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Last I heard, they have resumed shelling and missile strikes some cities as well as air strikes in Kharkiv. Every day this continues, more and more civilians will be among the dead. It is heart breaking and gut wrenching but that is the kind of war Putin is waging.
The whole thing is beyond heartbreakingly tragic. And here it is, more than 6 months in, still dragging on.
There are people in high places still saying "we need to push through and get the job done" in Ukraine.
The thing is, though - with what? There aren't a whole lot of fresh divisions waiting in the wings, and the days of human-wave attacks are pretty much over.
Ukrainian troops would drive their vehicles right down the roads in full daylight during the Kharkiv offensive, defending themselves form air attack with just shoulder-launched missiles. How can that work? Only because Russian attack aircraft have to go in low, now. And why is that? Because they're running out of precision-guided munitions and have to use dumb bombs and unguided rockets. Russia should have complete air supremacy, by numbers. Yet they don't.
The cupboard is running bare.
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For all we know, Russia could pull itself together and launch a new and more effective offensive. We can quibble about whether that's realistic to expect or not, but realistically, we have very little idea what Russia's capable of when it puts its mind to it.
A shooting war would be a good test case to see what a nation can do, as far as I'm concerned. There are a whole lot of Western intelligence analysts downgrading their estimates of Russia's capabilities right now.
Can they still put up a stubborn fight? Certainly. They're on the defense, which tends to be advantageous, and the war is about to move to territory they've prepared for years. If they've been diligent, that is, so possibly not.
As long as the war stays conventional, Russia doesn't have a whole lot of options that haven't been tried.
A shooting war would be a good test case to see what a nation can do, as far as I'm concerned. There are a whole lot of Western intelligence analysts downgrading their estimates of Russia's capabilities right now.
Can they still put up a stubborn fight? Certainly. They're on the defense, which tends to be advantageous, and the war is about to move to territory they've prepared for years. If they've been diligent, that is, so possibly not.
As long as the war stays conventional, Russia doesn't have a whole lot of options that haven't been tried.
They have other advantages, though. One thing is, that Russia historically has proven very good at outlasting the enemy. If they can last long enough, and the war drags on well into next year, the West could get tired of financing it (with weapons, training, $$). The UN and other Western analysts have said, the war has reached a stalemate, and could go on for years. But it will go on only as long as Ukraine's supporters are willing to pay for it.
The other thing is, that winter is coming. Russia's also far superior at dealing with winter than any Westerners. Germany, Europe's largest country, will be the first to fold. That would at least provide income to pay for new equipment for Russia's side. Winter could change the whole picture.
Yes, the elites are publishing their deeds and plans (and they have some very long term and extensive plans), all the time to Joe the Six Pack, broadcasting them through CNN and BBC, just like they disclose how much money they really have and where they keep them.
You noticed! You're the only other one on this forum who's been concerned about that, besides me. It's just bizarre how they make public announcements about information that should be kept confidential.
A shooting war would be a good test case to see what a nation can do, as far as I'm concerned. There are a whole lot of Western intelligence analysts downgrading their estimates of Russia's capabilities right now.
The same goes for former Soviet ‘friendlies’ where Georgia is pondering whether it’s worth it to try to reclaim territories occupied by Russia and Armenia and Azerbaijan are disregarding a Russian-brokered cease fire to play military slap and tickle with each other again.
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Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth
They have other advantages, though. One thing is, that Russia historically has proven very good at outlasting the enemy. If they can last long enough, and the war drags on well into next year, the West could get tired of financing it (with weapons, training, $$). The UN and other Western analysts have said, the war has reached a stalemate, and could go on for years. But it will go on only as long as Ukraine's supporters are willing to pay for it.
The other thing is, that winter is coming. Russia's also far superior at dealing with winter than any Westerners. Germany, Europe's largest country, will be the first to fold. That would at least provide income to pay for new equipment for Russia's side. Winter could change the whole picture.
The thing with that is that Russia is leaning on a Soviet era toughness reputation and a lot of those Soviet troops who helped create said reputation were Ukrainians rather than ethnic Russians.
So IMO not as much as a historical advantage as it might first seem.
They have other advantages, though. One thing is, that Russia historically has proven very good at outlasting the enemy.
Counterpoint: 1917. Where the grunts got tired of having their lives wasted, shot their officers, then marched back to Russia and shot their leaders.
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If they can last long enough, and the war drags on well into next year, the West could get tired of financing it (with weapons, training, $$).
That was Russia's best chance. But they dropped the ball by turning off the natural gas. By now Europe has had enough and is openly saying that yes, this winter will suck, but it's better than having to dance to Putin's tune. Russia would have been much better off by having Europe get bored.
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The other thing is, that winter is coming. Russia's also far superior at dealing with winter than any Westerners.
They're not fighting in Russia. No one is marching on Moscow. And they took casualties to cold weather in February, because their supply situation is a shambles - not least because everybody, at every level of the supply chain, steals what he can. It's ingrained.
The thing with that is that Russia is leaning on a Soviet era toughness reputation and a lot of those Soviet troops who helped create said reputation were Ukrainians rather than ethnic Russians.
Also noteworthy that a lot of the best Russian military kit was built in - Ukraine.
I see. OK, thanks. Well, Russia could change its strategy, in view of this. It could start bombing the heck out of Ukraine again flattening entire cities. It can't do that in the areas where there are Russian majorities, or sizeable minorities, though.
This wouldn't be a development to celebrate, if it causes Russia to play hardball.
Uh, they already did that in Mariuopol which was viewed as one of the most pro-Russian cities under Ukrainian control after 2014.
They have been doing everything in the air they can, but their pilots are afraid of being shot down, so they don't venture too far into Ukraine.
Russia has done everything it can short of nukes or a mass mobilization. And they probably don't have the supplies and logistics for a mass mobilization.
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