[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Actually, I'm not so sure about that. Last year was a warm April, including a couple of 90+ deg days near the end of the month in most of the Northeast, yet it was one of the coldest summers in decades. A similar thing happened in 2002. On the other hand, 1991 had a warm early April (when Central Park broke the record for the "earliest in the year 90+" last week the previous record was a day later in '91) and was a hot summer with a persistent Bermuda High pattern.

An interesting note before "global warming" is completely blamed for the record early 90+ degree temperatures. For many of the above stations, the daily record that it broke occurred in 1929 and was also very close to 90 (for example, the record Central Park broke was was an 89-degree one from way back in that year and I believe Hartford was over 90 on that day in '29 although it wouldn't have been recorded at Bradley.......Providence actually recorded a late March 90+ degree day in 1945 (and Newark was 89 that same day as well).

I always find Bridgeport and Kennedy's readings to be a bit "artificial" (i.e. not reflective of much of the area beyond the weather station) because the weather station is right dead on the open shoreline (i.e. it was "only" 81 in Bridgeport and still a record as well).

From what I understand...the forecast for a “hot summer” on the East Coast is really more about the overall flow pattern that is expected to develop (and persist) for the summer season...and less about early heat. However, in many of the hottest summers...the Bermuda High showed strength early in the warm season (April/early May). Based on what they see now...the Bermuda High will be much stronger this year than the last several years.

Although it might seem of little importance how a 90 F temp is generated, there are subtle differences in the flow: In cooler summers...most of the infrequent hot weather in the far Eastern USA is generated by a more westerly flow from the southern Plains. In the hot/humid summers... the flow is more southerly (and much more humid). Yes, we did have some high heat last April (though not as hot and widespread as last week)...but the flow was out of the west. While most folks were remarking about the heat last week on the East coast...the meterological community was a little taken back by a 1020 Mb high off South Carolina the first week of April. This may be an early sign the subtropical high is building quickly. When the Bermuda High is strong, it often builds in early. So the flow is hotter, more humid, and much more constant. This is the real basis for a hot East Coast summer...not so much record highs. It looks like this:



In terms of record heat...keep in mind once you move out of the western USA the all time records for heat in much of the eastern USA (south of the Great Lakes/New England) are not separated by much (maybe 4 to 8 F). What is of more significance is the persistent nature of the heat (like in the Gulf/south Atlantic)...compared to the up and downs of the heat/southerly flow (East Coast, lower Midwest, upper south...etc). Take for example Louisiana (where Ms. Carly is from) and Florida (were I have lived)...and compare the all time record highs to Connecticut and New Jersey:

Hottest all time temps

Louisiana – 114 F (8/10/1936)
Florida – 109 F (6/29/1931
Connecticut – 106 F (7/15/1999)
New Jersey – 110 F (7/10/1936)

As far as the phrase “record temps” I would not put much stock in them. Records are made to be broken...and always will. While 93 F in Hartford or 91 F in Baltimore might have been a record so early in April...I assure you it has happened many, many times before. There was just know one around in 1756 or 1492 (500,000 years ago)...etc to record it.

None of this has anything to do with global warming or global cooling...it’s just the natural extremes of heat in lowland temperate climates.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

As far as the phrase “record temps” I would not put much stock in them. Records are made to be broken...and always will. While 93 F in Hartford or 91 F in Baltimore might have been a record so early in April...I assure you it has happened many, many times before. There was just know one around in 1756 or 1492 (500,000 years ago)...etc to record it.

None of this has anything to do with global warming or global cooling...it’s just the natural extremes of heat in lowland temperate climates.

True, though one argument some in the "warming" crowd give is that especially at the older stations like Central Park, very few of the daily "cold" records are less than 30 years old (in fact something like almost 1/2 of them are before 1900, the station opened in 1869), whereas many of the "warm" records are. Personally I think the real reason for that is increased urbanization which keeps the nighttime lows higher due to the "urban heat island" effect (in fact, using Central Park again, the average daily highs have actually been stable if not gone very very slightly down in recent decades but the average daily lows have been noticeably higher at least since 1970).

And of course as you duly note, who knows what anomolies happened 500 or 1000 years ago, etc.

[trishguard]

What a gorgeous Spring day it has been this Sunday. You didn't even need a jacket outside. I'm afraid of how hot it will be in the Summer if Spring is any indication.

[andthentherewere3]

There is a freeze warning for the entire state of Ct. tonight. We had to cover our tomatoes and peppers, and bring our potted annuals and herbs into the garage for the night. This is why I'm always cautious each year about planting tender annuals and veggies too early.

[JViello]

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

There is a freeze warning for the entire state of Ct. tonight. We had to cover our tomatoes and peppers, and bring our potted annuals and herbs into the garage for the night. This is why I'm always cautious each year about planting tender annuals and veggies too early.

All the while I have AC units in my window from last week. LOL

Thankfully, I have been too busy to plant all the veggies still in a pot. So bringing them in was easy.

Gotta love the drama in CT Weather.

[wavehunter007]

I thought weather-watchers would find this interesting: Looks like AccuWeather’s prediction of a hot East Coast summer is coming true. From Virginia to the Tri-State area …”every single NWS reporting station” is reporting June mean temps from around + 2.5 F to as much as +4.0 F above normal…here is a quick view….

NWS -Richmond, VA…………June + 7.2 F
NWS –Sailsbury, MD……….June + 4.7 F
NWS –Bailtmore, MD………June + 6.2 F
NWS-Phildelphia, PA…….June + 5.4 F
NWS –Atlantic City, NJ……June +5.2 F.
NWS, Newark, NJ………….June + 3.1 F
NWS, Central Park,NY……June +2.3 F
NWS – Bridgeport, CT……….June + 2.8 F
NWS – LaGuardia………June +3.3 F
NWS- JFK………………..June + 4.3 F
NWS – Trenton, NJ……June +3.5 F
MY OWN STATION…..June +3.1 (east of New Haven)

However, right around northern CT/southern Massachusetts…the above normal summer warmth starts to fall. NWS Bradley/NWS Worcester, MA are only running about 1.0 to 1.7 above normal…and as you get deeper into New England…many NWS stations start to show June mean temps “below normal”. In fact, many stations in Vermont and Maine are running close to 1 -2 F below normal!

NWS –Bradley (extreme northern CT)…June + 1.1 F
NWS- Worchester, MA……June +1.7 F
NWS – Concord, NH…..June + 0.3 F
NWS –Montpelier, VT….June - 0.4 F
NWS – Bangor, ME…..June -0.5 F
NWS – Burlington, VT…..June – 0.8 F
NWS – Houlton, ME….June -1.0 F

In other words…the “hot summer” (meaning places that have been running +2.5 to +4.5 above normal)…haven been from Virginia to southern Connecticut…however right around the Mass line the above normal warmth starts to fall off …and then as you get deeper into New England…June is running “cooler than normal' in several spots. Places in VT and Maine have had a cool summer so far. Accu-weather mentioned New England would see normal summer temps…but the East Coast would see above normal summer temps. I hate them…but they were dead on with this forecast geography and temp wise. From the Tri-State area (NYC/NJ/ CT) south summer has been above normal…from New England north (Mass northward) summer has been much closer to normal and in many places in New England it's been a cool summer.

I hate Accuweather but I have to give them credit where credit is due.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I thought weather-watchers would find this interesting: Looks like AccuWeather’s prediction of a hot East Coast summer is coming true. From Virginia to the Tri-State area …”every single NWS reporting station” is reporting June mean temps from around + 2.5 F to as much as +4.0 F above normal…here is a quick view….

NWS -Richmond, VA…………June + 7.2 F
NWS –Sailsbury, MD……….June + 4.7 F
NWS –Bailtmore, MD………June + 6.2 F
NWS-Phildelphia, PA…….June + 5.4 F
NWS –Atlantic City, NJ……June +5.2 F.
NWS, Newark, NJ………….June + 3.1 F
NWS, Central Park,NY……June +2.3 F
NWS – Bridgeport, CT……….June + 2.8 F
NWS – LaGuardia………June +3.3 F
NWS- JFK………………..June + 4.3 F
NWS – Trenton, NJ……June +3.5 F
MY OWN STATION…..June +3.1 (east of New Haven)

However, right around northern CT/southern Massachusetts…the above normal summer warmth starts to fall. NWS Bradley/NWS Worcester, MA are only running about 1.0 to 1.7 above normal…and as you get deeper into New England…many NWS stations start to show June mean temps “below normal”. In fact, many stations in Vermont and Maine are running close to 1 -2 F below normal!

NWS –Bradley (extreme northern CT)…June + 1.1 F
NWS- Worchester, MA……June +1.7 F
NWS – Concord, NH…..June + 0.3 F
NWS –Montpelier, VT….June - 0.4 F
NWS – Bangor, ME…..June -0.5 F
NWS – Burlington, VT…..June – 0.8 F
NWS – Houlton, ME….June -1.0 F

In other words…the “hot summer” (meaning places that have been running +2.5 to +4.5 above normal)…haven been from Virginia to southern Connecticut…however right around the Mass line the above normal warmth starts to fall off …and then as you get deeper into New England…June is running “cooler than normal' in several spots. Places in VT and Maine have had a cool summer so far. Accu-weather mentioned New England would see normal summer temps…but the East Coast would see above normal summer temps. I hate them…but they were dead on with this forecast geography and temp wise. From the Tri-State area (NYC/NJ/ CT) south summer has been above normal…from New England north (Mass northward) summer has been much closer to normal and in many places in New England it's been a cool summer.

I hate Accuweather but I have to give them credit where credit is due.

Yesterday's "near tornado" in Bridgeport perhaps somewhat reflects this sharp distinction in cool vs. warm air between the 2 regions.

[bobtn]

NWS confirmed it was not a "near" tornado, but an actual tornado.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by bobtn

NWS confirmed it was not a "near" tornado, but an actual tornado.

That's what I thought, but every news article was calling it "unofficial" even today. They finally confimed what I suspected....

[htfdcolt]

What has really been disturbing about the long stretch of warm weather we've had in the Hartford area (back to March 1, it seems like) is how warm and sticky it has been been overnight. Temps not falling too far after sunset. The average low is still supposed to be 59 F. Such cool comfortable temps appear to be nowhere in sight...!