[Cambium]

18zGFS model which just came out... showing Low moving east off NorthCarolina Coast and moving North up the coast putting Snow to all East Coast on the 13th which means a fast run..Maybe cold air will be in place.

[wavehunter007]

Really think it's going for the Great Lakes. The low will likely pass through western PA into Canada. Western PA, western NY, eastern Ohio, and upper western New England (VT, Maine) could see blizzard conditions.

Most of the East Coast from Connecticut/NYC southward will see rain. I would not be shocked if the temps hit 55 F for a short time as warm air is swept in off the Atlantic. Will turn cold again though next week, however. Looks like a big pattern change by December 25th or so.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Really think it's going for the Great Lakes. The low will likely pass through western PA into Canada. Western PA, western NY, eastern Ohio, and upper western New England (VT, Maine) could see blizzard conditions.

Most of the East Coast from Connecticut/NYC southward will see rain. I would not be shocked if the temps hit 55 F for a short time as warm air is swept in off the Atlantic. Will turn cold again though next week, however. Looks like a big pattern change by December 25th or so.

Probably will go to GL but we wont know till all models agree or we're at least 3 days out.

Big pattern change from the cold we have now or the warm up we're going to get for 2 days?

I see highs wont get past 25 very soon.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Probably will go to GL but we wont know till all models agree or we're at least 3 days out.

Big pattern change from the cold we have now or the warm up we're going to get for 2 days?

I see highs wont get past 25 very soon.

Yes it will hit 50 F by this weekend and into early next week, as the rainstorm pass to our NW. Then it will turn colder again next week.

After that the current thinking is that a pattern change in late December will put the trough right back in the western states (colder than normal for them) and a ridge in the far eastern USA (warmer than normal for us). So I think Jan/Feb will be pretty tame in the Tri-State/Middle Atlantic region. Of course we could still get snow (even heavy snow) in Jan/Feb….but the pattern looks like it will really make it tough for any snow-cover to last long south of Boston on the East Coast. There will be a lot of rain in Jan/Feb if the pattern evolves…not good in keeping snow on the ground.

Unfortunately, I think the chances of a white Christmas on the East Coast below Massachusetts is going to be a long shot this year again.

[andthentherewere3]

We had a few inches of snow on the ground last Christmas which was nice, but I'm not up for a blizzard.

[DavieJ89]

From what it seems. Winters have gotten snowier on average since 2002, it seems less and less common now for certain parts of the state to see snow accumulations in feet compared to inches when a storm does arrive

The last big snowstorm I remember in Connecticut before moving out of the state was the Blizzard of February 2006. I had just returned from seeing relatives in Orlando a few days before. And about 27 inches fell in Naugatuck (measured myself in my front yard) and a lot of the storms I remember had tracks a bit further to the south and coastal Connecticut bore the brunt of the snow where as usually its Litchfield and Hartford Counties who see the worst, saw little snow

I had read a previous poster's article about the 5 inches of snow that "paralyzed SW Connecticut" And I think its at a point now with technology if 5 inches were to hit Bridgeport (or any "big" city in CT) that it would not be a big deal. Depends on the location of the city on how hilly or flat the city may be

I remember Naugatuck and Waterbury would close school for just two inches of snow. And Meriden wouldn't close until there was at least a foot of snow on the ground, because its flatter and in the CT River valley

I have only been in Las Vegas for 6 months now and have been told by some longtime residents that in December 2008, there was 8 inches of snow. Now THAT DID paralyze a metro area of 2 million people

Connecticut will see snow this winter that's guaranteed. And I do miss it some days. Its nice to actually be IN the snow rather than only being able to look at it on the mountains that surround Las Vegas

[Cambium]

Waay to busy to post updates here...So much going on today but FYI...People need to keep a closer eye on this thing... Models coming more into agreement that its a coastal storm not an apps runner..

This could spell disaster for monday morning!!!

I'll post something quick for now from a meterologist.

Considering that a week ago the models really did not show a Big Daddy and today, we are trying hone in on the track and snowfall, it is amazing how things have come about.

The GFS 12z run today has gone to the idea of a storm developing along the coast and heading north into the Northeast. Given the blocking, any storm that does develop has to go north then northwest under the block and not the traditional northeast route out to sea.

I think most of the models have come around to the idea I have been pointing out all week which is the storm developing and exploding along the coast. The Euro remains the "odd man out", but we shall see what happens with the 12z run that is coming in now.

So what are the implications of what we are seeing with the models and the storm jumping to the coast and exploding?
While I am not ready to commit to a snow map until Thursday, I want to offer some possibilities.

1. A storm that is bombing out along the coast Monday morning will pull very cold air into it very quickly, changing rain over to snow and causing flash freezes all the way into Philly and New York City first, and Hartford and Albany later in the morning. Rush hour in the big cities could be a monumental disaster Monday morning.

2. From eastern Kentucky through West Virginia, western and Central Pennsylvania into western and central New York, any rain will change over to a wind-whipped snowstorm with falling temperatures later Sunday into Sunday night. Lake squalls and bitterly cold weather follow the storm in the same areas. Lake-effect totals will once again be in feet.

3. The snowfall in the Ohio Valley will generally be under 6 inches because the storm will jump to the coast. However, the extreme cold coming in and high winds will whip the snow into a frenzy.

For many people, this will probably be the worst storm of the season in regards to the extreme cold, high winds and snow.

I just the Euro model and it continues to track the low across the eastern Great Lakes. Implications are the blizzard will go from Iowa, Wisconsin into northern Michigan, which seems too far north

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Waay to busy to post updates here...So much going on today but FYI...People need to keep a closer eye on this thing... Models coming more into agreement that its a coastal storm not an apps runner..

This could spell disaster for monday morning!!!

I'll post something quick for now from a meterologist.

Considering that a week ago the models really did not show a Big Daddy and today, we are trying hone in on the track and snowfall, it is amazing how things have come about.

The GFS 12z run today has gone to the idea of a storm developing along the coast and heading north into the Northeast. Given the blocking, any storm that does develop has to go north then northwest under the block and not the traditional northeast route out to sea.

I think most of the models have come around to the idea I have been pointing out all week which is the storm developing and exploding along the coast. The Euro remains the "odd man out", but we shall see what happens with the 12z run that is coming in now.

So what are the implications of what we are seeing with the models and the storm jumping to the coast and exploding?
While I am not ready to commit to a snow map until Thursday, I want to offer some possibilities.

1. A storm that is bombing out along the coast Monday morning will pull very cold air into it very quickly, changing rain over to snow and causing flash freezes all the way into Philly and New York City first, and Hartford and Albany later in the morning. Rush hour in the big cities could be a monumental disaster Monday morning.

2. From eastern Kentucky through West Virginia, western and Central Pennsylvania into western and central New York, any rain will change over to a wind-whipped snowstorm with falling temperatures later Sunday into Sunday night. Lake squalls and bitterly cold weather follow the storm in the same areas. Lake-effect totals will once again be in feet.

3. The snowfall in the Ohio Valley will generally be under 6 inches because the storm will jump to the coast. However, the extreme cold coming in and high winds will whip the snow into a frenzy.

For many people, this will probably be the worst storm of the season in regards to the extreme cold, high winds and snow.

I just the Euro model and it continues to track the low across the eastern Great Lakes. Implications are the blizzard will go from Iowa, Wisconsin into northern Michigan, which seems too far north

Just to be fair…because I know you’re really into snow…the above comment is hyped. My guess is it’s from AccuWeather, and the blog of Joe Bastardi or Henry Margustity – . Their version of a weather forecast (when it involves the East Coast) is to super hype any weather for the media as much as possible.

The weekend storm will not by a coastal storm. There is a small chance that a secondary low will form...but this will be too late to do much (not that it is likley anywhay). The main storm will move from Iowa…to northwest Pa…then up through western NY. All of the I-95 states will see rain (850 mb temps WAY TO WARM)…and the rain/snow line will be around I-81 (look on a map). In fact, places like NYC, New Haven, Philly, DC, Atlantic City, will see temps near 50 – 55 F as the storm pulls through late on Sunday and Monday.

Beware, even AccuWeather can see that with the exception of the cold coming next week to the eastern half of the USA (which will moderate like the cold today in the coming days)…there is truly little weather to market in the next 10 to 15 days.

[Yankeerose00]

Wavehunter or anyone else that can help....

Is there someplace online that shows past daily temperatures? I mentioned to someone that it seems like the past couple of years, January was warmer than December. I can swear it was last year. They said they didn't think so.
Maybe I was just more accustomed to the cold by January, but I could swear last December was colder than January was.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Yankeerose00

Is there someplace online that shows past daily temperatures?
..... I could swear last December was colder than January was.

Average Temp in December 2009 was 40 based on my electric bill.
Average temp in January 2010 was 25.

Which is interesting because we had 4 snowstorms in December.

Try here. Might take a little bit to download but very detailed and great info.. Scroll down a little to the link that says " Weather History for This Location " Scroll all the way down and you'll see the local weather stations that shows real time weather info.

Redding, Connecticut (06875) Conditions & Forecast : Weather Underground