[lvmensch]

Originally Posted by ND_Irish

It's all relative as I said. If you have links to illegal drug use by type of drug for each area, I am happy to review them. Regardless, if you can't tell by now, I generally share your view on this matter. I also believe that weather has a major influence on things which is why states like Nevada, Arizona, and California are not as bad off as New York and New Jersey. Here is a link to a University of Maryland study from almost a month ago which has been almost completely ignored by the media and our national, state, and local leaders probably because it does not fit their narrative.



https://today.umd.edu/articles/predi...a-cb5ab866f46a

Actually a pre publication release of a partial paper. If they complete it that could be interesting. The interesting current finding it that the CV propagates in a narrow temperature range. Southern CA is already well outside that range and we will be as well in a week or two. So the CV will go away in LA and LV. Would be nice but I will not hold my breath.

[roodd279]

Whelp, you'd be wrong.

They can indeed accurately predict the spread of virus far more accurately than predicting the weather. When you get swabbed at the dr. for a culture, and it grows in a week, how did they know how long to wait? Models. Just like this. Unlike the weather, virus experiments are repeatable, predictable, and transferable. I'm sorry you don't believe it - but before you argue with it, go do some reading. The "medical community" - if you're referring to virologists - epidemiologists - that type of thing - can predict with a great deal of certainty what's going to happen, if no action is taken. Lots and lots - and lots - of books on this subject. Read one. Or 20. It is NOTHING like predicting the weather.

There is no sign that it's seasonal - It's 96 flipping degrees in India - still Corona.

The predictions weren't inaccurate at all - some of them were spot on - the ones made BEFORE we locked down are obviously not applicable now. The ones made SINCE we locked down are pretty darn good. Different circumstances. Different models.
Believe it - don't believe it - that's the sorry state of science right now, flat earth and all. But math is math, data is data - and those models are NOTHING like the weather.

If I'm the weather man, and it's July in Florida, and I say, No Snow tomorrow - do you believe that? Why? Still just a guess hm? If it's February, and I say, it will be below freezing in Quebec tomorrow - do you believe that? Also a model. THAT is the kind of limb the virus models are on. A damn sure limb. Not the percent chance of rain at 2pm a week from now. It will not be seasonal. But it will be on the list indefinitely, you got that right.

[Katie the heartbreaker]

Originally Posted by clutchcargo777

I actually have read it and have been a business owner and have right leaning politics. Doesn't matter. A month or so without income should not destroy any one or any business. If it does, you were on borrowed time for sure. If it wasn't a virus, it could be any number of things that would bring you down. If 2008 didn't wake you up to restructuring things, I doubt this will either.

The owner of the company where I work for has decided to shut down the daycare because it is now losing more money by staying open than temporarily closing it. He told us that we will have our job back once everything reopens. He is a multi-millionaire who owns multiple businesses and can easily handle the losses, but I do not think he represents the majority of small business owners? I admittedly don't know much about small business, so I was just putting out what I was told at my own job.

[equid0x]

Originally Posted by roodd279

Whelp, you'd be wrong.

They can indeed accurately predict the spread of virus far more accurately than predicting the weather. When you get swabbed at the dr. for a culture, and it grows in a week, how did they know how long to wait? Models. Just like this. Unlike the weather, virus experiments are repeatable, predictable, and transferable. I'm sorry you don't believe it - but before you argue with it, go do some reading. The "medical community" - if you're referring to virologists - epidemiologists - that type of thing - can predict with a great deal of certainty what's going to happen, if no action is taken. Lots and lots - and lots - of books on this subject. Read one. Or 20. It is NOTHING like predicting the weather.

There is no sign that it's seasonal - It's 96 flipping degrees in India - still Corona.

The predictions weren't inaccurate at all - some of them were spot on - the ones made BEFORE we locked down are obviously not applicable now. The ones made SINCE we locked down are pretty darn good. Different circumstances. Different models.
Believe it - don't believe it - that's the sorry state of science right now, flat earth and all. But math is math, data is data - and those models are NOTHING like the weather.

If I'm the weather man, and it's July in Florida, and I say, No Snow tomorrow - do you believe that? Why? Still just a guess hm? If it's February, and I say, it will be below freezing in Quebec tomorrow - do you believe that? Also a model. THAT is the kind of limb the virus models are on. A damn sure limb. Not the percent chance of rain at 2pm a week from now. It will not be seasonal. But it will be on the list indefinitely, you got that right.

Right.... so the predictions were completely and ridiculously inaccurate, so we'll just move the goalposts so they become slightly more accurate.

Gotcha.

[08grad]

Originally Posted by longviewJoe

I hear ya but get a new career. You sound burnt out. Good luck to you.

Resigned from my position in March. No one picked it up during transfer season. They won't be able to fill it by next year. They won't find a long term sub, so classes will be covered by other teachers.

If someone picks it up they will be the 3rd teacher in 4 years. All of the other teachers in the department quit/transferred as well. This is bad admin and they're never removed as long as they're not suspending students.

[EA]

19 idiots and counting.

[lvmensch]

Originally Posted by equid0x

Right.... so the predictions were completely and ridiculously inaccurate, so we'll just move the goalposts so they become slightly more accurate.

Gotcha.

You have no idea if that is true. The projections were if we did nothing and let it run its course. We did not do that so we will never know what would have happened.

[OmegaSupreme]

I didn't write this but it's food for thought when comparing deaths to the flu. The part about vaccination isn't exactly correct since vaccinations are nowhere near 100% effective, but it's been argued they do help your immune system when you still get the flu:

"Despite social distancing this will kill more people than the flu in which we don't practice social distancing. Also most people getting the flu and dying from it are doing so because they didn't bother getting vaccinated. Which means many of those deaths were preventable. There is no vaccine for this. And the death rate so far is 3.6% in the US or 1 in 27"

[JonathanLB]

It wasn’t an easy vote for me at all. But I voted no. It reminds me of seatbelt laws - I think you’re an idiot if you don’t wear a seatbelt, a total moron, but that doesn’t mean I think we need a law for it. It’s called personal responsibility and the same applies here. Old people should stay home, they’re high risk. The facts speak for themselves otherwise for the rest of us. Mortality rate for those under 50 is 0.16%. The WHO has reported 95% of fatalities are people over 60 in Europe. There’s not much reason for this much panic among young people who mostly work these jobs and drive the economy. It shouldn’t be asking too much of old people to stay home if you value your health. Or don’t, but don’t be surprised if you get sick and die then. I think the damage caused here to the economy is way worse than this relatively pathetic virus. A virus that kills 0.67% of all infected - and gets misreported as 2-3% because it’s SO weak that half of people according to a report show no symptoms whatsoever - isn’t cause for end of the world panic to me. You’d think this was Ebola or SARS. Nobody is saying it’s not a big deal compared to the seasonal flu, but does it merit quite this level of insanity? Eh, I don’t think so.

[equid0x]

Originally Posted by lvmensch

Actually a pre publication release of a partial paper. If they complete it that could be interesting. The interesting current finding it that the CV propagates in a narrow temperature range. Southern CA is already well outside that range and we will be as well in a week or two. So the CV will go away in LA and LV. Would be nice but I will not hold my breath.

Wait, I thought this thing was going on for 18 months?