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Biden and the Dems have won if anyone really believes we have High Inflation and energy cost because of Ukraine and the War there. These things existed before this whole thing started. Has it gotten worse since then, yep but it's arguable how much worse as at that point we are arguing what have beens. It seems the Europeans are having more issues because of Ukraine than we are. And that is largely because idiots convinced them it would be greener to use Russian energy than their own.
Europe’s fears of gas shortages heading into winter may have been circumvented, thanks to an unexpected white knight: China.
The world’s largest buyer of liquefied natural gas is reselling some of its surplus LNG cargoes due to weak energy demand at home. This has provided the spot market with an ample supply that Europe has tapped, despite the higher prices.
Russia can self-insure its own oil. Maybe China gets involved in the oil insurance business. Next thing you know the west will have a new competitor for insurance on oil liners. I seem to recall last month Russia was already self-insuring some of their seabound oil.
That sounds reasonable at first sure. But I suspect a lot of people would not trust Russian insurance.
Russian independent polling organization Levada posted survey results on September 1 indicating that while the majority of Russians still support military operations in Ukraine, public support for the war may be gradually declining.
Russian and proxy officials are solidifying their narratives surrounding the Ukrainian counteroffensive to amplify false claims that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast is detrimental to Ukraine’s continued existence.
Key Takeaways
Quote:
Independent polling showed that a majority of Russians still support the Russian war in Ukraine.
Russian and proxy officials are solidifying their narratives surrounding the Ukrainian counteroffensive to claim it will debilitate the Ukrainian military.
Ukrainian officials reported that positional battles are underway in unspecified areas of Kherson Oblast and that Ukrainian forces are continuing to strike Russian ground lines of communications (GLOCs), logistics nodes, and reinforcement efforts throughout southern and central Kherson Oblast.
Russian forces conducted ground attacks south and northeast of Bakhmut and along the western and northern outskirts of Donetsk City.
Russian forces continued targeting Ukrainian rear areas along GLOCs and may be reinforcing the Southern Axis by reallocating equipment from Russian rear areas in Donbas and Crimea.
Ukrainian sources claim that Russia can pull an additional 300,000-350,000 military personnel from support units in Russia, Syria, Armenia, Tajikistan, Nagorno Karabakh, and Kazakhstan. These figures do not accurately represent the fact that support units placed into combat roles will not generate substantial combat power and are necessary for supporting combat, training, and other operations.
Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
Quote:
Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson Vadym Skibitskyi stated that the Russian military can deploy an additional 300,000-350,000 personnel to Ukraine from units within Russia, Syria, Armenia, Tajikistan, Nagorno Karabakh, and Kazakhstan.[70] While Skibitsky’s statement may be technically correct in that Russia has over 300,000 personnel in uniform in these locations, the vast majority of these personnel are support personnel not employable in direct combat roles, are required to maintain permanent positions, and would not generate effective combat power. Some elements that Skibitsky mentioned—such as Russian elements in Syria and Nagorno Karabakh—reportedly already deployed to Ukraine several months ago, and these figures may be distorted. Russian authorities remain unlikely to generate substantial combat power for deployment into Ukraine.[71]
Russian federal subjects (regions) are continuing to recruit and deploy volunteer battalions to Ukraine. Russian daily newspaper Kommersant reported on September 2 that the Nizhny Novgorod-based “Kuzma Minin” tank battalion is deploying to Ukraine in pieces, a report consistent with ISW’s previous assessment that some volunteer battalions are deploying elements without their full complement.[72] Kommersant reported that the ”Kuzma Minin” tank battalion generated about 400 volunteers, a dramatic increase from a previous August 16 report stating that the unit only generated 30 out of 160 desired recruits.[73] It is unlikely the battalion’s recruitment rate dramatically increased by that margin in two weeks, and Nizhny Novgorod authorities may be intentionally inflating or misrepresenting recruitment numbers. The Russian-appointed governor of occupied Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, stated on September 2 that over 1,200 Crimean volunteers are fighting in Ukraine, the first public Russian statement about Crimean volunteer soldiers.[74] It is unclear what formations these volunteer soldiers are fighting in. Aksyonov claimed that an additional 100 Crimeans will deploy to the frontlines in Ukraine by September 12.[75]
Russian force generation efforts are placing additional financial strain on Russian federal subjects. Russian Oryol City officials approved adjustments to the Oryol City budget to allocate 6.2 million rubles (approximately $103,000) to the “special military operations” in the “shortest time possible.”[76] The Oryol Oblast budget previously allocated only 2 million rubles (approximately $33,000) for the war.[77] Deputy Mayor of Oryol City Aleksei Stepanov stated that 41 Oryol residents have enlisted into the 3rd Army Corps after Oryol Oblast had previously introduced a one-time bonus of 100,000 rubles for those who enlist with the 3rd Army Corps, in addition to the standard enlistment bonus of 200,000 rubles.[78]
Russian officials continued mobilizing citizens from occupied territories into the Russian military.[79] Ukrainian sources in Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, posted images of summons calling Zaporizhzhia Oblast residents who received Russian passports to conscription centers.
Many Americans don't care who the Russians invade or how many kids they kill.
As long as American gasoline is 2 bucks a gallon, Putin can bully and kill anybody he pleases.
It's not a matter of not caring. It's a matter of, something actually has to be done in order to stop Putin. Anything short of American boots on the group, with American soldiers wearing them, will not guarantee victory. Who is proposing sending American soldiers there? No one that I know of. So, we play the wait and see game while entering into a suffering contest with Russia. Not much smarter of a move really, but it's not like we have many good options on the table with the current idiot in chief in office. Some wounds are self inflicted and can't be blamed on Putin.
For weeks now, Ukraine has been signaling a counter-offensive in the south. In response, Russia rushed troops to the city of Kherson on the western banks of the Dnipro River.
Then Ukraine attacked the bridges, and continue to attack the barges and pontoon bridges the Russians try to use. I suspect any attempts to resupply from the air is also be met with resistance.
Dan Sabbagh, who reports for the Guardian, tweeted that though it is too early to tell which way the counteroffensive will go, “Estimate Russia has about 20,000 troops in the Kherson pocket."
Yikes!
This does not look good for those Russian soldiers stranded on the Kherson side of the river.
Last edited by GotHereQuickAsICould; 09-03-2022 at 02:57 AM..
As the war grinds on into winter, Russia is sending the message that it will be a cold winter for Europeans that depend on Russia for energy to heat their homes.
Naturally, there is a scramble on to find other, more reliable, sources of energy.
Meanwhile, Russian energy executives are dropping like flies, falling from hospital windows, murder/suicide scenarios that involve wives and children, ... 8 so far this year.
Who is proposing sending American soldiers there? No one that I know of. So, we play the wait and see game while entering into a suffering contest with Russia. Not much smarter of a move really
A suffering contest? Their economy is suffering far worse, their sons are dying by the thousands in stalled war, their military arsenal is being hollowed out, they are isolated internationally, their population decline is accelerating with brain drain, how would this be considered a contest? Outside of a nuclear war:
Worst case for USA and allies = Russia ends up with a 20% slice of Ukraine while getting set back decades economically, politically, and militarily.
Worst case for Russia = they lose eastern Ukraine, then Crimea, then their country collapses.
A suffering contest? Their economy is suffering far worse, their sons are dying by the thousands in stalled war, their military arsenal is being hollowed out, they are isolated internationally, their population decline is accelerating with brain drain, how would this be considered a contest? Outside of a nuclear war:
Worst case for USA and allies = Russia ends up with a 20% slice of Ukraine while getting set back decades economically, politically, and militarily.
Worst case for Russia = they lose eastern Ukraine, then Crimea, then their country collapses.
Or worse case for the USA and allies is that their current political parties in charge lose the soul of the swing voters to the other side.
And the worst case for Russia is that Putin lives his last minutes as a pariah.
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