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Old 11-13-2018, 07:59 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,527 posts, read 75,355,132 times
Reputation: 16626

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New NAM12z.... faster.....colder ... and more snow before a changeover to ice or rain.

Starts after 1pm Thursday for Southwest CT...after 3pm for central CT

This frame is for 4pm. Already snowing everywhere and thumping in SWCT.


 
Old 11-13-2018, 08:35 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,527 posts, read 75,355,132 times
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You don't think it will be cold enough? Guess again. lol.

1pm Temps Thursday. Not only this but dews will be in the single digits and teens. Plenty cold to snow.




1pm Dews. Crazy! Or too dry??!

Spoiler




Weather events is all about timing. If this cold air didn't move in, if the High Pressure didn't move in 12hrs before the storm, it would be another full rain event for us.
 
Old 11-13-2018, 08:56 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,527 posts, read 75,355,132 times
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NWS Forecast for Hartford. November or December?





About time. Since Mid October seems like we been mostly in a below normal pattern.

In fact, October 12-November 12 period Avg temp of 45.8° at BDL is coldest since 2002.
 
Old 11-13-2018, 09:00 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,527 posts, read 75,355,132 times
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Don't forget... Only 1 of the last 7 Decembers has been below normal at BDR. So there's hope December is record warm. lol


I hope not! I want a Proper Winter then Spring in March!
 
Old 11-13-2018, 09:18 AM
 
10,007 posts, read 11,166,459 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
NWS Forecast for Hartford. November or December?





About time. Since Mid October seems like we been mostly in a below normal pattern.

In fact, October 12-November 12 period Avg temp of 45.8° at BDL is coldest since 2002.
Mightly cold pattern. You may get your November snow..at least a little. Would have loved to see this in January...would have been interesting. Instead by the law of averages we will have a warmer pattern. Who knows maybe it will hold for awhile.
 
Old 11-13-2018, 09:48 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,527 posts, read 75,355,132 times
Reputation: 16626
After this weekend another reinforcing shot. Cold Turkey day next week? Might move out by then. We'll see.

GFS for Tuesday's temp anomalies at 5k.

I saw the Polar Vortex split, plus low solar, this all helps these cold airmasses come over Northeast U.S.

 
Old 11-13-2018, 10:09 AM
 
Location: New Britain, CT
1,572 posts, read 1,562,490 times
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1.13" of rain added for Hartford so far.
😒☔⚡
 
Old 11-13-2018, 10:47 AM
 
10,007 posts, read 11,166,459 times
Reputation: 6303
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
New NAM12z.... faster.....colder ... and more snow before a changeover to ice or rain.

Starts after 1pm Thursday for Southwest CT...after 3pm for central CT

This frame is for 4pm. Already snowing everywhere and thumping in SWCT.
NWS and weather channel have it at 1-3" right now for Danbury...

Edit actually weather channel has 1-3 in afternoon and 1-3 in evening. They give the worst snow accum forecasts.
 
Old 11-13-2018, 01:29 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,527 posts, read 75,355,132 times
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Thursday November 15 Winter Storm Update:: (been a while since I started like that. Lol)

New 18zNAM even colder and with a heavier burst of snow. Just in time for rush hour. Ugh!!

Thats like 3 runs in a row it got colder. Looks like it will be snowing statewide 4-8pm according to it.

Hang on for maps
 
Old 11-13-2018, 01:56 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,527 posts, read 75,355,132 times
Reputation: 16626
Ok, lets do some stills...


Per NAM model. Other models might differ in timing and Precip type!


1pm Thursday. Snowline approaching NYC. 1034 High over New England providing Fresh cold.





4pm. Snowing in Westchester County and Fairfield. Probably mixing in NYC.





7pm Thursday. Snowing Statewide and very heavy under the darker blues. . So basically a few hours of snow already has fallen in Fairfield County. Remember, the closer you are to the rain/snow line the heavier the snow will be. (cement like snow)





At 10pm we have changed over. So after 7pm the changeover starts...PER NAM model and this update.


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