Quote:
Originally Posted by hertfordshire
Best Picture
My personal favorite is Call Me By Your Name, but I don't think it has much chance of winning. I think this one will go to Three Billboards or Lady Bird. I read that Variety is predicting Get Out, which is a bit of a head-scratcher for me.
Best Actor
Again, Timothee Chalamet is my sentimental favorite, but it seems this one's going to Gary Oldman.
Best Actress
This seems to be Frances McDormand's year. And I think she's deserving. I'd give runner up to Sally Hawkins.
Actor - Supporting
I only saw three of the movies represented ... I actually preferred Woody's perfomance a bit more than Sam's, but I'd be happy with either.
Actress - Supporting
I ADORE Allison Janney, so I won't even consider anyone else ;-)
Directing
This is a tough one to call. del Toro and Gerwig seem to be the favorites, but I think Peele has a really strong chance. I didn't care for the movie, but I think the directing was spot on.
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Each year I write down what I refer to as the 'major nominations' when they are announced (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Adapted Screenplay)
In the old days of a maximum of 5 Best Picture nominees, there were 40 such nominations. Now the number fluctuates between 40 and 45.
I usually look at he list I've written out within a week or so of the nominations to determine how manie movies are included re those major nominations. In one recent year, it was only 12 or 13.
This year I waited until Wednesday, February 21st
.
This year, those 44 nominations include 18 movies, and by 2/21 I hadn't seen any of them.
Every year it has been in existence, I've purchased the Cinemark Oscar Pass, so I then determine how many of the major nominations weren't 'covered' by best picture nominees, and how I will try to see movies that represent those other nominations.
IIRC, in the past, the Oscar Pass has covered a 10 day or 2 week period. This year...only one week, although the price was only $35 (I think it was $40 last year
).
33 of the 44 'major nominations' = 'covered' by the 9 Best Picture nominees, and 9 movies are represented in the other 11 'major nominations'. Of the 18, 16 = viewable (at least in Texas) before the Ceremony on March 4th (all but Mudbound , and All The Money In The World), that include 41 of the 44 'major nominations'.
I was able to catch the last showing in the Houston metro of 'Molly's Game' a week ago Thursday night (2/22) at the NASA 8 Dollar theater.
On Friday night (2/23) I saw 'I, Tonya', and afterward rented (from a Redbox): The Florida Project, Logan, The Big Sick, and Roman J. Israel, Esq., and viewed all of those, returning them to the Redbox by Saturday night (2/24).
I purchased the Oscar Pass, and saw all of the first showings of the 9 Best Picture nominees from Monday 2/26 through Thursday 3/1...
Monday night -- The Shape of Water, then Get Out
Tuesday night -- The Post, then Lady Bird
Wednesday night -- Darkest Hour, then Dunkirk
Thursday night -- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, then Phantom Thread, then Call Me By Your Name
The last (16th) is The Disaster Artist, and it is only available for purchase right now (not rentable until after the Academy Awards) on iTunes...so I may wait until after the ceremony. So the 15 I've seen so far cover 40 of the 44 'major nominations'.
Best Picture -- I enjoyed all 9 of them, but 'thoroughly' enjoyed 7 of them (Get Out + 3 Billboards excepted). To me, the top tier belonged to two movies, The Shape of Water and Call Me By Your Name. The Shape of Water was just so original, and so well done. In a human sense (as much as any straight person can say) Call Me By Your Name struck all the right chords.. I'm about the same age as Armie Hammer's character, and I spent a good chunk of time in Italy in the 1980s with Italians similar to those depicted in the movie. I think the filmmakers did a great job capturing that slice of time in that location. I was also very partial to the music (Classical, as well as 80s (The Psychadelic Furs, etc.). I think The Shape of Water should win, but Call Me By My Name would be great as well. My 'second tier' includes Lady Bird, The Post, and Phantom Thread. Next (3rd tier) would be Dunkirk, and then (4th tier) Darkest Hour, with (as mentioned before) Get Out and 3 Billboards occupying the last tier.
Best Director -- Guillermo Del Toro should probably win for The Shape of Water, followed by a second tier of Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird, Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk, and Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread, and with Jordan Peele for Get Out occupying the third tier. Honestly though, I would be happy with any of those particular five winning.
Best Actor -- Gary Oldman should get it. He nailed Churchill to a degree that is reminiscent of how (looking back to the past) Daniel Day-Lewis seemed to nail Lincoln. If Oldman doesn't get it, then it should be Timothee Chalamet for his portrayal of Elio in Call Me By Your Name.
Best Actress -- I think, hands down, Sally Hawkins should win for The Shape of Water. Many seem to think that Frances McDormand should win, but I would put her (this time) at 5th out of 5....and I'm a huge Frances McDormand fan.
Best Supporting Actor -- I didn't see Christopher Plummer's performance in All The Money In The World but, given that caveat, I agree with many others that the category is a lock and that Sam Rockwell should win for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
Best Supporting Actress -- I didn't see Mary J. Blige's performance in Mudbound but, given that caveat, I agree with many others that the category is a lock this year and that Allison Janney should win for her portrayal of Tonya Harding's mother in I, Tonya. Janney owned that role.
Best Original Screenplay -- I think The Shape of Water should win. I'd put Lady Bird, Get Out, and The Big Sick in a second tier, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri in the third tier.
Best Adapted Screenplay -- I haven't seen The Disaster Artist, nor Mudbound. Of the other three....Call Me By Your name, Logan, and Molly's Game....I would be happy with any of the three winning.
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Yeah, I noticed. I don't remember this ever happening to this degree.
