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Umm-hmm.
The problem is Ukraine is being supported by 30 odd countries and the Russian economy is suffering as a result of brain drain, cost of war, loss of working age men. Stalemate, if it exists, favors Ukraine. If that were not true, Putin would not go begging for the suspension of sanctions.
Preston Stewart just did an analysis of an article written by Michael Kofman and Rob Lee on the war. It's good stuff. Overly optimistic Ukraine supporters probably won't like it. Russian bots might not like it either.
Russia/Turkey's talk on the grain deal went nowhere. Putin's list of demands amount to blackmail, according to a Ukrainian official.
Ukraine's future defense minister is a Crimean Tartar and a Muslim. It looks like Zenlensky is setting him up for even bigger roles in the future. When Ukraine takes back Crimea, he might have a big role there. Turkey has a long history with Crimea and the Tartar people. His background should help bring Ukraine and Turkey even closer. And finally his Muslim background might help bring Muslim countries to Ukraine's side.
As he points out that right now Russia simply has a "dearth of forces available" i.e. quality versus quantity which is something that is not being reported by Russian propaganda. Also they predicted Attrition on both sides back in March which is attached in the article.
Dearth means scarcity. ISW has been saying Russia has a "dearth" of forces since before the counteroffensive began. The only thing new is the claim that Russia has taken significant casualties as a result of fighting in front of their defensive lines(IE to push Ukraine out of any positions it was able to capture). But that is more-or-less what it said a month ago when I commented last time.
It does claim Russian forces are being "attrited", but in absolute terms all that means is "killed". Basically, it is saying Ukrainians are killing Russians, duh. But at what exchange ratios? If Russians are being killed because they start at their defensive positions then push past them, then what is happening to Ukrainians who are outgunned and fighting in the open the entire time?
The western view seems to be that Ukraine can take losses of 10 to 1 and still win the attrition war. Which might be true if they were Vietnam.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnBoy64
And Russia is belly aching about the lack of counter battery capabilities.
They've been bellyaching about counterbattery this entire war. They believe any functioning Ukrainian artillery is too much(which is kind of understandable).
Preston Stewart just did an analysis of an article written by Michael Kofman and Rob Lee on the war. It's good stuff. Overly optimistic Ukraine supporters probably won't like it. Russian bots might not like it either.
a good honest assessment..
1. Ukraine still can't effectively operate their counter offensive at the battalion level..
2. the first counter offensive assault was the attempted breakthrough, not 'probing attacks' but it failed..
3. big mistakes on the battlefield during the initial counter offensive launch by the Ukes..some units getting lost, some coming later than 2 hours after it started..friendly fire against each other and other costly mistakes made..
4. F-16's or any other 'game changer' weapons system sent to Ukraine will not actually be a real game changer..
5. the longer the war drags on, the more it looks like it will do exactly that..
Russia/Turkey's talk on the grain deal went nowhere. Putin's list of demands amount to blackmail, according to a Ukrainian official.
Ukraine's future defense minister is a Crimean Tartar and a Muslim. It looks like Zenlensky is setting him up for even bigger roles in the future. When Ukraine takes back Crimea, he might have a big role there. Turkey has a long history with Crimea and the Tartar people. His background should help bring Ukraine and Turkey even closer. And finally his Muslim background might help bring Muslim countries to Ukraine's side.
I go along with that. The guy is not a military man at all - his degrees and experience are in business. That's exactly what Ukraine/Crimea needs. If Crimea can become an important import/export hub for Ukraine instead of a military hub for Russia it will never change hands again.
there'll be no bridges to cross when that happens..lol..KABOOM!!!..
It was an analogue of the Russian proverb - don't say it before you do it. Don't you know her as an American?
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