[Cambium]

I think its pretty cool we're mentioning the "Chance" of Snow this late in the game. THIS WILL NOT BE A POWER OUTAGE EVENT OR A NO SCHOOL/WORK EVENT FOR CONNECTICUT. But it would be fun to see snow falling from sky and maybe even shoveable.

Roads wouldnt be an issue even with 4" this time of year but I doubt we see that. (except maybe above 2000')

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

I think its pretty cool we're mentioning the "Chance" of Snow this late in the game. THIS WILL NOT BE A POWER OUTAGE EVENT OR A NO SCHOOL/WORK EVENT FOR CONNECTICUT. But it would be fun to see snow falling from sky and maybe even shoveable.

Roads wouldnt be an issue even with 4" this time of year but I doubt we see that. (except maybe above 2000')

I know you really want to see snow…but I really think it is about a million to one shot at this point. The models always try to force in some blocking, then flip flop run after run. The low will eject through the Ohio Valley Friday and go flying off the Middle Atlantic coast…giving us rain in the Tri-State area. As a real stretch – I could only see the absolute highest elevations in NW CT seeing any flakes (which would melt on contact). Otherwise, I really think it is a pretty long shot. Atlantic SST are now into the lower 50's F...and near 70 F 150 mi southeast of Long Island. At this point...any wind of an easterly direction is just way too warm. Otherwise, I don't think any precip at all will reach us until next weekend after the showers on Sat.


Here is the current AFD….them seem pretty sure of the outcome across the Tri-State area:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
449 AM EDT THU MAR 29 2012

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF BLOCKING ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS PERIOD WITH EVEN SOME RIDGING POKING NORTHWARD INTO GREENLAND...ALBEIT WEAK. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WERE HINTING TOWARD A POLAR VORTEX DESCENDING SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION MID WEEK WITH THE NAO BECOMING NEGATIVE. HOWEVER...THE 00Z RUN HAS SINCE BACKED OFF...THUS MAINTAINING A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A STORM SYSTEM AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE TRI-STATE AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK...IN WHAT WILL BE A COLD RAIN. AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT. HIGHS SAT THOUGH MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S WITH THE CLOUD COVER...RAIN...AND ONSHORE FLOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND FOR SUN AND MON BEFORE A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW TUE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY WED. THE 00Z RUNS ARE ALSO POINTING TOWARD A SHORT WAVE TROF IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE NORTH...SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE KEPT SUN NIGHT DRY. NEED TO SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...BUT A DECENT FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AREA SUN NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH A MODERATION SUN-TUE. A COLD FRONT WED WILL DROP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES...BUT RIGHT NOW IT STILL LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.

[Cambium]

A little suprising to see this but who knows.

HPC Chance of snow of more than 1" of snow. 40% chance in Fairfield County? Maybe. Right before it melts as you blink? LOL!

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow

You can change the accumulation amount with the link.



FYI - They RARELY show over 80% even when Tornadoes about to hit. Baffles me. Even with this... they still think just a 50% chance for near Buffalo of over an inch? LMAO

[Cambium]

Video by Steve D. He specialized in Northern Mid Atlantic area but has been mentioning CT a lot lately. (I guess we're interesting) LOL!!

He has a slight warm bias. He did say no accuulating snow in October. LOL He did mention it here and explains the difference. I dont know who would compare this to that. Totally different.

Start at 3:00 - 5:15.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsvWQ...ature=youtu.be

[Cambium]

Joe Bastardi puts entire CT in path. LOL!!

Although he hasnt made a snowmap yet, he used the 0zNAM run from last night and likes that one best. (of course its the most snow for southern parts then other runs)

He said he doesnt think it will shift North.

Poor JB. Always entertaining....or sad, to watch.


Joe Bastardi on March 31, 2012 Storm - YouTube

[Cambium]

And here's Henry's take. And who said he hypes? He actually goes on a rant getting on other guys saying the long range is end of world senarios.. lol




Henry Margusity's Take on March 31, 2012 Storm - YouTube

Henry's Blg Link: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/a-little-snow-friday-night-more-heavy-storms/63404 (broken link)

[Cambium]

Evening Update: Models starting to trend south and colder. Everyone is going to be sleeping when this happens. So when they wake up and see nothing from the melting, they'l think it didnt snow. LOL!!

Very Comical Upton. It's always great to wait until last minute.

"THE TRI-STATE AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW...IN WHAT WILL BE A COLD RAIN. AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT...HOWEVER IF THE NEXT MODEL RUNS COME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER...LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE FORECAST."

LMAO!!

[Mixum]

this might be an odd comparison if u never saw the movie "big fish" ..... cambiums version of potential weather is like edward blooms stories while the others weather is like the local forecast u can see anywhere. at movies end, u find out the stories were basically true but just so much more entertaining then everyone else.

take it as a compliment cambium... keep up good work.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Mixum

this might be an odd comparison if u never saw the movie "big fish" ..... cambiums version of potential weather is like edward blooms stories while the others weather is like the local forecast u can see anywhere. at movies end, u find out the stories were basically true but just so much more entertaining then everyone else.

take it as a compliment cambium... keep up good work.

LMAO! Love it. :-) Fun and Passion, thats all.

I have to head to Hamden Saturday morning, planning on a wet ride.. :-)

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Cambium

"THE TRI-STATE AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW...IN WHAT WILL BE A COLD RAIN. AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT...HOWEVER IF THE NEXT MODEL RUNS COME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER...LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE FORECAST."

I guess they did. Even though there might not be accumulations, its Pretty cool we're still talking about frozen stuff being its 2 days from April. Long range looks like we will continue it.

Upton:

BL SHOULD COOL WITH EVAP COOLING...BUT COASTAL AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN TOO WARM FOR SNOW ATTM WITH INCREASING ELY ONSHORE FLOW. THE INTERIOR MAY COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR A MIX WITH SNOW OR A PERIOD OF SNOW. THE BEST WINDOW FOR THIS WOULD BE AFT 6Z SAT INTO THE MRNG HOURS. IF A CHANGEOVER DOES OCCUR...SOME SLUSHY LIGHT ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

Boston:

SIDED MORE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH IS PROJECTED TO BE VERY HIGH ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 600-500 MB /NEARLY
18000 FT UP/. THERMAL PROFILES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY...WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT FOR THE CRITICAL
BOUNDARY LAYER.

SINCE IT IS NOW THE END OF MARCH...THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP TO ACCUMULATE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH OR SO...BUT EVEN THEN MAINLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.