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11am Update: Still a Cat 4 but only 6mph from a Cat 5!
Moving only 8mph.
Hurricane force winds have extended out to 30 miles now.
Quote:
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019
...DORIAN'S FURY AIMING AT THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 73.4W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 73.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a slower westward
motion should continue into early next week. On this track, the
core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the
southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the
northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and move near the Florida east coast
late Monday through Tuesday.
Data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
during the next few days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
The minimum central pressure reported from both reconnaissance
planes was 945 mb (27.91 inches).
Swing and a miss but the cone is still over some of Florida but west coast now as it continues to shift east.
So the Euro models were correct 2 days ago.
And Euro models have been more accurate in general this year.
Why the NHC still insists on factoring in the GFS remains a mystery.
What? It's not hitting FL now?
What a switch!!!!
Going north the Carolinas...I'm stunned after the reporting from advanced sources!
Boy , will they learn a lot from this one!
What? It's not hitting FL now?
What a switch!!!!
Going north the Carolinas...I'm stunned after the reporting from advanced sources!
Boy , will they learn a lot from this one!
The Weather Channel and the global warming people are going to be very unhappy if this storm doesnt make landfall and cause a lot of damage or flooding.
So the Euro models were correct 2 days ago.
And Euro models have been more accurate in general this year.
Why the NHC still insists on factoring in the GFS remains a mystery.
The Weather Channel guy the other day made a comment about the Euro models being correct 52% of the time. It was the only model if I recall showing the turn before Florida. The Weather Channel seemed to completely ignore any mention of this from then on. On another thread (I got to find it), someone posted two days ago a tweet showing the Euro model and said it was the most accurate model, and it showed it turning before hitting Florida.
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