[OmegaSupreme]

Originally Posted by equid0x

Here we go again.

A mortality rate amongst known and suspected cases does not equal the same mortality rate in the general population.

Do you have a link? I'd like to see what numbers they're running.

No, I don't agree with that mortality rate at all. I'm sure it's well under 1%.... I said I agreed with most of it. You're, right though, I should've deleted that part.

My estimate is 0.5%

I think cases in Nevada are so low that eradication is a possibility. That would mean more lockdown however, and I know you're against that.

[tijlover]

Anybody keeping track of the suicides during this period in Las Vegas, or are they being thrown into the Covid statistics.

In Knox County, In TN, there were 9 suicides within a 48 hour time span.

Watch and see, the deaths from suicide will surpass those of the Virus.

There's a relatively easy way of getting the economy moving again, mandate that everybody wears masks, everywhere. Masks are not foolproof, but the psychological effect is all we really need to allay the fears of the panic-stricken!

[OmegaSupreme]

Originally Posted by tijlover

Anybody keeping track of the suicides during this period in Las Vegas, or are they being thrown into the Covid statistics.

In Knox County, In TN, there were 9 suicides within a 48 hour time span.

Watch and see, the deaths from suicide will surpass those of the Virus.

There's a relatively easy way of getting the economy moving again, mandate that everybody wears masks, everywhere. Masks are not foolproof, but the psychological effect is all we really need to allay the fears of the panic-stricken!

Are there enough masks though or do you mean home made ones?

There are hybrid surgical masks that have a clear inexpensive looking face shield. I think that would work as a reminder not to touch or rub your eyes.

I personally believe the only way forward is with instant testing and contact tracing.

[Lwcasu]

Originally Posted by tijlover

Anybody keeping track of the suicides during this period in Las Vegas, or are they being thrown into the Covid statistics.

In Knox County, In TN, there were 9 suicides within a 48 hour time span.

Watch and see, the deaths from suicide will surpass those of the Virus.

There's a relatively easy way of getting the economy moving again, mandate that everybody wears masks, everywhere. Masks are not foolproof, but the psychological effect is all we really need to allay the fears of the panic-stricken!

Exactly. In Macau everyone wears a mask and there’s been 45 total cases. This is one of the most densely populated places on Earth. There’s not a stay at home order, and walking down the street there’s definitely a good amount of people walking around. If you go in a building you may have your temperature taken and there’s usually a bottle of hand sanitiser. You don’t have to shut down the economy, but you do need everyone to wear masks. It’s probably a good idea to limit mass gatherings like sports, until a vaccine is developed. I think you could probably reopen casinos but clubs or packed places should stay shut down.

[Merrily Gather]

Some people on here have already said they won't wear masks and think it's weird despite the CDC and government officials recommendation to wear them. I got my homemade masks in the event I walk into a COVID19 mist after someone coughs or sneezes. Something is better than nothing.

[FML157]

The epidemiologists I follow said a few weeks ago "be aware that when our mitigation efforts start to work and projections go down, people are gonna use that as proof we overreacted, not proof that mitigation efforts worked."

[roodd279]

AMEN to that, FML. Already happening. Not sure what people expected.

[WestieJeff]

Most people love anything that reinforces their inherent bias. And that applies to either side.

Originally Posted by FML157

The epidemiologists I follow said a few weeks ago "be aware that when our mitigation efforts start to work and projections go down, people are gonna use that as proof we overreacted, not proof that mitigation efforts worked."

[equid0x]

Originally Posted by FML157

The epidemiologists I follow said a few weeks ago "be aware that when our mitigation efforts start to work and projections go down, people are gonna use that as proof we overreacted, not proof that mitigation efforts worked."

The epidemiologists I follow said a few weeks ago "be aware that the IHME models are extremely pessimistic. When numbers begin to go down, people are gonna use that as proof that social distancing measures are working, when in fact it's just revisions of the model because the model was completely incorrect."

[roodd279]

The model was revised to show the effects of social distancing.



The early models were totally correct in the fact that it IS contagious - and it IS deadly. The amount of "spread" before the lockdown sure seemed to back that up - and the amount of "dead" among infected people is hovering around 1%.


This (bad) logic says: If a vaccine were invented today, even these reduced models would be wrong.


Uh, no. The models are made with the data available. Old models used the known rate of spread. New models use the new rate of spread. The rate of spread changed because...what? Ya though I was gonna say lockdown?


It changed because...go ahead, fill it in...good luck? Kind virus? Sunshine? End of the season?


No. Of course not. There is zero scientific data that supports that. Only one thing changed - and that was the amount of spread. Based on the results of places that didn't lock down - like Italy - it's apparent the early lockdown did, indeed, limit the spread.


So knowing something like 20 to 40% of exposed people would get it - and 1% of them would die - that's a million people, maybe. That was the model. And in the early days - a month ago - the incoming data matched the model pretty perfectly. Then we locked down. New Data. New Model.



I would love to see the argument, seriously, about why the original model was wrong. One guess: Maybe it showed 100% of people getting it - I've reduced my example to 20%. Another guess - maybe it showed 5% dead - while it seems to trend to 1% or less. Nevertheless - it's a million people. Dead without lockdown, based on the available data and evidence. If you've got something else that said that would NOT have happened - the CDC would love to see it.


If your argument is that the first model said 5 million, and now it's just a million - don't care. That's way too many.