Each year I write down what I refer to as the 'major nominations' when they are announced (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Adapted Screenplay)
In the old days of a maximum of 5 Best Picture nominees, there were 40 such nominations. Now the number fluctuates between 40 and 45.
I usually look at he list I've written out within a week or so of the nominations to determine how manie movies are included re those major nominations. In one recent year, it was only 12 or 13.
This year I waited until Wednesday, February 21st
.
This year, those 44 nominations include 18 movies, and by 2/21 I hadn't seen any of them.
Every year it has been in existence, I've purchased the Cinemark Oscar Pass, so I then determine how many of the major nominations weren't 'covered' by best picture nominees, and how I will try to see movies that represent those other nominations.
IIRC, in the past, the Oscar Pass has covered a 10 day or 2 week period. This year...only one week, although the price was only $35 (I think it was $40 last year
).
33 of the 44 'major nominations' = 'covered' by the 9 Best Picture nominees, and 9 movies are represented in the other 11 'major nominations'. Of the 18, 16 = viewable (at least in Texas) before the Ceremony on March 4th (all but Mudbound , and All The Money In The World), that include 41 of the 44 'major nominations'.
I was able to catch the last showing in the Houston metro of 'Molly's Game' a week ago Thursday night (2/22) at the NASA 8 Dollar theater.
On Friday night (2/23) I saw 'I, Tonya', and afterward rented (from a Redbox): The Florida Project, Logan, The Big Sick, and Roman J. Israel, Esq., and viewed all of those, returning them to the Redbox by Saturday night (2/24).
I purchased the Oscar Pass, and saw all of the first showings of the 9 Best Picture nominees from Monday 2/26 through Thursday 3/1...
Monday night -- The Shape of Water, then Get Out
Tuesday night -- The Post, then Lady Bird
Wednesday night -- Darkest Hour, then Dunkirk
Thursday night -- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, then Phantom Thread, then Call Me By Your Name
The last (16th) is The Disaster Artist, and it is only available for purchase right now (not rentable until after the Academy Awards) on iTunes...so I may wait until after the ceremony. So the 15 I've seen so far cover 40 of the 44 'major nominations'.
read interesting article on The Verge about the influence of Rotten Tomatoes' scoring in nudging Academy members into choosing films that w/o that rating might not have gotten enough first place votes to be considered in Best Picture category vs say Best Original Screenplan where art-film, independent films used to wind up before say 2005...now the article argued because the choices are fewer, it is more difficult for a good/great film to get into Screen Play category than Best Picture
Best Picture -- I enjoyed all 9 of them, but 'thoroughly' enjoyed 7 of them (Get Out + 3 Billboards excepted). To me, the top tier belonged to two movies, The Shape of Water and Call Me By Your Name. The Shape of Water was just so original, and so well done. In a human sense (as much as any straight person can say) Call Me By Your Name struck all the right chords.. I'm about the same age as Armie Hammer's character, and I spent a good chunk of time in Italy in the 1980s with Italians similar to those depicted in the movie. I think the filmmakers did a great job capturing that slice of time in that location. I was also very partial to the music (Classical, as well as 80s (The Psychadelic Furs, etc.). I think The Shape of Water should win, but Call Me By My Name would be great as well. My 'second tier' includes Lady Bird, The Post, and Phantom Thread. Next (3rd tier) would be Dunkirk, and then (4th tier) Darkest Hour, with (as mentioned before) Get Out and 3 Billboards occupying the last tier.
I have not seen The Florida Project or Call Me by My Name (hate Armie Hammar) but did see the rest...Thought this is strong field--Personally I would have included Captain Underpants--I thought that was one of the best movies I saw and so was The Big Sick--more deserving than Dunkirk which was a real disappointment...Get Out I consider more topical than intrinsically great---right topic at the right time...
Phantom Thread had performances but not a cohesive whole IMO
Ladybird and Shape of Water are top 2--then Three Billboards and Phantom Thread...
Best Director -- Guillermo Del Toro should probably win for The Shape of Water, followed by a second tier of Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird, Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk, and Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread, and with Jordan Peele for Get Out occupying the third tier. Honestly though, I would be happy with any of those particular five winning.
Del Toro or Gerwig -- Dunkirk just didn't cut it --Spielberg might be dark horse as political message
Best Actor -- Gary Oldman should get it. He nailed Churchill to a degree that is reminiscent of how (looking back to the past) Daniel Day-Lewis seemed to nail Lincoln. If Oldman doesn't get it, then it should be Timothee Chalamet for his portrayal of Elio in Call Me By Your Name.
Oldman, I think...Lewis was always compelling but movie was hot mess--Washington really pulled out all the stops but movie not that successful
Best Actress -- I think, hands down, Sally Hawkins should win for The Shape of Water. Many seem to think that Frances McDormand should win, but I would put her (this time) at 5th out of 5....and I'm a huge Frances McDormand fan.
Hawkins #1 and Ronan #2--she was believable as a teen...No so Robbie--too old, too big physically for Harding--and her teeth were especially off putting. Streep I thought was excellent but her reputation is her enemy...and McDormand was not best served by her script and I am big fan as well
Best Supporting Actor -- I didn't see Christopher Plummer's performance in All The Money In The World but, given that caveat, I agree with many others that the category is a lock and that Sam Rockwell should win for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
Didn't see Dafoe in Florida Project---Rockwell was excellent--as good as in "The Green Mile"
Think Richard Jenkins could be dark horse for "Shape of Water"
If Plummer (who was great) wins, was it for performance or for stepping into the breach??
Best Supporting Actress -- I didn't see Mary J. Blige's performance in Mudbound but, given that caveat, I agree with many others that the category is a lock this year and that Allison Janney should win for her portrayal of Tonya Harding's mother in I, Tonya. Janney owned that role.
Didn't see Blige but Janney's role was pretty much one note--not her fault and she was great in it but Laurie Metcalf has my vote for Ladybird. Mandeville's role was less than her talent...reminded me of Judith Anderson/Mrs. Danvers in "Rebecca"...
I wish Holly Hunter had been nominated for The Big Sick...
Best Original Screenplay -- I think The Shape of Water should win. I'd put Lady Bird, Get Out, and The Big Sick in a second tier, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri in the third tier.
If Lady Bird wins for this then Shape of Water has Best Picture IMO.
Best Adapted Screenplay -- I haven't seen The Disaster Artist, nor Mudbound. Of the other three....Call Me By Your name, Logan, and Molly's Game....I would be happy with any of the three winning.
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