[Cambium]

Today Marks 30th Anniversary of Snowiest April Day on Record

Record lows of 19, 18, and 23 degrees were established from April 6 through April 8, 1982.

Paul's Local Weather Journal


Snowfall accumulations from 10 inches to over a foot occurred over much of Long Island, but the accompanying very cold temperatures and high winds caused extensive blowing and drifting of snow which was unprecedented for early April.

17.3 inches of snow in Albany, NY.

More than a foot of snow (13") fell at Newark, New Jersey, 10 inches (9.8") blanketed New York City, and over two feet of snow was measured in upstate New York. The primary storm resurfaced off the New Jersey coast, producing gale force winds of up to 60 miles an hour. It was the heaviest April snow in New York City since April 3 and 4 of 1915 when 10 inches fell.

The heavy snow forced the cancellation of the Yankees’ 1982 home opener against the Rangers at Yankee Stadium

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Looks like they think a lesser than normal hurricane season:

Hurricane season might not be too bad

The idea that a strong El Niño often leads to a suppressed hurricane season does have a great deal of truth to it if you look at the long term numbers. El Nino years often see far fewer, weaker, and shorter duration tropical cyclones than non-El Nino years. The large, intense, Cape Verde type tropical cyclones with long tracks from the west coast of Africa to the East Coast are not very common in El Nino years. However, the Tri-State area has been hit in El Nino years I think…Hurricane Belle in 1976.

Still, 1992 was an El Nino year…but managed to produce one storm that was able to intensify to reach sustained winds of 175 – MPH, a 922 mb pressure (27.10 inches)…and cause $30,000,000 in damages.

Remember Hurricane Andrew?

[Cambium]

Comfortable and dry weather continues next 4 days. Rain event Wednesday finally.

[wavehunter007]

NWS seems to keep backing off ever so slightly with the chance of showers next week. We have been in this drier and warmer pattern for 10 days now. Yet, each time it looks like the rains will come, they fail to happen or the amount of rain that does fall is slight. So far just 0.55 inches or rainfall has fallen this April at Central Park and 0.27 at Bridgeport (this after coming off record dry weather in March at both stations!).

Right now, it looks like the trough will move eastward by Monday, but it may have trouble getting much moisture all the way to the East Coast. I hope this does not occur, because, after the Mon – Wed time frame, another long dry period looks to be on tap. NWS has now dropped the chance of rain to just 30% on Monday/Tue…and taken rain out of the forecast for Wed. So the drought this spring across the Tri-State may be with us for some time:



NWS New York, NY
Point Forecast: New Haven CT
41.31°N 72.92°W


Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 33.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 58..

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60..

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 40.

Monday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny and breezy, with a high near 60. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 58. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 58.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.

[Cambium]

Wow.

HPC qpf amount next 5 days. Less than 1/10th of an inch for us and less than 1/2" for NorthEast except up in Maine which some of that will be snow.

This is nuts. Who thinks we're going to go into "Severe" drought status by Spring?




CPC Outlook sees relief: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...l_drought.html

"In the Northeast, relatively short-term drought and no discernible tilt of the odds toward wet or dry conditions for the next few months implies that some improvement will be the most likely outcome."

[wavehunter007]

I do think the drought will actually taper (somewhat) as we head into late May and June. Still, we must remember that by mid May and after - hotter temps combined with even semi-dry conditions could still be trouble for farming and gardeners.

In terms of the normal pattern - often, May is a dry month just to our south (Virginia south to Florida); As April advances, the northward building Azores – Bermuda High shunts the core of the westerly flow (fronts/storms/jets…etc) northward, thus the subtropical south Atlantic states often have a dry May in the absence of general storms . Often, this pattern creeps northward to the NY/CT/NJ ares as well. Yet, by late May/early June, the flow of out the Bermuda High brings unstable, humid tropical air masses, and convection becomes more common, hence rainfall increases greatly just to our south, and often advects into our region (or convection occurs right in our region). Of course as we get deeper into the hot season, the sultry airmass/tropical depressions/rements of old tropical systems…etc also help to increase rain chances.

So I think while dry spring/drought is often possible anywhere on the East Coast in the spring months (March/April/early May)….by mid May the force of the southerly flow/Bermuda High will eventually increase rainfall to some extent. In fact, one look at the 8 – 16 day rainfall which shows that warmer and wetter conditions are expected to develop as April advances from the Gulf to the Middle Atlantic, this tells me that old East Coast sultry southerly flow/monsoon is getting stronger:

Climate Prediction Center - 8 to 14 Day Outlook


Meanwhile…we’re in the drought…

[Cambium]

GFS has a monster Trough for this coming week. Had it been winter it would translate to Teens at night, 20s during day.

But since its April it will be 40s/50s during day and 30s at night. Should be near to below normal but we'll feel it and many people wil be wondering where the 60s are.

This is PERFECT weather IMO.

After next week we go back to warmth but maybe another trough again after that.



GFS Day time highs on Wednesday.

[Cambium]

Latest GFS....NO RAIN TILL THE 17TH! And even thats long range so who knows if that will disappear too.

Couple of drizzle cloudy days before then. Tues/Wed is our only chance of at least getting the grass blades wet.

BDR:

PRECIPITATION (IN)
MONTH TO DATE 0.27"
SINCE MAR 1: 1.31"
SINCE JAN 1: 5.87"
NORMAL BY NOW: 10.78"
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL: -4.91"
LAST YEAR THIS TIME: 13.14"

We need 5 inches of rain to get back to normal levels. Hartford pretty much the same. Entire State needs about 5 inches of rain.

[Cambium]

Smoke plume from big Waterbury fire showing up on radar

Abandoned factory near I-84 on Baldwin St

[GraniteStater]

The models had better turn this aruond and show a nice rainstorm soon. It would appear that central New England will see a few showers and some measurable precip this week, but amounts will be paltry,