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Elections are won at the micro level, and Obama is most certainly not tied with Romney.
If Obama keeps Romney pinned against the eastern seaboard or the South trying to defend or win Virginia or NC, Romney's toast.
That is what I am saying. Obama has the biggest ground game (he has offices in Wyoming and Idaho for Chistsakes) and the bigger war chest. He can pin Romney in the East, Campaign in the West and at the same time have his army of minions canvassing the streets. Romney is toast without someone boosting his southern and conservative credentials. Who will be Romney's Cheney???
Obama will probably ot win any state he didn't win in 2008. They make brave talk about Arizona,but even many Dems call it a long shot. As for NC,the Democrat party scandals,from Edwards to the NC party chair giving people AIDS,can't help them. Besides,BHO won the state by a few thousand,no landslide. Given the vote fraud in Lake Co,IN,it now appears he didn't really win Indiana in a legit fashion. Montana's freak gov even says he won't win that state.
As for who Romney should pick for VP,I would pick Paul Ryan. You say Romney can't win Wisconsin? Well Bush almost did twice. Trust me,as a former Badger state resident,they get behind their own. If he is on the ticket,Romney will have a very good chance to win that state.
I would say, you might be right. Virginia and North Carolina will be very important in this election. Also, McDonnel, being a former military person has the foreign policy experience to balance the ticket. I have thought it might be McDonnell all along.
Thanks, I totally forgot about his military experience
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Originally Posted by boycewv
Great analysis! I am a from the other side, but if I were Romney I would go with a center right candidate from the south with strong evangelical support. Someone like bush, but more small town middle class. The reason I say this is because Romney isn't going to bring out the christian vote and he is seen as the rich stiff republican. They need to offset that with an intelligent southerner who can bring out the charm, something romney lacks.
Exactly, I dunno about the center right thing though. Romney is somewhere between Center Right and Center left himself (depending on what day you catch him). Romney needs someone with everything you said but that person needs to Conservative through and through. I am not saying the person has to be a Tea party looney, but the person has to be in touch with traditional conservative values.
Obama will probably ot win any state he didn't win in 2008. They make brave talk about Arizona,but even many Dems call it a long shot. As for NC,the Democrat party scandals,from Edwards to the NC party chair giving people AIDS,can't help them. Besides,BHO won the state by a few thousand,no landslide. Given the vote fraud in Lake Co,IN,it now appears he didn't really win Indiana in a legit fashion. Montana's freak gov even says he won't win that state.
As for who Romney should pick for VP,I would pick Paul Ryan. You say Romney can't win Wisconsin? Well Bush almost did twice. Trust me,as a former Badger state resident,they get behind their own. If he is on the ticket,Romney will have a very good chance to win that state.
Arizona wasn't really a long shot. He didn't spend much time there last time because it was McCains homestate. It is most definitely in play now. When you have the last two polls showing Obama leading by two and Romney Leading by two that means the state is in a dead heat.
As for NC it doesn't matter what percentage he won last time, the polls still show him strong there. Infact the polls look more favorable for him now than last time. Lasttime they showed he was in striking distance (kinda like Arizona now) that is why he campaigned there, this time it is showing that he is slightly ahead. Any increase in his national percentage and wins NC comfortably and Arizona by a hair.
The State that it is very likely that he will lose is Indiana
Elections are won at the micro level, and Obama is most certainly not tied with Romney.
If Obama keeps Romney pinned against the eastern seaboard or the South trying to defend or win Virginia or NC, Romney's toast.
The way the electoral maps are looking, Romney could literally have a 6 point lead in the polls and it doesn't matter. At this point, Obama has OH and PA. He's up slightly in Florida.
Romney is likely going to have to spend some money in AZ. Thanks to the immigration laws, AZ is now in play. Republicans didn't want to believe me (and a few others on here) but it is true.
Romney lacks the support of unmarried women and Hispanics, which are two of the fastest growing groups in the country.
Demographics don't really favor Romney. The election really is Obama's to lose.
you may not understand the electoral college. Clinton and Gore maybe the same to someone in Louisiana but in Tennessee Gore is a home town boy.
Candidates needing a state to win the EC have chosen running mates from that state for 200 year now, don't tell me you have never heard about that.
Ok, maybe Clinton chose ore just to win TN. Just that one state. Fine. I'll give you that. Something tells me he could have won without TN.
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Romney and Obama are most certainly not tied. Obama is leading in every single state down the eastern seaboard from Maine to Florida (That is including South Carolina and Georgia. He is leading in every state on the West coast, and in every toss up state except Arizona ( a State that was not even a toss up last time) and Iowa.
Some polls in places like Kansas, Montana and Indiana also show Obama leading in some of them.
Usually reliably red states such as Texas have Obama at 44% with Romney at 50% that is too close for comfort.
A tie is if both candidates are at 270, but right now Obama is leading in more states and Romney only has a few states that are safely in his column. The national polls mean nothing, it is the individual state polls you need to look at.
The individual state polls follow the national polls. When Romney is up nationally, he is up in the swing states. You seriously need to link to these polls since some of your claims are beyond absurd. If Obama were leading in Kansas and SC, you would see national polls reflect that. If you have a virtual tie nationally, you won't see Obama winning solid red states.
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Romney would have to have a route to get to Washington first before he can offer someone a trip to there. Romney is NOT on the path to victory so he cannot pick a running mate and plan for the future. he HAS to pick a running mate that will help put him on that road and Portman is not him.
And where did I suggest a celebrity candidate? My Suggestion is Bob McDonnell.
You and many others may want Portman. Heck half the Dems wanted Hillary last time, but candidates pick VPS that are good for them not you.
Portman will help him more than McDonnell. You may disagree, that's fine. I'm just saying - I'm thinking electorally too. And I really think Portman is better than someone who can be tied to one of those abortion bills.
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On the contrary. If Romney doesn't win the South he has no viable path to the presidency. NONE!!! He has to win Florida, Virginia and North Carolina or else it is a no go. If Obama wins those it doesn't matter if he loses Ohio. In Fact Ohio, like Missouri is losing its prominence as a Presidential Kingmaker.
You seem to have an odd perception of how far in the lead Obama is... But regardless. Romney does has the uphill battle of winning states back into the red column. My point is he can't look at FL, NC, VA as being places where he needs to campaign to Southern voters, he needs to campaign to independents in those states. Those independents are more like independents in the NE and Mid-Atlantic and Mid-West. You implied he needed to campaign there because he was weak with Southern voters in the primaries, but in fact all the Southern states he lost are safely in his column this November.
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Now I am not saying that Romney should only campaign in the South, in Fact I am saying the opposite. If he picks McDonnell Virginia would be a much easier win and he can spend the time campaigning else where. So I am saying he should pick a Southerner so he doesn't spend all the time campaigning in the South.
What I'm saying though, is that independent voters in NC, FL, and VA are going to find Portman more appealing than McDonnell. You may disagree, that's fine.
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What I did say is that Obama is gonna spend money in the South to make sure Romney is Pinned there, so that he doesn't have a lot of extra time campaigning in the Southwestern States.
As for Independents Obama most certainly will win a higher percentage of those.
Well if that's the case, then this election is already over. There are already more registered Democrats than Republicans.
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Like the saying goes, a servant can't serve two masters. More people pay attention to the nation campaign over the primaries. Romney can' run as right as he did in the primaries and keep the Independents, nor can he run to the center and expect a strong showing from the base. Romney has gone too far right anyway to move to the center and frankly his stances on some issues are repulsive to moderates.
Anyway, I think McDonnell is the man. He can help campaign in the South and Romney can focus on Ohio and Florida (The other two must wins) and look to Colorado and AZ for safety.
I really like McDonnell. I do disagree with you on the reasons for choosing him. But I do like him. I just think the abortion bill that he supported initially is too toxic for a national campaign.
What do you guys think of Bobby Jindal for Romney's VP? Possible?
Personally I don't think he is a great choice.
1. He was touted as an answer to Obama's Youthfulness and popularity and he choked on the national stage. He seems like a likeable character in a small setting but very peculiar looking on the national stage. he is too green
2. He is from Louisiana, although Romney lost the state miserably in the primary, it is almost certain that it will end up in his column in November. Obama lost the State by 18% the last time. Only 7 other states were worse for Obama.
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Originally Posted by asubram3
Do you mean someone like Huckabee?
That is another interesting choice. people like the down home affable nature of Huckabee. He brings in interesting credentials. On the downside Romney- Huckabee looks like an odd couple.
Ok, maybe Clinton chose ore just to win TN. Just that one state. Fine. I'll give you that. Something tells me he could have won without TN.
He might have, hey I am just analysing trends, I could be totally wrong, I am just being Miss Cleo but I predicted Obama's VP choice exactly last time, and I had Palin as one of my top choices if McCain got desperate. I am not trying to be condescending but Political analysis is my Hobby. I find it interesting.
Like I said I may be totally wrong, I cannot tell Romney who to choose but If I could you know what I would tell him. BTW this is for current trends, my candidate would change if situations changed.
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The individual state polls follow the national polls. When Romney is up nationally, he is up in the swing states.
Some do, some don't depending on the states.
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You seriously need to link to these polls since some of your claims are beyond absurd. If Obama were leading in Kansas and SC, you would see national polls reflect that.
Go to RealClearPolitics.com, 270towin, Fivethirtyeight.com see for yourself. The Kansas poll was from 270towin
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If you have a virtual tie nationally, you won't see Obama winning solid red states.[
That is not how it works. First there is no tie nationally. Obama is leading by 4% points a value NOT withing the margin of error.
secondly there is nothing like a solid state. Indiana and Montana went for Bush by what 20%, the very next cycle Obama won Indiana and Montana was within a 1% swing.
Finally, we are in May, we are still 6 months out, the VP's have not been chosen, the conventions have not been had, so polling now is sketchy at best. Especially national polls.
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Portman will help him more than McDonnell. You may disagree, that's fine. I'm just saying - I'm thinking electorally too. And I really think Portman is better than someone who can be tied to one of those abortion bills.
Yes Portman would help. As VP, and for Ohio and in the Midwest, but he won't help more overall than McDonnell. Besides, Romney can win Ohio without Portman. He seems to be able to hold his own in the Midwest
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You seem to have an odd perception of how far in the lead Obama is... But regardless.
facts are facts. They may not be to your liking but they are what they are.
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Romney does has the uphill battle of winning states back into the red column. My point is he can't look at FL, NC, VA as being places where he needs to campaign to Southern voters, he needs to campaign to independents in those states.
BS. Romney needs to appeal to the repubs in those states, He cannot out Obama Obama, Obama is too good at being Obama for a Wishy washy Romney to best him at his own game.
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Those independents are more like independents in the NE and Mid-Atlantic and Mid-West.
More BS, the Southern Independents are more Socially conservative than their counterparts in the NE and MW. Different mindsets.
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You implied he needed to campaign there because he was weak with Southern voters in the primaries, but in fact all the Southern states he lost are safely in his column this November.
Hate to say it so often, but again you are wrong. Romney is in Serious trouble in Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia. Currently Virginia is listed as a likely Dem state and the other two are listed as a Toss up. Not even a likely Rep, let alone a safe Rep.
Romney is going to have a helluva time at it if he doesn't do something t fix that.
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What I'm saying though, is that independent voters in NC, FL, and VA are going to find Portman more appealing than McDonnell. You may disagree, that's fine.
Portman is not on top of the ticket, it doesn't matter how appealing he is, he is not going to change people's opinion of Romney. I am not disagreeing that Portman is more appealing. You are painting me out to be anti Portman, I already said that Portman would make a good VP, but I am not talking about post election, I am talking about the road to the Whitehouse and Mcdonnell route is easier than Portmans.
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Well if that's the case, then this election is already over. There are already more registered Democrats than Republicans.
No its not (although people like Karl Rove are saying it is). It is early yet. Romney can sure his Southern credentials with McDonnell, he can develop and economic plan and focus on the economy and try and flip a couple of SW states. NM is gone, he can forget about that, but Colorado is doable, and maybe Nevada. The Election is far from over If Romney secures VA, GA and SC, then wins FL and OH he would only need one SW state to win. He is also doing very well in IA.
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I really like McDonnell. I do disagree with you on the reasons for choosing him. But I do like him. I just think the abortion bill that he supported initially is too toxic for a national campaign.
Well it is fine to disagree with my reasons, but don't speak ill of the methodology behind it. I may be wrong, but the polls say otherwise
That is what I am saying. Obama has the biggest ground game (he has offices in Wyoming and Idaho for Chistsakes) and the bigger war chest. He can pin Romney in the East, Campaign in the West and at the same time have his army of minions canvassing the streets. Romney is toast without someone boosting his southern and conservative credentials. Who will be Romney's Cheney???
Don't underestimate Mitt Romney's ground game or his 'war chest'. His campaign will more than likely end up with more money than Obama's. Money will not be an issue.
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