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So the poll goes up 3 percent and his lead "evaporates"? LOL!! Sorry what is it? Obama and Romney 50/50?
No Romney is ahead by 3 points. Romney 47, Obama 44.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Theliberalvoice
Talk about drama. And dream on if you think Romney will win the woman vote.
No one's saying he will nationally (though Republicans did in 2010), but he will in quite a few states. Probably not in OH even if Romney wins OH. But it's about the margins. Romney is likely to win the men's vote by 10+ nationally and in the key states. Obama will need to win women by close to the same margin to win the election.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Theliberalvoice
Republican hysteria makes me so happy.
What about Democratic hysteria? Lying about Romney outsourcing jobs? Focusing on someone's private tax returns rather than jobs? Asserting that Romney is responsible for a woman getting cancer and dying? ANYTHING to distract from the economy...
I honestly don't think Romney will win in Ohio. Are there certain reasons you think that he will?
I ask due to the fact, and which was talked about last night at the DNC that OH has a lot of manufacturing workers, a whole lot of whom work in the auto industry and I just don't think that they'll vote against Obama due to him supporting the auto bailout. I have a lot of family in Ohio who work in auto or auto parts manufacturing.
I can truly understand the focus on the state though and it makes me regret finally registering here in GA. I loved being "counted" in OH since we are a swing state in elections. My gut feeling is independents there will go for Obama due to the manufacturing sector growing there, especially as it relates to auto parts and manufacturing in local plants.
But I understand the allure and dreaming of an Ohio victory for either candidate since historically the candidate who wins Ohio wins the presidency.
Demographics. Ohio is over 80% white and Obama is weak among working class whites. This is why he is reaching out to his nemesis tonight. Too bad NFL kickoff is on tonite many of the people Clinton is supposed to target will be unavailable.
Even the ultra liberal Huffpo electoral map shows movement towards Romney in swing stses. Look at the recent changes in the lower right hand corner: Obama vs. Romney Electoral Map
And Romney didn't even start spending money yet.
Romney is going to have to win Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Are you crbcrb posting under a different name? Your assertion is laughable.
The last time a Republican won MI in a presidential election was 1988. The last time a Republican won WI was 1984.
Bush Sr. was able to win without WI. Bush Jr. was able to win twice without MI or WI. No to mention that, thanks to changes following the 1990, 2000, and 2010 censuses, (current) red states and reddish-purple states have more electoral votes than they did in 88, 2000, or 2004.
Do the electoral map yourself. OH, VA, NC, FL (all of which were more Republican than the nation in 2008) plus either IA or CO or NH or NV or WI or MI is all Romney needs. If he managed to win WI or MI (or even 2-4 states in the IA/CO/NH/NV group depending on which ones), he could even probably lose VA or even OH (though losing OH would be harder to recover from) and still win the election.
Romney is going to have to win Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin. To sweep them is a tall, tall order.
On the other hand I was looking at past elections on the website. I didn't know Mondale got whooped that bad, lol.
Wrong, which is pretty much de jure for you. He does not have to sweep all of those states. He definitely needs Florida and North Carolina. I wouldn't want to be Romney and lose Ohio but he could still get to the White House without. If he wins Florida, NC, Virginia and Ohio he'd be at 266, with Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Colorado and Nevada still unaccounted for (I'm not convinced yet Michigan is a tossup)
Also keep an eye out for Oregon and Connecticut. The GOP senator in Connecticut is actually ahead in the polls and she's more conservative than Romney. RCP quietly moved Connecticut from solid to mere likely Obama ditto for Oregon.
I wouldn't be surprised if these two states fall into tossup category before November.
Are you crbcrb posting under a different name? Your assertion is laughable.
The last time a Republican won MI in a presidential election was 1988. The last time a Republican won WI was 1984.
Bush Sr. was able to win without WI. Bush Jr. was able to win twice without MI or WI. No to mention that, thanks to changes following the 1990, 2000, and 2010 censuses, (current) red states and reddish-purple states have more electoral votes than they did in 88, 2000, or 2004.
Do the electoral map yourself. OH, VA, NC, FL (all of which were more Republican than the nation in 2008) plus either IA or CO or NH or NV or WI or MI is all Romney needs. If he managed to win WI or MI (or even 2-4 states in the IA/CO/NH/NV group depending on which ones), he could even probably lose VA or even OH (though losing OH would be harder to recover from) and still win the election.
Exactly and the trending of Wisconsin towards Romeny makes Virginia less crucial but I think he'll pull it out in Virginia.
Obama is getting weak across the board the dam will break during the debates.
Are you crbcrb posting under a different name? Your assertion is laughable.
The last time a Republican won MI in a presidential election was 1988. The last time a Republican won WI was 1984.
Bush Sr. was able to win without WI. Bush Jr. was able to win twice without MI or WI. No to mention that, thanks to changes following the 1990, 2000, and 2010 censuses, (current) red states and reddish-purple states have more electoral votes than they did in 88, 2000, or 2004.
Do the electoral map yourself. OH, VA, NC, FL (all of which were more Republican than the nation in 2008) plus either IA or CO or NH or NV or WI or MI is all Romney needs. If he managed to win WI or MI (or even 2-4 states in the IA/CO/NH/NV group depending on which ones), he could even probably lose VA or even OH (though losing OH would be harder to recover from) and still win the election.
Quote:
Originally Posted by EdwardA
Wrong, which is pretty much de jure for you. He does not have to sweep all of those states. He definitely needs Florida and North Carolina. I wouldn't want to be Romney and lose Ohio but he could still get to the White House without. If he wins Florida, NC, Virginia and Ohio he'd be at 266, with Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Colorado and Nevada still unaccounted for (I'm not convinced yet Michigan is a tossup)
Also keep an eye out for Oregon and Connecticut. The GOP senator in Connecticut is actually ahead in the polls and she's more conservative than Romney. RCP quietly moved Connecticut from solid to mere likely Obama ditto for Oregon.
I wouldn't be surprised if these two states fall into tossup category before November.
Sigh. Well guys, I am speculating from that map. I was doing a quick glance and eyeballing the big states. I think Obama is definitely going win Colorado and Nevada. As for the other combination, yes, of course they are possible. I apologize wholeheartedly for not present multiple scenarios of a possible Mitt Romney win. You have shamed me in the elections sub-forum and now I will commit Seppuku.
Sigh. Well guys, I am speculating from that map. I was doing a quick glance and eyeballing the big states. I think Obama is definitely going win Colorado and Nevada. As for the other combination, yes, of course they are possible. I apologize wholeheartedly for not present multiple scenarios of a possible Mitt Romney win. You have shamed me in the elections sub-forum and now I will commit Seppuku.
There have been several polls that have shown Romney ahead in Colorado, race is tightening in Nevada too. Obama is weak across the board I don't even think a stellar convention will change that especially with the jobs report coming out the next day.
Sorry some of us have been following the election a little more closely than others and can get carried away. My opening comment was inappropriate.
I honestly don't think Romney will win in Ohio. Are there certain reasons you think that he will?
I ask due to the fact, and which was talked about last night at the DNC that OH has a lot of manufacturing workers, a whole lot of whom work in the auto industry and I just don't think that they'll vote against Obama due to him supporting the auto bailout. I have a lot of family in Ohio who work in auto or auto parts manufacturing.
I can truly understand the focus on the state though and it makes me regret finally registering here in GA. I loved being "counted" in OH since we are a swing state in elections. My gut feeling is independents there will go for Obama due to the manufacturing sector growing there, especially as it relates to auto parts and manufacturing in local plants.
But I understand the allure and dreaming of an Ohio victory for either candidate since historically the candidate who wins Ohio wins the presidency.
Ohio is a conservative state by most standards. The auto industry there has rapidly diminished over the last 20 years or so, thereby making the "auto vote" less important. I lived in Cincinnati for several years and conservative politics outside of Cinci and Cleveland were pretty much the standard. I'm of the opposite opinion of you.......2008 was a wave election that cannot be relied on for political analysis in 2012. Most politicial scientists have all but abandoned trying to co-opt 2008 voting habits for this election cycle. BO will lose Ohio in my opinion.
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