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That was certainly Russia's preferred outcome. Quick and clean, get a nice little puppet installed, present a fait accompli and hope the West surrender to realpolitik. The relative strength of the involved militaries came as a surprise to everybody.
The cancer rumor was clearly wishful thinking. As for Zelensky, that was a serious underestimation on the part of Putin. Must have seemed a slam-dunk - a comedian who'd been on television playing piano with his dick? He'll run away at the first "Boo". Well, he didn't.
Zelensky knows that if the West gets bored with the conflict, independent Ukraine will cease to exist. So he uses the tools he's given, and he does so well.
A lot hinges on Western Europe's mood this coming winter. There will be snags. But right now, the mood - if I read it correctly - is one of "Putin can go gently caress himself", not so much "Oh no, we never should have gotten involved."
Focusing on destroying Russian control and command centers, weapons depots, and supply routes seems to be paying off in the Kherson region.
According to some, it is doubtful that the Ukrainian military will attack the city of Kherson, too many civilian casualties and for what purpose? It's not like Russian soldiers are likely to turn this into their version of Mariupol. With the bridges blown, they are stuck on the west side until they either surrender or are killed by local partisans. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians can focus on the Russian supply lines to and from Crimea.
From what I can tell, the Ukrainians have made it clear they don't intend to stop until Russian soldiers have been driven out of Crimea. The exodus from Crimea would indicate that people believe the the war is coming their way sooner rather than later.
I've been wondering about that bridge from Russia. Lots of videos posted of steady streams of Russian trucks and weapons. I've read that it is well defended, but still it seems like a bridge that long could be blown somewhere.
Could the plan be to let Russia bring boatloads of their war gear to Crimea where it will be destroyed?
The Ukrainian counteroffensive is making verifiable progress in the south and the east. Ukrainian forces are advancing along several axes in western Kherson Oblast and have secured territory across the Siverskyi Donets River in Donetsk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces have made substantial enough progress to begin evoking more realistic commentary from the Russian milbloggers, who had been hewing very closely to the Kremlin’s optimistic rhetoric until today.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukrainian forces liberated two unnamed settlements in southern Ukraine and one settlement in Donetsk Oblast on September 4.[
Geolocated footage from September 2-3 shows Russian forces firing MLRS rounds from positions on the grounds of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) within 1km of a nuclear reactor.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia is ready to negotiate Moscow’s conditions for ending the Russian war in Ukraine on September 4, but the Kremlin is maintaining its maximalist goals to “denazify” Ukraine.
Key Takeaways
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukrainian forces liberated two unnamed settlements in southern Ukraine and one settlement in Donetsk Oblast. ISW has independently confirmed the liberation of the settlement in Donetsk Oblast and one of the settlements in Kherson Oblast.
Geolocated footage shows Russian forces firing MLRS rounds from positions on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs), ammunition depots, and key positions to exhaust Russian forces and restrain Russian combat power.
The Ukrainian liberation of Vysokopillya ignited critical discussions among some Russian milbloggers while the Russian Defense Ministry maintained that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct “unsuccessful attempts” to advance.
Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) 127th Regiment of the 1st Army Corps personnel reportedly refused to fight due to a lack of supplies.
Ukrainian forces regained territory on the left bank of the Siverskyi Donets River in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Bakhmut and west of Donetsk City.
Russian forces are reportedly moving military assets to areas situated along major ground lines of communication (GLOCS) in rear areas in Zaporizhia Oblast.
Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
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Russian authorities are continuing to struggle to recruit military personnel within occupied territories. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Wagner personnel are recruiting convicts from correctional colony No. 124 in Donetsk City.[75] Head of the Donetsk Higher Combined Arms Command School Mikhail Tikhonov stated that the Donetsk Higher Combined Arms Command School suffered a shortage of applicants in 2022, as only 44 people entered the course and only 40 graduated.
Activity in Russian-occupied Areas
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Russian occupation authorities in occupied southern Ukraine are continuing filtration and passportization measures to crack down on partisan activity in rear areas during the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Occupation authorities in Tavriisk (immediately west of Nova Kakhovka and on the left bank of the Dnipro River) are reportedly gathering civilian data to intimidate locals into revealing members of the partisan movement.[77] Ukraine’s Resistance Center reported that Russian forces are blocking humanitarian convoys from entering occupied Zaporizhia Oblast through the checkpoint at Vasylivka to coerce civilians into accepting Russian passports in exchange for humanitarian aid.[78] The Ukrainian Ministry for Reintegration of Occupied Territories announced on August 22 that it is restricting all passage in and out of occupied southern Ukraine through Vasylivka, Zaporizhia Oblast (the only checkpoint for such passage) to transit for humanitarian purposes only, likely because of the occupation administrations’ coercion and passportization efforts.[79]
Russian occupation authorities are increasing measures to force Ukrainian civilians to send their children to occupation administration-run schools. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that occupation propaganda events to mark the first day of school in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast on September 1 failed to garner civilian support.[80] Ukrainian Advisor to Kherson Oblast Military Administration Head Serhiy Khlan reported that occupation authorities in Henichensk, Kherson Oblast are blackmailing civilians into accepting Russian passports and providing the data of civilians who left occupied territories to coerce civilians into working for occupation schools.[81] Khlan stated that Ukrainian parents do not want to send their children to occupation schools after the school year started on September 1.[82] Ukrainian Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov stated that occupation-run schools are facing low attendance issues.
I can't imagine the amount of material it takes to sustain a 20,000 man force while they are in combat - or even NOT in combat, for that matter!
And here come the Ukrainians, bombing their supplies, ammo dumps and command centers. No one left in charge. Nothing to eat. No reason to return fire except self preservation....
But it has to be done. Ukraine says they are advancing slowly, with purpose so that their advances are permanent.
The Crimea bridge will be destroyed when the time is right. I'd guess the Ukrainians wouldn't want to trap an undue number of Russians in Crimea when they would really rather be back home.
I can't imagine the amount of material it takes to sustain a 20,000 man force while they are in combat - or even NOT in combat, for that matter!
And here come the Ukrainians, bombing their supplies, ammo dumps and command centers. No one left in charge. Nothing to eat. No reason to return fire except self preservation....
But it has to be done. Ukraine says they are advancing slowly, with purpose so that their advances are permanent.
The Crimea bridge will be destroyed when the time is right. I'd guess the Ukrainians wouldn't want to trap an undue number of Russians in Crimea when they would really rather be back home.
Or maybe they are waiting for the Russians to bring all their missiles, etc. over to get blown up.
Russia Privately Warns of Deep and Prolonged Economic Damage
* Confidential document contrasts with upbeat public statements
* Report says key sectors face sharp drop in output, brain drain
The article discusses various sectors so is an interesting read. To summarize:
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“With diminished access to Western technologies, a wave of foreign corporate divestment and demographic headwinds ahead, the country’s potential growth is set to shrink to 0.5%-1.0% in the next decade. Thereafter, it will shrink further still, down to just above zero by 2050.
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