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It's interesting that with India's unequal healthcare system, they still have a lower official death rate for Covid19 than we do (1% vs 2%, about half). This cannot be explained by undetected cases, since that would tend to increase the death rate as usually the most severe cases are detected vs the milder ones.
It's interesting that with India's unequal healthcare system, they still have a lower official death rate for Covid19 than we do (1% vs 2%, about half). This cannot be explained by undetected cases, since that would tend to increase the death rate as usually the most severe cases are detected vs the milder ones.
Seeing as they are pulling bodies of suspected COVID-19 victims from the Ganges I suspect their statistics should be viewed with more than a wee bit of skepticism.
Seeing as they are pulling bodies of suspected COVID-19 victims from the Ganges I suspect their statistics should be viewed with more than a wee bit of skepticism.
I get why India statistics cannot be compared with a country like the USA and especially a country like Israel. But I'd still say odds are better they're capturing more of their severe cases in their statistics than their mild ones. Which would push the death rate up. Something like what we see with Mexico and their 8% death rate because they only test someone in a hospital.
As for the pulling bodies from the Ganges. Happens every year in India. They're overcrowded, full of poor people without access to health care, and on top of that the sick believe the Ganges will cure them.
But this is a Covid year, so some journalist sensationalized a yearly occurrence to something apocalyptic. Either out of ignorance, or desire to be clickbait.
It's interesting that with India's unequal healthcare system, they still have a lower official death rate for Covid19 than we do (1% vs 2%, about half). This cannot be explained by undetected cases, since that would tend to increase the death rate as usually the most severe cases are detected vs the milder ones.
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzy_q2010
Seeing as they are pulling bodies of suspected COVID-19 victims from the Ganges I suspect their statistics should be viewed with more than a wee bit of skepticism.
I thought I would respond to Golden a few times about posted statistics but then didn't as everything is politics here on this forum. I know you asked someone "If you have ever been to India"..well let me ask you "Have you ever been to India or lived there". I am from India and still go there occasionally and have family roots and talk to them everyday so hear my perspective.
The numbers you see here are the numbers from big hospitals in big cities. I can almost guarantee these do not include numbers from rural India which is what most of India is. If a person dies in rural areas you don't have to report it right away actually it takes a few months before immediate family does that and usually it happens when property of diseased transfer hands. As I said it takes a few months in normal circumstances now it may really be after pandemic is over or has subsided quite a bit. This means a major fraction of rural deaths are NOT counted. In 2020, Modi behaved much better than our previous dear Lord and he imposed lockdowns and most importantly cut the access to rural area completely and therefore rural India had very little of covid. This was the main reason why deaths were lower last time. This time it is very different as it just went everywhere and due to local elections it became really very homogeneous at least in the area where elections were held. Kumbh didn't help eaither as late as April 27th, 30K people gathered at Kumbh location! In my teeny-tiny village of about 3000 population, 10 people are dead already and I can assure you they are not counted everywhere. I have childhood friends there and they tell me the same thing.
So no the narrow peak you see in covid is NOT real and the amplitude of this curve is NOT where you think it is. I would also include that unlike china, India may not try to hide the real statistics but that is how it is there.
I thought I would respond to Golden a few times about posted statistics but then didn't as everything is politics here on this forum. I know you asked someone "If you have ever been to India"..well let me ask you "Have you ever been to India or lived there". I am from India and still go there occasionally and have family roots and talk to them everyday so hear my perspective.
The numbers you see here are the numbers from big hospitals in big cities. I can almost guarantee these do not include numbers from rural India which is what most of India is. If a person dies in rural areas you don't have to report it right away actually it takes a few months before immediate family does that and usually it happens when property of diseased transfer hands. As I said it takes a few months in normal circumstances now it may really be after pandemic is over or has subsided quite a bit. This means a major fraction of rural deaths are NOT counted. In 2020, Modi behaved much better than our previous dear Lord and he imposed lockdowns and most importantly cut the access to rural area completely and therefore rural India had very little of covid. This was the main reason why deaths were lower last time. This time it is very different as it just went everywhere and due to local elections it became really very homogeneous at least in the area where elections were held. Kumbh didn't help eaither as late as April 27th, 30K people gathered at Kumbh location! In my teeny-tiny village of about 3000 population, 10 people are dead already and I can assure you they are not counted everywhere. I have childhood friends there and they tell me the same thing.
So no the narrow peak you see in covid is NOT real and the amplitude of this curve is NOT where you think it is. I would also include that unlike china, India may not try to hide the real statistics but that is how it is there.
You are probably correct the numbers not showing the totals:
It's for sure deaths are undercounted, as are cases. But it's also for sure, cases are falling as well.
The reported cases and deaths are falling but without knowing how bad the undercount is there is no way to know whether the reports mean the situation is improving or not.
The reported cases and deaths are falling but without knowing how bad the undercount is there is no way to know whether the reports mean the situation is improving or not.
The trend is what's important here. Also, it's reasonable to believe that for high cases, the undercount discrepancy will be larger, especially when we have a downward trend in cases.
The situation is improving, even if the reported cases are just a fraction of the true case load.
It's for sure deaths are undercounted, as are cases. But it's also for sure, cases are falling as well.
How do you know cases are falling? To find cases requires testing. Do you know how many people are being tested in India? I'd guess you don't.
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