Atlantic - Dorian forms August 24, 2019 (global warming, palm, western, accurate)

[JRR]

Originally Posted by metalmancpa

These changes make may be good for the direct hit type of damage, but all those north of the eye wall along the coast will be hammered with the winds and storm surge and could be devastating up the entire coast of FL and beyond. THis could actually impact more people in a worse way.

Good news for some can be bad news for others. Friends/relatives in Vero Beach FL are breathing a bit easier. But friends in Savannah GA, Wilmington NC and out on Cape Hatteras now have their turn at being nervous.

[metalmancpa]

Originally Posted by JRR

Good news for some can be bad news for others. Friends/relatives in Vero Beach FL are breathing a bit easier. But friends in Savannah GA, Wilmington NC and out on Cape Hatteras now have their turn at being nervous.

In this case though, going from the original forecast of a direct hit and then the eye going inland before turning north to scraping the coast brings more destructive winds and storm surge couple with the rain to a much larger geographical area and many more people to be affected.

[pbmaise]

Originally Posted by Poseidon3290

Please tell me this wont hit Key Largo. I'm literally on the boat with no dock to go to!

If you remain on hook I suggest installing a kellet.

About midway along the chain attach a dyneema rope through multiple links of chain. Go redundant. Then run these lines tight to a 55 gallon plastic drum. Toss this in water. Then fill drum with water and then displace the water with sand. Play out remaining chain.

I have done this before a typhoon and my big trimaran pulled the barrel off the bottom in a big guest. When the barrel was high enough gravity took over and the boat surged forward.

In this manner 90% of the holding power was not my anchor.

Note: I was also running engine and had someone watching the GPS. I was engaging forward gear for a few seconds then neutral.

Run all halyards forward to help take strain off forestay and take blades of wind generator.

Tie everything down.

Make sure you are not anchoring where another vessel will drag into you.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by Poseidon3290

Please tell me this wont hit Key Largo. I'm literally on the boat with no dock to go to!

Not a chance.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Cambium

New Euro 12z model. Prayers have been answered! Crazy! What is this model seeing now that makes it do that? Total against consensus right now. Instead of the turn over the state, it will happen 200 miles East more over water.

This. The Euro model yesterday was the first to see no landfall. That's why it's still "King". Crazy. But now the Carolinas aren't liking it. Plus, that's still too close for comfort for Florida. Storm surge, rain will be the main story but a small shift west and winds will be too.


What a beast. Current Satellite and NHC track.





5am Update: Hurricane force only extend 30 miles from center. WOW THATS TIGHT for a Cat 4


BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...DORIAN CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 72.6W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 72.6 West. Dorian is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower
west-northwestward to westward motion should begin later today and
continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian
should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and
central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on
Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible today.
Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

[Cambium]

Quick discussion for reference


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at...start#contents

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

Dorian continues to look impressive in satellite imagery this
morning, with a fairly symmetric area of cold cloud tops surrounding
a 10-15 nautical mile wide eye. There have been no new aircraft data from
the storm since the last advisory. However, the satellite
appearance has changed little since the aircraft were last in the
storm, and the various subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates have changed little over the past several hours. Based on
this, the initial intensity remains 120 kt.

The initial motion is now 290/10. A low- to mid-level subtropical
ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer it west-
northwestward to westward for the next 48 h or so, with the forward
speed becoming very slow as the center passes near or over the
Abacos and Grand Bahama. The track guidance for this part of the
track is tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is near the
ECMWF, UKMET, and HCCA corrected consensus models. The track
forecast becomes much more problematic after 48 h. The global
models the NHC normally uses, along with the regional HWRF and HMON
models, have made another shift to the east to the point where none
of them forecast Dorian to make landfall in Florida. However, the
UKMET ensemble mean still brings the hurricane over the Florida
peninsula, as do several GFS and ECMWF ensemble members. The new
track forecast for 72-120 h will be moved eastward to stay east of
the coast of Florida, and it lies between the old forecast and the
various consensus models. Additional adjustments to the forecast
track may be necessary later today if current model trends continue.
It should be noted that the new forecast track does not preclude
Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast, as large portions of
the coast remain in the track cone of uncertainty. Also,
significant impacts could occur even if the center stays offshore.

Dorian should remain in a generally favorable environment for the
next 3-4 days, and the intensity guidance indicates it will remain
a powerful hurricane during this time. The new intensity forecast
calls for a little more strengthening today, then it shows a slow
weakening that follows the trend of the intensity guidance. During
this time, the biggest intensity changes may come from hard-to-
forecast eyewall replacement cycles. Late in the forecast period,
increased vertical shear and proximity to land is expected to
cause some weakening.

[Cambium]

Cat 4 Dorian. 445 Miles East of West Palm Beach Florida. 9:30am August 31, 2019
Beast.

[JRR]

The tight size reminds me of Charley in 2004. The eye came over us in Altamonte Springs and we had 100 mph gusts. Our friends in Mt Dora, about 35 miles away, just had a somewhat normal rainy, breezy, summer evening.

[Cambium]

Hurricane Hunters are flying into the storm and through the eye past couple hours. Watch how they intersect it. Pretty cool!



Copyright © 2019 Cambium



They found 156-165 mph surface winds That's Cat 5


Note where it is...on the East side of the eye. Also remember the "MAX" is only a tiny area compared to the cyclone

Yellow dots = Cat 1 winds
Orange = Cat 2
Red = Cat 3



Copyright © 2019 Cambium

[fluffydelusions]

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