Quote:
Originally Posted by Bideshi
The party "establishments" are exactly what we need to get rid of. His organization is much stronger than you realize/admit to, and we can always send in more money as deemed appropriate. People believe in Ron Paul. The other candidates are not very believable.
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I'm not talking about party establishments.
I hope his organization is stronger than I think, because i would like to see Paul run against Obama. It would be the best race held in many years if it was to happen.
A candidate does not need his party to win the nomination in the early stages, but any Republican candidate who goes it on his own without RNC support has to have a highly skilled core of professionals who are with him all the way, and who work from within and without the candidate's campaign. Professional, by it's definition, means payment for services received. I haven't seen any mention of those folks in the Paul campaign, but that's not to say he doesn't have them... he may or may not. Usually, those with the best reputation and connections announce who they are working for.
Volunteers are always critical, but at some point, a candidate has to have folks with high fund-raising skills, or have them himself, or both. This is a very large and diverse country, and a winner has to be able to reach out to as many potential voters as he can.
In the earliest stages, it is relatively easy, but as a primary campaign goes along, it becomes harder and harder. There are always some critical states where a lot of money has to be spent to spread the word, especially if the state isn't favorable to the candidate.
Super Tuesday breaks the backs of most of the campaigns. Coming out of Super Tuesday a winner creates a situation where one candidate has an overwhelming lead over all the others typically, but if a 2nd or 3rd place candidate has heavy support, one can go on and eventually take the lead away.
That possibility heavily depends on the Super Tuesday turnout. A light turnout can really help a dark horse, but I firmly believe that the one next year will be the heaviest in years for the Republicans... there is a big field that is dividing the voters now.
You and I and all the other folks who come onto this forum and talk politics are not at all representative of the majority of voters. Most folks just don't care all that much, and most don't know all that much.
A lot of voters are intentionally staying out of politics right now, because really a lot of folks are sick and tired of hearing about it so much, and are tired of being bombarded with so many conflicting points of view. They will turn out and vote in Super Tuesday, but they won't make up their minds until a relatively short time beforehand.
The professionals who know how to snag their attention will get 'em- it happens every time. It always takes months of prep work to be able to move around quickly, place radio, newspaper and TV ads, get important local offices up and running, etc.
If Paul has his guys, I'm glad. In the past, this has been his weak spot. I am sure not going to say the RNC won't fall in and support him if he comes through the earlies- Iowa, N. Hampshire, S. Carolina and Florida as #1 or #2. The RNC dumped Romney and all the others in 2008 for McCain, and blew it badly. These guys are no dummies, and won't do that again. But that doesn't mean that they'll automatically turn their support to Paul, either.
It will all become a lot clearer in 30 days. Until then, all of us here are trying to peer into a very smoky mirror.
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