[Wilton2ParkAve]

The nor’easter this weekend is no more. Enjoy fall!

[simonusa3]

Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve

The nor’easter this weekend is no more. Enjoy fall!

I think they are saying there is still a chance of some rain this weekend, from a front and passing ocean storm far out to sea.

Temp wise it seems like typical November back and forth; It was cold (by November standards) Monday with highs only in the 40's F...today a tad warmer with low 50 's F ( but the wind will make it feel cooler)...

...then Friday winds turn southerly and we should get into the upper 50's to around 60 F:










...only to plunge right back to low 40's on Monday...







...then on the big travel day for Thanksgiving we could be looking at sunshine and temps into the low 60's on the coastal plain...






Lol. So in the next 8 days it looks like the typical November fight of two seasons ...

[Cambium]

Sorry for the delay..

November 18th NorEaster Update:

Most important part in bold. Merging of the 2 Jet Streams. Not enough cold for snow but when 2 jets merge it makes a storm stronger.

https://www.weather.gov/bgm/productText

National Weather Service New York NY
956 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2023

An amplifying upper level trough is expected to dive south from the
northern Plains state Friday. At the same time, low pressure will
develop and intensify over the Southeast U.S. Coast along the
subtropical jet. Phasing of the northern and southern jets looks to
occur sometime Friday night or Saturday morning. Once it does, rapid
intensification of the coastal storm is expected while the cold
front approaches the area from the west.

All models showing the NorEaster.
GFS the strongest.
Euro the weakest.
Canadian the slowest and furthest away.
German is the closest



So still not sure the strength, location, and speed but its there.

[simonusa3]

Looks like the latest thinking from NWS Upton... the low pressure this weekend is trending more out sea..


000
FXUS61 KOKX 142054
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
354 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2023

A sector of the southern jet stream is expected to phase with the
northern jet stream, leading to a stronger jet streak in the region.
This will allow a weak coastal system off of the south Atlantic
coast to rapidly strengthen as it tracks northward along the
Atlantic coast. The placement of this jet streak and the coastal low
vary among the available 12Z guidance, but most solutions now point
towards the coastal system tracking farther out to sea which means
POPs have been lowered in this forecast package to the
prior morning forecast package. It appears the 12Z GFS is the
outlier, still leaving the system with a track closer to the coast.
In that scenario, POPs may need to be raised. POPs are 40-50% for
much of the area early on Saturday with the eastern end of Long
Island and SE CT seeing increased chances of 60-70% due to their
proximity to the coastal low.

[Wilton2ParkAve]

Thanks Simon - I read that guidance before I posted this morning and was surprised to see a post that it was ‘back on all the models’. Will follow up before end of week.

[Cambium]

November 18th NorEaster Update:

All models showing merging Jet streams dont happen soon enough. Which means a nothing burger. Still only Wednesday but thats the update.

I remember snowstorms showing up within 1-3 days. Not saying this is anything near a snowstorm, just talking about what is needed to get this a big wind and rain event.

See it? Euro keeps the Jet stream separate Saturday morning



Then Saturday evening... BOOM... But its too far northeast. We would need the "Boom" to happen south of Nantucket preferable Mid Atlantic states for a big storm

[simonusa3]

Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve

Thanks Simon - I read that guidance before I posted this morning and was surprised to see a post that it was ‘back on all the models’. Will follow up before end of week.

No problem, glad to help.

Looks like now pretty much NWS has relegated it just coastal low passing well east. In fact, the cold front might be the bigger deal. We might see some rain showers ...but if trends continue some parts of Connecticut might not even see any rain at all;

000
FXUS61 KOKX 151903
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
203 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023


Dry and mild weather should persist into Fri before we deal with
cold front and possible coastal low Fri night and Sat. Starting
to see a trend toward a stronger northern stream trough which
would keep coastal low well out to sea and limit our rainfall to
approach and passage of cold front itself. Ensembles show
precipitable water values (available moisture) rising to around
1 inch Sat morning, which is roughly in 90th percentile when
compared to normal values for mid November. Despite unusually
high moisture, system will be progressive which will limit
rainfall amounts to 0.25 to 0.50 inch on average. Timing of
steadier rainfall should be late Fri night into Sat morning,
though it`s possible some showers linger into Sat afternoon,
especially across southern CT and eastern Long Island.

[Cambium]

Thanksgiving looking good but... Eve not so much

Not good for travellers. Still a week away but could start as frozen precip then turn to heavy rain and wind

[Cambium]

Temps next 7 days. Waiting for a couple warm days to put up Christmas lights.

This November seems like real warmth isnt lasting more than 2 days. Usually we get more 60s

Last year we had 11 days in the 60s. This year... 2 so far

[simonusa3]

In terms of November warmth...this Friday has the potential to be close to a record high at least at NWS Bridgeport. The record high for Friday, November 17th is 66 F (not all that high of a record to beat). The NWS forecast for Bridgeport for Friday is 63 F...but upper 60's F are not far away. We may get close: