Romney edges ahead in new Ohio poll, led by support among women (voters, Democrats)
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Mitt Romney has taken a lead over rival Rick Santorum in the latest poll of likely Republican primary voters in Ohio, a ten point reversal in just a week as women shifted sharply to the former Massachusetts governor.
Conducted by Quinnipiac University, the poll released Monday found Romney leads the former Pennsylvania senator 34 percent to 31 percent among likely Republican voters, compared to a poll released a week ago showing Santorum with 36 percent to Romney's 29 percent.
Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said Romney is clearly the momentum candidate "with the wind at his back," though the three-point margin makes it too close to call just one day before Ohio voters head to the polls.
"Just as he did in Florida and Michigan, Romney has erased a sizable deficit a week before the primary to grab the momentum in the final 24 hours," Brown said.
Romney will win the Republican voters in Ohio. It will come down to....will there be enough Democrats voting for mischief to overturn Romney's narrow win?
Romney will win the Republican voters in Ohio. It will come down to....will there be enough Democrats voting for mischief to overturn Romney's narrow win?
You guys are overestimating the Dem influence in my opinion.
Romney will win the Republican voters in Ohio. It will come down to....will there be enough Democrats voting for mischief to overturn Romney's narrow win?
I don't think Dems will have an influence, Santorum has a strong rust belt message. I think Romney may get the come from behind win, but if he doesn't it isn't because of Dems.
You guys are overestimating the Dem influence in my opinion.
If it is similar to Michigan...
Only 59% will self-identify as Republican...an all time low. Romney won that 48% to 37%. 10% identified as Democrats....31% identified as Independent or chose not to self-identify. In a close election that is huge. Santorum more than tripled Romney with Democrats.
Romney would have won Michigan by 11 points not 3, had it just been Republican OR won by 6 points had it just been Republicans, Independents and those who chose not to self-identify.
I don't think Dems will have an influence, Santorum has a strong rust belt message. I think Romney may get the come from behind win, but if he doesn't it isn't because of Dems.
If Santorum wins by 1% and 10% of voters self-identify as Democrats...with 60% voting for Santorum and 15% for Romney....how would the Democrats not have had an influence? The point is, if it is a very close election in Ohio like many are suggesting...Democrats coming in overwhelmingly for Santorum would tip it his way.
Edit: A lot of the people who choose not to self-identify are Democrats I would guess.
One of them does (Suffolk University). CNN has them tied, Quinnipiac has Romney ahead a few points, and one other one has Romney ahead by one point. Momentum is definitely on Romney's side, but there's only a few hours left until polls open. I would say there is no clear favorite, though intrade has Romney with an 83.5% chance of victory. I don't want to be too optimistic though. They give Santorum a 17.5% chance of victory. I guess that means there is a 101% chance either Romney or Santorum will win.
Those odds sound more realistic than intrade's. Plus, I would guess it's made by professional political scientists and pollsters rather than anyone who feels like gambling on the election
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