Houston 2020: what will happen to us in 10 years? (Sugar Land, The Woodlands: apartments, insurance)

[behtypa]

I came across this article in The Independent: "Oil supplies are running out fast"

Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast - Science, News - The Independent
(moderator: please advise if is OK to keep the link)

Let's elaborate here together: What would Houston change into in 2020? Say, how economy, environment and other external factors would affect our daily life here in Houston in year 2020?

The 2020s is actually not too far ahead, our children would finish a middle or a high school around then. Hence, they can be predicted with a certain degree given the factors we can already expect.

What we can probably expect in Houston/Texas in 2020:
- oil industry will profit for another decade before we clearly pass the "peak oil" and head to an oil crisis. I do not believe the alternative energy will be a strong alternative by then. :-(
- less oil = less oil industry jobs = higher unemployment rate = another economy crisis
- higher oil prices = costly transportation = less outsourcing/overseas products = more local products/produce
- this will result to oil and energy prices rising above the average annual incline
- a share of renewable energy in TX will be less than 5-7%

- average temperatures will raise a bit
- there will be a little more hurricanes, more rains and more floods in our area
- more hurricanes = higher insurance

Because of the above factors, I think:
- people will commute and travel less, will spend much more on foods and energy. How much more?
I believe that the Houston gas prices in 2010 will be around 3.50-4.00. The oil shortages of 2020 may rise it up to 7-10 a gallon. I do not think this is impossible. :-(
Therefore, the $300 electricity bill in 2009 may become $1000 in 2020, an average $300 a week for groceries may become $500 and so on.
- Houston suburbs will be affected more than the loop area.
- Rural communities with less developed infrastructure (i.e. Pearland, Cypress, Humble) may suffer more, than better sustainable areas like Woodlands, Katy, Sugar Land, etc. Because not everything is available locally, so people would have to travel further for grocery shopping, dining, etc.

The above is just my personal subjective opinion. Hopefully, the future will be more shiny and less costly. :-)

If you will, please try to predict your year 2020:
- how much higher your taxes, insurance, etc. would be
- what would your energy bill and monthly gas would be
- how would your commute be changed because of higher gas prices
- how your lifestyle would change because of higher energy bill, pricier groceries, etc.

[jeffari-al-texani]

Dude...the Mayans have told us the world is going to end in 2012...so why worry about 2020???

[behtypa]

Originally Posted by jeffari-al-texani

Dude...the Mayans have told us the world is going to end in 2012...so why worry about 2020???

LOL. Mayans could not predict their own fate well enough. How can they advise someone else then?

[EasilyAmused]

They said peak oil was in the 1920's, then in the 1940's, then again in the 1960's then they predicted 2000................

Most of your list will increase with inflation. However I predict that my commute will still be less than one mile.

PS-People have to travel less from Pearland than they do to/in around the Woodlands. The Woodlands is sprawl on the fringe of the Houston sprawl. All those exurbs MPC are mini-sustainable areas for the basics.

[jfre81]

Who cares? Let's make a buck now. In the future we're going to die anyway, so let's die rich. Then when we're done, Houston will be under water anyway and we won't have to worry about it. I'll retire stylishly in a beachfront house in Kentucky.

Drill baby drill!

[behtypa]

Originally Posted by jfre81

Who cares? Let's make a buck now. In the future we're going to die anyway, so let's die rich. Then when we're done, Houston will be under water anyway and we won't have to worry about it. I'll retire stylishly in a beachfront house in Kentucky.

Drill baby drill!

Something tells me you do not have children. :-)

[HookTheBrotherUp]

But then I thought, why bother? There is enough pessimism in our country right now, no need to add to it.

NEXT--->

[Malvie]

Originally Posted by jfre81

Who cares? Let's make a buck now. In the future we're going to die anyway, so let's die rich. Then when we're done, Houston will be under water anyway and we won't have to worry about it. I'll retire stylishly in a beachfront house in Kentucky.

Drill baby drill!

You know, I am a (for Texas) Liberal. I've been an "environmentalist" for a long time (though I think the wacko-left is as bad as the wack-o right, and the PETA people are just nuts; I also know and like the guns I own and keep around the place).

But you know, at age 52, I've kind of had a "sea change".

Drill, baby, drill! By the time we run out, I'll be dead.

[texasdiver]

It's not that difficult to imagine what kind of lifestyle we'll face in 2020 if energy prices go through the roof. One only has to travel to a city like Buenos Aires or Santiago to see how people adapt. My wife's family is from Santiago Chile and we visit about once a year. Gas prices there are about double what they are here and family incomes are about half. Which makes gas prices about 4x higher for the average Chilean than the average Houstonian.

What do people do? They drive much smaller cars. Lots of euro and japanese models are sold down there that aren't even imported to the US. Some are actually very luxurious and nice...just small. Here in the US luxury means larger so you don't see tiny econo cars with beautiful leather...that sort of thing. But you do down there.

People also commute by a whole variety of makeshift means. Santiago has an extensive subway and bus network. But also a lot of ad-hoc transit options. For example at every subway stop there are private vans that run short routes into the local neighborhoods. And cabs are usually queued up near subway stops as well. The average commuter might ride the subway out to the suburbs to the nearest stop to his house and then hop on a van that runs him the last 2 miles to his door.

Basically when the demand is there, all sorts of transit solutions crop up. Imagine high speed heavy rail running out the main spoke routes in Houston: I-10, I-45, 290, 90, etc. Then each stop is serviced by buses and private vans that run with rapid frequency during the commuting hours out to various neighborhoods. An average commuter might ride rail from downtown out to say Katy on the I-10 corridor in 30 minutes then hop a van that whips him out to his subdivision in another 5-10 minutes. When thousands of people are doing it because gas is $15/gallon it starts to work.

People in cities, even sprawling cities like Houston will probably come through a really serious and permanent energy crisis much better than anyone living in rural areas or small towns where there simply isn't the population to generate the economies of scale.

Life will go on and people will adapt.

[Callo]

I predict Houston is continue to deteriorate unless they stop allowing apartments to be built. Those things are sucking the life out of the city.