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Of course, there is the war in Ukraine, and there is this:
A high-ranking Russian helicopter pilot with the call sign "Bes" was murdered in Voronezh on Friday after someone fired 7 bullets at him while he was standing at a bus stop
This information was revealed by the Russian "Fighterbomber" channel, and although officials attempted to cover the story up, Fighterbomber confirmed this morning that Bes had died in hospital from his wounds.
This pilot not only took part in the bombing of Ukrainian cities, he was also passing his experience to student pilots.
Great information.
But be aware you are mostly speaking to trolls and zealots who will simply skim your reply for what they perceive as errors or weak spots. Real information is lost on them.
Today, Russia must "stand back and shoot" and I really don't see that changing. It could have changed last year, but this year Ukrainian defense capabilities are much stronger and Russia cannot afford to lose much more of its assets.
Earlier this year, at the annual arms show Russia did not take a single order for new equipment. It wouldn't have mattered much, anyway, since they cannot manufacture new aircraft for themselves, let alone someone else. And now the price of Urals oil is again approaching their production cost, eliminating the profit from the sale.
These days, wars are fought in many ways.
Your comments about the 17th parallel reminds me that while the Ukrainian army has the ability to rotate troops in and out of combat, Russia does not - or at least they don't take advantage of it. It looks to me like being drafted in Russia is a ticket to the front where you will stay until the war is over or you are dead.
I do not believe there will ever be a negotiating table. Nor do I believe either side will surrender. We may see a day when Russia officially withdraws, but they will continue to fight the war in other non-military ways. They will continue with border skirmishes for a very long time.
The reason why there are not as much Ukrainian civilian deaths as anticipated is because of Russian incompetence, not because Poutine have any care about moralities in wars. Those who believe that Poutine ordered the Russian army to minimize civilian deaths are either deluded or outright willing propagandists.
Attacking civilian targets is a military decision, but civilian targets are essentially political, not military, targets. That distinction is not as pedantic as some may believe. Military targets are generally mobile if the military want. An army can literally uproot everything, from ammo depots to soldiers, and move to a different location, making life harder for the enemy. You cannot do that to a city.
Civilizations depends on cities. Being agricultural is the start of a civilization. Farms attracts people and this is how communities are borne. Townships provides the seeds of cities, and cities are where businesses, arts and cultures, and education truly grows. These items cannot be mobile. They can be replicated, but never mobile. So in a war, if you want to demoralize a people, attack their cities. You are saying that their defense -- the army -- is no good. Nothing is beyond your reach. As with Desert Storm, you do not have to actually kill people, but destroying/damaging their infrastructures such as means of transport, and electrical and water treatment plants will get the same message across. In a way, attacking these civilian targets is more humane than killing people directly if you are working to win a war.
From a strictly technical perspective, air force people everywhere were surprised at how incompetently Russia used the VKS. Russia is supposed to be the 2nd most capable military in the world. The US is the first. If the VKS was used as effectively as how allied airpower was in Desert Storm, Ukraine would have submitted within 6 months at worst. But because the VKS was so badly used, Russia had no choice but to use far less accurate artillery and in doing so, reduced so many Ukrainian cities to rubble and killing indiscriminately Ukrainians. Even so, Russia did not consistently reproduced that kind of attack everywhere else in Ukraine, so the Ukrainians did not feel like they were at their end, and with the Ukrainian military still being mobile enough, motivated, and their logistics from the outside intact, there is no reason for Ukraine to submit. In other words, the unique Ukrainian culture and people remains largely secured.
From a military perspective, yrs from now, military academies everywhere will teach their students on the contrasts between Desert Storm and the Russo-Ukraine War and how NOT to conduct large scale warfare. The air force academies will focus on airpower employment in both wars and the VKS will not fare well in analyses. Desert Storm will be THE standard for a long time on how to successfully conduct a war to quickly defeat an opponent.
For those who believe that somehow Russia was being self restrained because of the unexpected lower than anticipated Ukrainian civilian deaths, you really do not know warfare as well as you think. Sorry.
To further expand on understanding a war's targeting decision, am going to use Sept 11, 2001 aka '9/11'. It may seems odd, but it is not.
Why did the 9/11 attackers hit the Pentagon?
Between the Pentagon and the Museum Of Modern Art (MOMA), which is a 'military' target? Neither. Surprised? You should be.
While the Pentagon is the institutional head of the US military, the Pentagon is essentially an ADMINISTRATIVE location. War doctrines, training programs, standards, etc... are already disseminated and indoctrinated at every level of the US military. If somehow the SecDef and the entire JCS were killed on 9/11, that would be more like a paint scratch, not even a nick, on an Abrams tank. On the other hand, a true military target would be something like Cannon AFB in New Mexico, or the Cheyenne Mountain Complex in Colorado, or Pearl Harbor. Every flag rank combatant commander, meaning from one-star and up, already knew what to do in the event of a war.
The Pentagon and the World Trade towers were SYMBOLS of some specifics of US culture. The Pentagon -- military. The WTC towers -- finance and economics. If either the White House or Capitol was hit -- politics. Al-Qaeda could have gone after any true military installation but would require more resources, including time, to execute. Instead, civilian targets that have significant SYMBOLISM of America were easier particularly in terms of access.
The reason why there are not as much Ukrainian civilian deaths as anticipated is because of Russian incompetence, not because Poutine have any care about moralities in wars. Those who believe that Poutine ordered the Russian army to minimize civilian deaths are either deluded or outright willing propagandists.
Attacking civilian targets is a military decision, but civilian targets are essentially political, not military, targets. That distinction is not as pedantic as some may believe. Military targets are generally mobile if the military want. An army can literally uproot everything, from ammo depots to soldiers, and move to a different location, making life harder for the enemy. You cannot do that to a city.
Civilizations depends on cities. Being agricultural is the start of a civilization. Farms attracts people and this is how communities are borne. Townships provides the seeds of cities, and cities are where businesses, arts and cultures, and education truly grows. These items cannot be mobile. They can be replicated, but never mobile. So in a war, if you want to demoralize a people, attack their cities. You are saying that their defense -- the army -- is no good. Nothing is beyond your reach. As with Desert Storm, you do not have to actually kill people, but destroying/damaging their infrastructures such as means of transport, and electrical and water treatment plants will get the same message across. In a way, attacking these civilian targets is more humane than killing people directly if you are working to win a war.
From a strictly technical perspective, air force people everywhere were surprised at how incompetently Russia used the VKS. Russia is supposed to be the 2nd most capable military in the world. The US is the first. If the VKS was used as effectively as how allied airpower was in Desert Storm, Ukraine would have submitted within 6 months at worst. But because the VKS was so badly used, Russia had no choice but to use far less accurate artillery and in doing so, reduced so many Ukrainian cities to rubble and killing indiscriminately Ukrainians. Even so, Russia did not consistently reproduced that kind of attack everywhere else in Ukraine, so the Ukrainians did not feel like they were at their end, and with the Ukrainian military still being mobile enough, motivated, and their logistics from the outside intact, there is no reason for Ukraine to submit. In other words, the unique Ukrainian culture and people remains largely secured.
From a military perspective, yrs from now, military academies everywhere will teach their students on the contrasts between Desert Storm and the Russo-Ukraine War and how NOT to conduct large scale warfare. The air force academies will focus on airpower employment in both wars and the VKS will not fare well in analyses. Desert Storm will be THE standard for a long time on how to successfully conduct a war to quickly defeat an opponent.
For those who believe that somehow Russia was being self restrained because of the unexpected lower than anticipated Ukrainian civilian deaths, you really do not know warfare as well as you think. Sorry.
And those who think he did not, are still clueless about this war, its nature, and what Russian objectives were in Ukraine back in February 2022.
And those who think he did not, are still clueless about this war, its nature, and what Russian objectives were on Ukraine back in February 2022.
Enlighten me, what were they then? What are they now?
Personally, I'm willing to let this play out for another year or two to see if this can become a war of maneuver rather than attrition. Otherwise a reasonable peace deal should be sought.
Russian forces have likely committed to offensive operations in multiple sectors of the front during a period of the most challenging weather of the fall-winter season in an effort to seize and retain the initiative prior to the Russian presidential elections in March 2024. Russian forces are currently pursuing offensive efforts along much of the frontline in Ukraine, particularly along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border, near Bakhmut, and towards Avdiivka as Ukrainian military officials have repeatedly noted, and Russian forces are also conducting continuous ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The current pace of fighting across the entire frontline in Ukraine is generally consistent with ISW's standing assessment that Russian forces have been trying to regain the theater-level initiative since at least mid-November 2023. Recent Ukrainian military official statements further suggest that Russian forces have succeeded in seizing the initiative along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border, near Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City axis, while Ukrainian forces maintain the initiative in key areas of southern Ukraine, as evidenced by continued Ukrainian counterattacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast and the sustained, larger-than-usual Ukrainian presence in east bank Kherson Oblast.
Back then, it was all about "changing government in Ukraine," both in Kiev and on local levels. Particularly starting with local levels in each and every of those Russian-speaking regions at least.
The whole idea was to replace the local govs, and let the life of Ukrainian general population to go about as uninterrupted as possible.
Quote:
What are they now?
Now, after the realization of Putin's wrong initial calculations, it all became a one big gamble, which depends on few factors, what Russians will accept as "victory" - real or perceived.
Things like "how fast the West will run out of funds to prompt Ukraine," how soon it will want to return to "normal uninterrupted world economy."
How many people Putin will want to sacrifice for further incursion into Ukraine ( be that Kharkov or Odessa, or anything even further.)
How long Zelensky gov. will hang on - yet another question.
Things like that.
Quote:
Personally, I'm willing to let this play out for another year or two to see if this can become a war of maneuver rather than attrition. Otherwise a reasonable peace deal should be sought.
The question here is who/what finds reasonable in this situation.
Or not.
I would say at this point "what's that Putin will agree to settle for."
Enlighten me, what were they then? What are they now?
Personally, I'm willing to let this play out for another year or two to see if this can become a war of maneuver rather than attrition. Otherwise a reasonable peace deal should be sought.
I'm hearing noises about a Ukrainian "dig in", as they become defensive. That may be the right move. Let the Russians charge into hell if they wish, while the Ukrainians rest and resupply.
There are enough long range Ukrainian artillery pieces and missiles to keep the Russian lines broken and poorly supplied. Meanwhile, sanctions, sabotage, assassinations and low oil prices will pressure Russia.
If support decreases for Ukraine that will be fine. Ukraine will be able to wait until they have what they need. Asthe man said in "Last of The Mohicans"..... "Stay Alive! - That would be my approach.
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