Oscars 2018 - Predictions?

[AFtrEFkt]

[PacoMartin]

Eleven films have won best picture without an acting nomination
1. “Wings” (1927/28)
2. “All Quiet on the Western Front” (1929/30)
3. “Grand Hotel” (1931/32)
4. “An American in Paris” (1951)
5. “The Greatest Show on Earth” (1952)
6. “Around the World in 80 Days” (1956)
7. “Gigi” (1958)
8. “The Last Emperor” (1987)
9. “Braveheart” (1995)
10. “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003)
11. “Slumdog Millionaire” (2008)

Shape of Water had 3 acting nominations, all of which lost, two of them to actors in "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”.

Shakespeare had a knack for mixing the sublime and the petty in characters. One of his most famous lines "This above all, to thine own self be true", was delivered by a man who was one of the most narrow- minded, contemptible, loquacious character invented by Shakespeare who callously and cruelly manipulated even his own children. TBOEM had deeply flawed characters.

SOW had characters that were practically saints, and were part of some minority group (handicapped, black, gay, amphibious) persecuted by evil personified as a middle aged white man.

I feel like the vote went the safe way. I don't mean to disrespect, Guillermo del Toro, but I think Pan's Labyrinth was the better film.

[FluidFreedom]

Didn't watch, but was glad to hear two horror movies were nominated and won (Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay).

[PacoMartin]

I am old enough to think that a theatrical film is primarily about acting first, directing and writing second, and special effects and cinematography third.

In the past, especially the 1950s, spectacle could win a film the Best Picture award. That trend was followed by “The Last Emperor” (1987), “Braveheart” (1995), and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003).

But since 2003 the Academy has chosen to almost completely ignore the commercially successful film in favor of independent films or those with social consciousness. As we said earlier “Slumdog Millionaire” (2008) did not even have an acting nomination.

There has been a dearth of acting wins in the Best Picture in the last 6 years since "The Artist".

Academy awards
(2011) The Artist: Picture, Director, Actor in a Leading Role, Costume Design, and Original Score.
(2012) Argo: Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and Film Editing.
(2013) 12 Years a Slave: Picture,Supporting Actress (Lupita Nyong'o), Adapted Screenplay
(2014) Birdman : Picture, Best Director, Original Screenplay, and Cinematography.
(2015) Spotlight : Picture and Original Screenplay.
(2016) Moonlight : Picture, Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali) and Adapted Screenplay
(2017) The Shape of Water: Picture, Director, Original Score and Production Design
...
(1934) It Happened One Night: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Screenplay
One of the last romantic comedies created before the MPAA began enforcing the 1930 production code in 1934
Two years later a supporting category was created for the Oscars.


It seems like a sign that the Best Picture is being awarded primarily on thematic material. I think it is possible to make a film with nasty or at least conflicted characters, and where the evil doer is not punished.

In some ways it is a return to the Code.