricky because testing sites close down on the holidays.

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_pa...ata_latest.pdf

For the week of Dec. 17 - 23:

Manatee County

Cases = 824 (a 244.7% increase from the previous week's cases of 239)

Test Positivity Ratio = 6.9% (an increase of 4.1% from the previous week)

Sarasota County

Cases = 930 (a 219.58% increase from the previous week's cases of 291)

Test Positivity Ratio = 6.7% (an increase of 3.5% from the previous week)
This evening the FDOH released their weekly FL County report. Sarasota & Manatee Counties saw another large increase in cases to go along with a large rise in the test positivity ratio.

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_pa...ata_latest.pdf

For the week of Dec. 24 - 30:

Manatee County

Cases = 2805 (a increase of 240.4% from the previous week's cases of 824)

Test Positivity Ratio = 18.2% (an increase of 11.3% from the previous week)

Sarasota County

Cases = 2748 (a increase of 195.5% from the previous week's cases of 930)

Test Positivity Ratio = 16.5% (an increase of 9.8% from the previous week)
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Old 12-31-2021, 04:52 PM
 
Location: Sarasota/ Bradenton - University Pkwy area
4,655 posts, read 7,688,202 times
Reputation: 6124
Default pcr corona tests can't tell flu

Food for thought............

Quietly without media attention, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has withdrawn the PCR process as a valid test for detecting and identifying SARS-CoV-2.

“After December 31, 2021, CDC will withdraw the request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, the assay first introduced in February 2020 for detection of SARS-CoV-2 only.”

https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2...Testing_1.html

The CDC admits that the PCR test cannot differentiate between SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses.



My question is...how long have they known this test cannot tell the difference between Coronavirus and the flu?
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Old 12-31-2021, 05:07 PM
 
8,066 posts, read 9,286,869 times
Reputation: 9671
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunshine Rules View Post
Food for thought............

Quietly without media attention, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has withdrawn the PCR process as a valid test for detecting and identifying SARS-CoV-2.

“After December 31, 2021, CDC will withdraw the request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, the assay first introduced in February 2020 for detection of SARS-CoV-2 only.”

https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2...Testing_1.html

The CDC admits that the PCR test cannot differentiate between SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses.



My question is...how long have they known this test cannot tell the difference between Coronavirus and the flu?
That is not what was said. The tests being discontinued can only test for covid. So people need to be swabbed twice to be tested for flu.

The new tests will be able to test for covid and flu simultaneously saving time and patient discomfort.

https://healthfeedback.org/claimrevi...est-is-faulty/
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Old 12-31-2021, 05:08 PM
 
10,929 posts, read 5,100,984 times
Reputation: 1686
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunshine Rules View Post
Food for thought............

Quietly without media attention, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has withdrawn the PCR process as a valid test for detecting and identifying SARS-CoV-2.

“After December 31, 2021, CDC will withdraw the request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, the assay first introduced in February 2020 for detection of SARS-CoV-2 only.”

https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2...Testing_1.html

The CDC admits that the PCR test cannot differentiate between SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses.



My question is...how long have they known this test cannot tell the difference between Coronavirus and the flu?
I believe you are interpreting this the wrong way. The CDC didn't say that the test they are retiring mixes up Flu cases with Covid cases. They said that test they are retiring only tested for Covid. It did not test for the flu at all. That's why they recommend other PCR tests that do indeed distingush between the flu & covid: This is exactly what the CDC said (from your link):

"CDC encourages laboratories to consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses. Such assays can facilitate continued testing for both influenza and SARS-CoV-2 and can save both time and resources as we head into influenza season. Laboratories and testing sites should validate and verify their selected assay within their facility before beginning clinical testing."
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Old 12-31-2021, 05:35 PM
 
10,929 posts, read 5,100,984 times
Reputation: 1686
Bradenton residents wait hours for COVID tests on New Year’s Eve

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/new...eve/ar-AASjRcE

If you want to get a COVID-19 test this holiday weekend, get ready to wait.

Hundreds of people wrapped around the Bradenton Area Convention Center for hours on Friday waiting to get tested.

People told ABC7 they had to wait at least two hours to get through the line. Some had to wait closer to three hours.

There’s been a high demand for COVID-19 tests all over the country ahead of the new year.

In Palmetto, a lot of people in line said they either had to get proof of a negative test in order to secure an upcoming cruise trip or they just wanted to double-check before seeing family members to celebrate the holiday weekend.

The Bradenton Area Convention Center will also be open for testing on New Year’s Day from 9 a.m. until 5 p.m.

Last edited by wondermint2; 12-31-2021 at 06:12 PM..
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