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Grand Bahama about to get hit with a Cat 5. Past 2 hr loop. 8:15-10:15am September 1, 2019.
225 miles East of West Palm Beach. They'll be getting the outter bands later today
Min Pressure 927mb
It could bump up if the timing works out. Depends on how slow it gets and if the high can push it another 100 miles closer to the east coast. If it could ride up the east coast just 20 miles inland it would be like a buzz saw ripping everything apart for many miles. It will be close to the coast for sure. but if it stays 50+ miles offshore the core winds won't be that bad. Still high waves and some beach and sand damage.
Wind speed is now 175 mph. The Bahamas are going to be ripped apart.
Just goes to show we are seeing more and more of these super Cat 5's as the planet heats up. The one last year that hit the Panhandle would have been the strongest ever if it had 200 more miles of water ahead of it with gust to 230mph+. I called for that last late Sept as super heated gulf water temps due to insane above normal temps kept water temps way above normal.
Those gusts are at the top of the eyewall, though, right? What is representative of what will happen on the ground?
If those wind speeds are correct, there will be nothing left on the island. Nothing. No people, no buildings.
Pictures after the hurricane tell a better story of what actually is happening, how high the wind really is because of the damage it leaves. Wind damage and water damage look different too.
We are witnessing a Rare Rapid Intensification of a Cat 5. Pressure dropped even more.
11am Update:
Posting entire thing for future reference.
Quote:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019
...DORIAN BECOMES THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN MODERN RECORDS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
...CATASTROPHIC CONDITIONS OCCURING IN THE ABACOS ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...913 MB...26.96 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from
north of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.
A Storm Surge Watch has also been issued from north of Deerfield
Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the extremely distinct eye of Hurricane
Dorian was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 76.8 West.
Dorian is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower
westward motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by
a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of
extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to move over
Great Abaco and move near or over Grand Bahama Island later tonight
and Monday. The hurricane should move closer to the Florida east
coast late Monday through Tuesday night.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 180 mph (285 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dorian is a extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.
Dorian has grown larger in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). Ham radio
reports indicate that Hope Town in the Abacos just reported wind
gust to 100 mph.
The minimum central pressure measured by both NOAA and Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 913 mb (26.96 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions are occurring in the Abacos
Islands and will spread across Grand Bahama Island later today and
tonight.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in
Florida by late Monday or early Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Monday and Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Monday night.
STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Volusia/Brevard County Line to Jupiter Inlet FL...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...2 to 4 ft
The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:
Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula
through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: Large swells are already affecting east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
NHC has it a Cat 5 for the next 30 hours now and off the coast of Florida tomorrow.
Those gusts are at the top of the eyewall, though, right? What is representative of what will happen on the ground?
If those wind speeds are correct, there will be nothing left on the island. Nothing. No people, no buildings.
Pictures after the hurricane tell a better story of what actually is happening, how high the wind really is because of the damage it leaves. Wind damage and water damage look different too.
There are 200 year old houses in Hopetown that have survived everything that has hit so far. This will be a test they may have never faced before. I expect to see similar and worse damage there (Elbow Cay) than we saw with Floyd which ripped a new cut in the island between the Abaco Inn and Sea Spray. There are new houses that have been built on the beach that was completely washed through in Floyd. I really worry about the Haitian community in the shantytown, the Mud, in Marsh Harbour. I can't imagine we're not going to see loss of life there.
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