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70 years after the cease fire in Korea through good and bad economic times, the "end of history" when the Soviet Union fell there seems to still be an American army there.
70 years after the cease fire in Korea through good and bad economic times, the "end of history" when the Soviet Union fell there seems to still be an American army there.
I love the story of The Korean War.
When someone said we should "learn from history" and look at what happened in Afghanistan, I think we should "learn from history" and look at what South Koreans were able to do because we stayed. Carter wanted to pull out, remember.
Ukraine will be supported for as long as Ukraine chooses to fight. Russia will be boycotted long after the war ends. There are 29 countries sending weapons to Ukraine, 43 countries participating in sanctions, and 1200 companies boycotting. Machinery, automobiles, aircraft, computers, oil field service companies, credit card services - there is hardly a field of commerce that is left untouched by the world wide boycott of Russia. Most of the countries that support Russia have nothing to offer and therefore do not matter.
A lot of people and news outlets are getting fed up with Zelensky and his antics. Vogue magazine. Give me a break. He's fame sponge soaking up money and asking for More of everything each day that passes. Another I$rael clone para$ite we don't need. They drain us dry as it is. Jackson Hinkle on Rumble has Zelensky's number, and exposes him quite effectively.
I am reminded of the Korean conflict. The front moved a great deal and ended in a draw nearly where it started. They never actually formally ended that conflict, it technically is still in play.
It is always possible that will happen in this conflict.
But it looks like Russia is losing steam. Russia should have been able to roll over Ukraine in a matter of weeks, but they have been slowed down considerably, their gains are measured in meters.
Now Russia is having serious logistical challenges and their opponents are highly motivated. It is too early to predict Russia losing much occupied ground from this point, but that is still a possibility.
Ukraine is fighting like their back is to the wall, which is understandable. Ukraine knows that whatever cease fire or peace agreement they make with Russia will eventually be violated by Russia, and they will have to do this all over again. I don't think they want that prospect hanging over their heads.
Small wonder one of the demands from Russia is that Ukraine become de-militarized. It's like putting the country on death row.
I think it is far more likely that this will go for a long, long time and will be like Russia's version of Vietnam or Afghanistan. This is how great powers are defeated, they lose the will to continue.
Yeah it’s possible I assume, but I seriously doubt it. Ukraine is running on western weapons alone, that will not be never ending. We will not fund a losing war while we enter a recession and people worry about paying for food. Ukraine will be cutoff long before Russia collapses. One thing Russian has is commodities, they can feed and power their country forever and their economy seems ok despite a complete break from the west. They have China to rely on as well, the east seems to be the rising power in the world right now while the west seems to be in a planned decline.
See, this is how you and I differ, GTB. You're thinking very black-and-white about the situation. The future looks pretty clear to you. Either that, or you like to vote for the good guys, no matter the complexities and uncertainties involved.
I read the two posts you responded to, and saw that both were making good points. We won't know which view is the right one until it's over, and it may not be over for a long time (the UN said the same thing weeks ago). Or it might be over once "the West" folds after tiring of supplying arms, or after it finds a new crisis to distract itself with, or as winter arrives, and they need gas for heat. None of us here (or anywhere, really) has a corner on the crystal ball market in this regard.
However, one interesting element in the question regarding how dedicated "the West" is to the cause they're supporting, is NATO suddenly finding itself with two new applicants for membership. I think, if Sweden and Finland join, they won't let the rest of Europe walk away from the issue. The whole reason they joined, is to work on containing Russia. So it will be very interesting to see how things play out inside NATO, as the war drags on.
If Germany becomes the weak point in the group, will the two new members try to talk it into staying the course sanctions-wise? Will they give everyone pep talks, if the group starts to falter, as the arms donations become too expensive? (Or Z becomes too much of an annoyance?) If NATO does start backing away at some point, will the new members become disillusioned, and quit the alliance?
The dynamic inside NATO could get interesting, once the new kids join the club. Well, and Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia will also be pushing for unity and commitment to pushing Russia back. They've already made their position crystal clear.
See, this is how you and I differ, GTB. You're thinking very black-and-white about the situation. The future looks pretty clear to you. Either that, or you like to vote for the good guys, no matter the complexities and uncertainties involved.
I read the two posts you responded to, and saw that both were making good points. We won't know which view is the right one until it's over, and it may not be over for a long time (the UN said the same thing weeks ago). Or it might be over once "the West" folds after tiring of supplying arms, or after it finds a new crisis to distract itself with, or as winter arrives, and they need gas for heat. None of us here (or anywhere, really) has a corner on the crystal ball market in this regard.
However, one interesting element in the question regarding how dedicated "the West" is to the cause they're supporting, is NATO suddenly finding itself with two new applicants for membership. I think, if Sweden and Finland join, they won't let the rest of Europe walk away from the issue. The whole reason they joined, is to work on containing Russia. So it will be very interesting to see how things play out inside NATO, as the war drags on.
If Germany becomes the weak point in the group, will the two new members try to talk it into staying the course sanctions-wise? Will they give everyone pep talks, if the group starts to falter, as the arms donations become too expensive? (Or Z becomes too much of an annoyance?) If NATO does start backing away at some point, will the new members become disillusioned, and quit the alliance?
The dynamic inside NATO could get interesting, once the new kids join the club. Well, and Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia will also be pushing for unity and commitment to pushing Russia back. They've already made their position crystal clear.
Those "new kids" are a huge thumbs up to join NATO...imo ...great!
Finland ...small in numbers but with a formidable military.
Sweden ...again, relatively small population but an economic powerhouse.
They are not just a random 2 countries...but two of the best countries in the world.
Usually ranking in the top 10, if not the top 5, in surveys of any metric you can think of.
At the end of the day....Russia is just one country, albeit big, and has nukes,
but has it's limitations, as can be seen clearly in this comflict/war.
Putin is not Superman. Some posters on here are under the impression that Russia
stronger than it actually is...that it can not lose...which is certainly not true.
I don't have a crystal ball but I am firmly on Ukraine's side.
Russian forces appear able to sustain only two significant offensive operations in Ukraine at this time, one attempting to seize Siversk and the other advancing on Bakhmut.
These operations have focused on advances in the Siversk, Donetsk Oblast, direction from Verkhnokamianka and Bilohorivka and in the Bakhmut direction from the areas of Novoluhanske and the Vuhlehirska Thermal Power Plant since the end of the operational pause on July 16.[1] Russian forces have committed enough resources to conduct near-daily ground assaults and to seize territory on these two axes but have been unable to sustain a similar offensive operational tempo or to make similar territorial gains elsewhere in Ukraine. The Russian offensive, therefore, remains likely to culminate before seizing any other major urban areas in Ukraine.
Key Takeaways
Quote:
Russian forces currently appear able to sustain only two significant offensive operations in Ukraine, both in Donetsk Oblast, and the Russian offensive remains likely to culminate before seizing additional significant population centers.
Ukrainian forces may have launched a localized counterattack southwest of Izyum.
Russian forces attacked settlements east of Siversk and northeast and southeast of Bakhmut.
Ground fighting is ongoing north of Kharkiv City.
Ukrainian forces struck the Antonivskyi Bridge for the third time in ten days on July 27, likely rendering it unusable.
The Mari El Republic north of Kazan sent two volunteer battalions to train and is forming a third battalion to deploy to Ukraine.
Russian occupation authorities are importing Russians to work in occupied territories due to a lack of Ukrainian collaborators.
Mariupol occupation authorities continue withholding humanitarian aid to force civilians to cooperate with and work for the occupation administration.
Activity in Russian-occupied Areas
Quote:
Ukrainians in occupied territories are refusing to collaborate with Russian occupation officials en masse, forcing the Kremlin to import Russian citizens to fulfill basic tasks. Russian officials continue to struggle to procure enough labor to reopen businesses, clear rubble, or establish occupation bureaucracies in occupied Ukrainian territory. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on July 26 that the three branches of the Russian Promsvyazbank failed to open as expected in Kherson Oblast because insufficient numbers of Ukrainian civilians agreed to work there—Promsvyazbank and other financial institutions are key to the Kremlin’s plans to replace the hryvnia with the ruble in occupied Ukrainian territories.[39] The Kremlin has begun to transfer Russian government officials into new roles in occupied Ukrainian oblasts; the Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on July 26 that the Kremlin appointed former Moscow Deputy Head of Criminal Investigations Department Oleg Koltunov as the head of the Zaporizhia Oblast Occupation Administration’s Ministry of Internal Affairs.[40] The Ukrainian Resistance Center also reported that Russian authorities have insufficient medical personnel in Luhansk Oblast because locals refuse to cooperate, forcing the Kremlin to import Russian doctors from Novosibirsk and Volgograd on a rotational basis.[41]
Russian occupation officials are likely leveraging food aid and other humanitarian assistance to force occupied populations to cooperate with and work for Russian occupiers. The Mariupol City Council announced on July 27 that Russian forces stopped providing humanitarian assistance to Mariupol residents to force residents to demine and clear rubble on behalf of the occupation administration in exchange for food, as ISW forecasted in June.[42]
Russian occupation officials are additionally continuing to mobilize faux grassroots movements to set conditions for a falsified referendum on the Russian annexation of occupied territories. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on July 26 that Russian public relations specialists and political technologists have deployed to occupied Melitopol.[43] The center reported that their first objective is to create a public movement called “We Are Together with Russia” to rally in support of the falsified referendum that occupation officials likely aim to hold as soon as September. The GUR reported on July 26 that occupation forces released a 14-page booklet for pro-Russian supporters and collaborators in Ukraine entitled “Handbook for Ukrainian Citizens on Organizing Resistance to the Kyiv Puppet Government.”[44] The guide advises pro-Russian Ukrainians to disrupt general societal functioning in many ways, including by giving confusing and illogical answers when asked for advice, conducting Ukrainian conversations slowly to force the interlocutor to offer to switch to Russian, inserting anecdotes to distract from decision-making conversations, not reporting signs of corruption, using extra medicine, creating superfluous documents and requests, and spending more time in the bathroom at work.
Those "new kids" are a huge thumbs up to join NATO...imo ...great!
Finland ...small in numbers but with a formidable military.
Sweden ...again, relatively small population but an economic powerhouse.
They are not just a random 2 countries...but two of the best countries in the world.
Usually ranking in the top 10, if not the top 5, in surveys of any metric you can think of.
At the end of the day....Russia is just one country, albeit big, and has nukes,
but has it's limitations, as can be seen clearly in this comflict/war.
Putin is not Superman. Some posters on here are under the impression that Russia
stronger than it actually is...that it can not lose...which is certainly not true.
I don't have a crystal ball but I am firmly on Ukraine's side.
I'm firmly on Ukraine's side, too. That doesn't require me to blind myself to the difficulties it's facing, and the somewhat tenuous (not to mention--rather belated) nature of the support they're getting. It's been a very touch-and-go effort so far, with Ukraine having to give up ground. Whether or not that bodes ill for the future is very hard to say.
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