Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Gave you a +1 for you interesting post. Do you agree with my point that Wall Street has permanently downsized operations due to automation and moving back-office operations to cheaper locales? Some have speculated that NY may grow stronger as a financial core due to London's decline via Brexit. Which will it be?
My prediction the growing digital economy will reduce the importance of large cities like NY, as more work gets distributed through the internet.
Yup, you're right on with your assessment. Many of those formerly well-paying jobs that were destroyed during the Great Recession are not coming back. Many of the office buildings that housed trading and sales operations have been gutted and now house empty rows of desks. Sure, there is some banking going on, but not anywhere near level there used to be. Today it's all algo-based HFT which is all automated. The largest HFT firms operate in places like Kansas City, Chicago and Boca. Back office operations have moved to Jersey City, Weehauken, Tampa, Salt Lake, etc. Anywhere but in the priciest of locales, NY.
I've seen it happen. After 9/11 a lot of IT operations were moved to NJ, and during the downturn a lot of back office positions moved to Tier 2 and 3 cities.
What you won't see leave are the core Wall St. jobs that require being there, Fashion, Theater and a few other industries that have very close ties to NYC. Silicon Alley is doing well, partially because of the easy access to capital (and advisors) in the city along with a techie urban hipster labor pool. In that aspect it's like Silicon Valley.
Those core Wall St. jobs have been pared down to much smaller teams. Much of the fashion world has been outsourced to cheap labor outlets in 3rd world nations, so the garmento district has also shrunken. Theater is more tourism related, I guess if you're an actor or build stage sets, that's good. Silicon Alley is hiring in very small numbers, access to capital is drying up and frankly, despite NYCs financial complex, capital never flowed here like it does in other startup meccas (Bay area, Boston, Boulder, Austin). There is a large techie labor pool, though, and that'll mean lower comp for techies in NY. Of course, 2017 is a new year and NYC is resilient if anything.
Yup, you're right on with your assessment. Many of those formerly well-paying jobs that were destroyed during the Great Recession are not coming back. Many of the office buildings that housed trading and sales operations have been gutted and now house empty rows of desks. Sure, there is some banking going on, but not anywhere near level there used to be. Today it's all algo-based HFT which is all automated. The largest HFT firms operate in places like Kansas City, Chicago and Boca. Back office operations have moved to Jersey City, Weehauken, Tampa, Salt Lake, etc. Anywhere but in the priciest of locales, NY.
I agree with the bolded point. Interestingly a lot of non-profits have moved downtown to the financial district and are getting dirt cheap prices on those rows of desks. Landlords offering custom build outs, whatever to get agencies in. I know a few north of Houston who couldn't resist selling their long owned condo space for prices they couldn't refuse, or just getting priced out and having to go. Water St, Washington St, lots of non-profits now. Just NYC commercial migration. Like you said, NYC is resilient.
Yup, you're right on with your assessment. Many of those formerly well-paying jobs that were destroyed during the Great Recession are not coming back. Many of the office buildings that housed trading and sales operations have been gutted and now house empty rows of desks. Sure, there is some banking going on, but not anywhere near level there used to be. Today it's all algo-based HFT which is all automated. The largest HFT firms operate in places like Kansas City, Chicago and Boca. Back office operations have moved to Jersey City, Weehauken, Tampa, Salt Lake, etc. Anywhere but in the priciest of locales, NY.
I agree. Interestingly a lot of non-profits have moved downtown and are getting dirt cheap prices on those rows of desks. Landlords offering custom build outs, whatever to get agencies in. I know a few north of Houston who couldn't resist selling their long owned condo space for prices they couldn't refuse, or just getting priced out and having to go. Water St, Washington St, lots of non-profits now and city govt jobs that used to be in midtown. Just NYC commercial migration. Like you said, NYC is resilient.
over priced by what measuring stick ? by the same token manhattan has been over priced for decades and just goes higher and higher .
when one set of buyers falter it seems other's fill the gap . that is why desirable areas are desirable and high priced .
home prices and cost of living does not happen in a vacuum . area's are high priced because the jobs tend to offer higher pay and the areas are desirable .
when they don't the area deflates . but that has never been the case in the long island /westchester /nyc area except for some short term bumps in the road .
we sold two investment apartments in manhattan at the peak of the 2008-2009 down turn . we got 10% less than our record peak and it took longer to close . but buyers were still out there .
for those with the funds long island can be a great place to retire , especially if this is where your kids and grand kids are .
It's considered overpriced by most standards, just run a Cost of Living calculator and total COL is %30+ on LI, Housing can be %50+ more on LI and taxes seem to run 3x as much as elsewhere. And yes Manhattan and now Brooklyn have COL's that prevent any quality as life as many have posted on these boards.
A percentage of jobs will pay a premium because of the location but when your paying $450K for a 70 year old Cape Cod on a small lot that would go for $150K anywhere else how much more buying power do you really have? And what of the people who aren't in these big paying career in NYC?
The market seems to stay inflated because demand continues to exceed supply but who is going to buy in the future as the boomers retire and the millennials want nothing to do with ticky tacky houses...
I like your last line, any place can be a great retirement if you have the funds to afford it.....
It's considered overpriced by most standards, just run a Cost of Living calculator and total COL is %30+ on LI, Housing can be %50+ more on LI and taxes seem to run 3x as much as elsewhere. And yes Manhattan and now Brooklyn have COL's that prevent any quality as life as many have posted on these boards.
A percentage of jobs will pay a premium because of the location but when your paying $450K for a 70 year old Cape Cod on a small lot that would go for $150K anywhere else how much more buying power do you really have? And what of the people who aren't in these big paying career in NYC?
The market seems to stay inflated because demand continues to exceed supply but who is going to buy in the future as the boomers retire and the millennials want nothing to do with ticky tacky houses...
I like your last line, any place can be a great retirement if you have the funds to afford it.....
Yeah, I caught the last line, too. Even with the 'funds' to 'afford' Long Island, the quality of life is poor. It's not just the COL or property taxes that run 5x the national average but it's the misery of driving on our heavily congested roads which are falling apart, the traffic and tolls you need to surmount to get into Manhattan, the suburban sprawl which is not getting better, but more dense and the knowledge that every politician in NYS knows the scam and is doing their best to insure you have as little money left over as possible.
About the only positive I can think of for retirement purposes is NYS' tax treatment for retirement income. Social Security retirement benefits are exempt from state income taxes and I believe other retirement income is deductible up to $20k. What does it matter when your property tax bill is greater than any mortgage payment I ever made?
pensions other than federal ,state and local in ny are what are exempt from local taxes up to 20k .
any other retirement income is subject to the normal deductions and exemptions . there is no special treatment of other retirement income other than ss is not taxed .
ny does have a nice estate tax exemption . we are in the millions so unlike new jersey which is an awful place tax wise to die ny is far better if you have some assets .
be aware though , ny has a nasty estate tax cliff . go over the exemption amount by just 10% and you just don't pay the difference , you lose the entire exclusion and the estate pays tax from dollar one. years ago we had to get disclaimer trusts in order to deal with this little unknown gotcha .
we had a 2nd home in the pocono's we were going to retire to .well when the time came we realized that everything we could want is right where we live in queens right now and making that move full time would be a mistake .
as we thought with our retirement hats on and not our skiing ,hunting and fishing hats we realized these areas just lacked much of what would be important to us .
no public transportation if i couldn't drive
long icy cold winters with nothing to do
limited medical facility's and specialists
that walk around the lake was growing stale and we wanted more things to do in retirement .
everything was a 15 -20 minute drive at least each way .
if i wanted to work a bit in retirement everything was low wage . my field paid less than 1/2 if i was lucky enough to even find a job
today i do some consulting work in long island and make in a day what i would have to work many days for in the pocono's .
the list went on and on and we sold the house and retired right here in bay terrace queens . it has everything we would want in place and all our kids and grand kids are local .
even housing was not going to be much less in pa. here in queens we have a 2 bedroom 2 bath apartment , none of the kids are with us .
well in pa we needed a house to house all of us since all the kids and grand kids stayed over . our cost of housing was actually higher in pa on that whole house .
Last edited by mathjak107; 01-02-2017 at 05:22 PM..
My neighbor paid over $750K eight years ago and sunk a couple hundred thousand into it. Her house has been on the market for 1 year. She is now down to $600K. She's in her mid 60's and will be taking a serious beating if/when it sells. (The taxes are ridiculous, too.)
Yes, it all depends on what is going on in the market when you buy or when you sell. And while you can control when you take those actions, you cannot control what the market is doing when you do.
I got lucky and brought a house on LI when the market was just rebounding (1995), and sold 11 years later for triple (yes, 3x). The price on that house has yet reach that value again so far, still being about 10% off. In those 11 years, I've paid only $25K in taxes instead of $110K.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107
what high cost of living areas do is force more money in to housing as a percentage of income and takes away from spending on other things .
that is not always a bad thing . someone who relocates after decades and has a long island home to sell can do very well . a 600k home appreciating 3% a year is far more than a 150k home in cheapsville appreciating the same 3%.
so when that long islander relocates they tend to go with higher social security checks from the higher wages and far more money from that forced savings in the house than had you lived in cheapsville your entire life . a couple today with a good wage history can see as much as almost 80k in social security by delaying ss , from the higher ny wages .
in a recent survey by aarp they found 400,000 long islanders who were boomers or millennial's said their plan was to eventually sell their nice expensive homes here and relocate to cheaper areas at retirement and live very nicely on the proceeds .
yeah , not everyone owns a home , or makes high wages , we all get that . but the potential is here for those who can utilize that high cost of housing and living here to their advantage . .
I don't think that is the case any longer. Higher paying jobs are now available in many more places. I know plenty of "locals" at my company who are in five to mid six figure jobs. And that is besides the people in IT. As local companies grow and companies migrate jobs from higher cost areas, plenty of 'locals" have a shot at very well paying jobs in an area with a much lower cost of living.
As your above post shows planning to retire to a semi-rural vacation area doesn't pan out as a year round living option. It seems you prefer a more urban environment with amenities and conveniences so I don't think little house on the prairie, mountain, lake etc. will every satisfy you long term. But many people consider relocating because they don't have the income that will allow them to stay on LI comfortably or the desire to continue maintaining the house. We plan on being reverse snow birds and moving up to the mountains near Lake George for half a year then back south for the milder winter.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
