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Just some details on storm surge, if you’re already familiar with it in storms then can ignore this post, I know its a long:
As Dorian begins to move up parallel to the FL coast storm surge, especially during high tide cycles, will begin to come in well in advance of the passing of the center of the storm. This is due to counter clockwise spin of an Atlantic Hurricane and those winds literally push the water up higher onto shore into bays, down rivers and tributaries, etc. So yes they help push water away when blowing offshore. Surge is not a wave, not a mini-tsunami, it is the entire body of water rising, kind of like a 3rd tidal cycle really. With the current slow nature of Dorian, some coastal communities will experience several tide cycles of surge. Surge will likely be most noticeable when at/near high tide. It’s still there at low tide but tidal cycles add/subtract a few feet as you know. An example I like to use is lets say a made up tide cycle is 3ft difference between low & high tide (you see this normally at the beach or local marina, etc) and now lets say you have 3ft of surge, so at low tide the surge in this specific example makes it just look like normal high tide. But if same 3ft comes at high tide now you’re 3ft higher & potentiality in cars, buildings, cutting off roads etc depending on lay of the land. Also note for barrier islands or in bays, etc that as center of storm is about to pass that winds will be onshore, as storm passes winds shift from Coming out of the East to from the North, then to offshore after center passes, which can then push water towards back side of barrier islands, etc. if you live on water check map to see what direction wind blowing would push water into the section of waterfront you are on. You may be fine first half and serious flooding second half or what have you.
So why not a lot of images of surge in S FL near Dorian right now sitting so close to land??? Because the water is fairly deep right along the S FL coast which lessons surge. But as you head up the coast waters become shallower and continental shelf extends further out + shape of US coast line towards GA helps trap water. So you will start seeing visible surge by this afternoon/evening along Central FL coast and it will look higher / become worse as Dorian heads up the coast, especially towards GA and the SC coast.
Stay up to date with updated surge forecast. I even see Georgetown SC at 11a advisory now calling for over 6ft of surge nearby. East NC will likely increase from what is shown on this map too fyi. Check your location here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...ation#contents
The ENTIRE state of FL is in the cone.
How is that a "prediction"?
It's like being asked where the heart is. And a kid says: In your body. Um, yeah, it is.
But it's not in your foot, is it.
Statistically intensity is actually harder to predict than the track but they are getting better at knowing favorable environments for strengthening/weakening and signs its about to intensify or weaken.
When a storm is only forecasted to be a weak Category 2 hurricane and it quickly turns into a strong Category 5 hurricane you gotta question the accuracy of the models. Four days out and the model is that far off? Just image a model looking 7300 days out (or 20 year climate change models). That model,no matter how smart or confident these climate scientists sound, is going to be way off!
You could confidently give me directions to the corner store in town but no matter how smart or confident you sound, if the directions are wrong I'm going to get lost. Now if you can't get me the right directions to the store in town, am i going to listen to you when you try to give me directions for my cross-country trip? Prove to me you can get me to the local quickie-mart... until you can do that i'm not going to listen to you.
When a storm is only forecasted to be a weak Category 2 hurricane and it quickly turns into a strong Category 5 hurricane you gotta question the accuracy of the models. Four days out and the model is that far off? Just image a model looking 7300 days out (or 20 year climate change models). That model,no matter how smart or confident these climate scientists sound, is going to be way off!
You could confidently give me directions to the corner store in town but no matter how smart or confident you sound, if the directions are wrong I'm going to get lost. Now if you can't get me the right directions to the store in town, am i going to listen to you when you try to give me directions for my cross-country trip? Prove to me you can get me to the local quickie-mart... until you can do that i'm not going to listen to you.
Now wait..if you are talking intensity, the models have always had trouble with rapid intensification. However, they have been right in the decrease in strength. As for track? You are dead wrong..they did a nice job on this one. They have been forecasting the turn at least 4 days...and low and behold! Its turning and right where they said it would.
Many people tend to obsess over the center line in the forecasts, even though the forecasters say time and time again that the cone is the important thing to watch. I sometimes wonder if it would be better for the NHC to only do a center line for something like 48 hours out and for anything further, just the cone.
It will be a miracle if there are survivors on Grand Bahama.
I just can't imagine what it must be like to be on the second story and have water lapping at the windows.
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They have been forecasting the turn at least 4 days...and low and behold! Its turning and right where they said it would.
