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Oh, there'll be areas that continue to experience growth: Las Cruces, Abq, and Santa Fe. And some small rural communities will continue to lose population. But that isn't really change. That's been the case for the past several decades.
I see all three growing but Las Cruces and ABQ racing away from Santa Fe in terms of growth. A combination of geography, large blocs of Pueblo or Federal land and growth restrictions tied to water rights is already severely limiting new home construction in Santa Fe City and County.
Once growth is initially restricted, the process is self-reinforcing. Housing is in short supply -- and housing prices go up. Once housing prices go up, fewer workers can afford the area, and most industry looks elsewhere for new locations.
If we start minimg Uranium again Farmington will experience economic but not much population growth. Modern mines do not need that many people to operate.
I see all three growing but Las Cruces and ABQ racing away from Santa Fe in terms of growth. A combination of geography, large blocs of Pueblo or Federal land and growth restrictions tied to water rights is already severely limiting new home construction in Santa Fe City and County.
Once growth is initially restricted, the process is self-reinforcing. Housing is in short supply -- and housing prices go up. Once housing prices go up, fewer workers can afford the area, and most industry looks elsewhere for new locations.
typical story isn't it. You are so right or I see what you are saying. Bring industry in by offering incentives, move more people in, housing is in demand and we know the rest. It has happened so many places. In my lifetime I have seen this happen over and over again. As a little girl, Los Angeles was the 4th largest city in the USA behind NYcity, Chic and Detroit. Phoenix wasn't even in the top 100 I would guess (I am not sure of that) Dallas and Houston were nothing, nor were any of the cities in the south.
If we start minimg Uranium again Farmington will experience economic but not much population growth. Modern mines do not need that many people to operate.
Farmington has been booming for quite a while now, I dont think most New Mexicans even realize the growth this city is seeing, when I lived there a few years back they were building on every spare piece of land they had available(almost)
If the cost of living keeps going up in Farmington it could hurt the town but who knows, there are so many jobs available there.
Good question. I checked my crystal ball (currently imitating a piece of Zuni pottery) and came up with:
Albuquerque will continue to grow because of a favorable business climate and an available work force. The state will improve the school system to provide more adaptable workers. The city will also start building more retirement communities for the folks that cannot survive Florida’s humidity. Growth is unlikely to be very rapid because the overall US economy will slow as a consequence of the current financial crisis.
The lower Rio Grande valley will gain immigrant population as will neighboring El Paso. There will be growth associated with the spaceport unless the finance dries up due to the aforementioned financial crisis. Possibly the industrialization of Mexico will provide more opportunity for jobs in Mexico and reduce the flow of immigrants.
I also expect that New Mexico will have a new mineral rush as all mineral commodities increase in price because of world wide demand and improved transportation making export less costly. I think this will involve the base minerals more than gold and silver.
Smaller cities and towns will stabilize or continue the slow decline in population by importing a few old people that will replace the young folks headed for the city to get good jobs. This will lead to a fair amount of growth in elderly medical and social services mostly paid for by pensions, social security and Medicare originating outside New Mexico. The really small communities will grow less inhabited and become semi-ghost towns like the places along I-40 and the BNSF.
I do not expect a border fence but I do expect more effective control of illegal immigration. I also expect that some of the currently illegal drugs like marijuana will be legalized and the big tobacco companies will take over the distribution and sales. This will put some of the smugglers out of business.
Culturally I expect New Mexico to remain a mixture of Anglo and Hispanic with Hispanic becoming more dominant as it will in the rest of the country. Let us facie the fact that demographics is destiny and the Hispanics are having more children than the Anglos and these children will eventually become the dominant culture. I doubt if they will stay completely Hispanic and expect they will eventually blend into the rest. I hope for a return of the melting pot instead of the stew pot type of cultural assimilation.
That is enough for now. My crystal coffee cup is about empty. I would appreciate any comments.
What I "would" like to see is an increase in those retiring and buying low cost land and building something...not like Santa Fe, butmore like what Quemado is seeing.
There is very low cost land around Fence Lake, Quemado and Techado that has great value and great views, lots of trees and water is available.
Remember, Las Vegas in 1911 had about 100 residents. I can't see why NM will not grow. There are rail lines runnning along I-40 and I-10 plus there is a large population that is available for labor.
Look at Couer d'Alene Idaho; 40 years ago it was nothing..now property is sky high and industry has moved in and wages are "too low" but there are lots of jobs. Medical has as high demand also.
NM has a high demand for medical, fire, law enforcement, but wages are not there....yet.
This is such a great state to not see it grow...
One problem does need to get worked on: the drugs and ETOH problems.
We really need more Law enforcement and education and good ole Uncle Sam needs to help this state and good ole Gov. R needs to get with it..
HW for now...happy trails.
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I see ME in less than 10 years
