[Cambium]

YES!! Bring on Spring. 50s and 60s only please! No 70s+ ever again! lol


GFS18z next Wednesday Max temps

[Cambium]

Feb 5-6 Storm. Read. Ok, maybe a bit technical but there's some you should understand. lol


https://www.facebook.com/nynjpaweath...15804548431203

Afternoon statement on storm potential for Sunday night:


The latest guidance continues to suggest that no phase will occur and only snow showers will be a threat on Sunday night into Monday. HOWEVER, I have seen this set up before and I continue to keep a close eye on this time period. As I have stated, the atmospheric set up on Sunday is such that if an interaction or phase occurs between the Sub Tropical and Polar jet streams, that a significant winter storm is possible. At this time, all models are still lacking strong sampling and resolution of both of these 500 MB shortwaves. This will be improved starting on Thursday. I have seen time and again how models lose a storm and then 2 days out, the storm forecast is back and rather impressive. I would strongly suggest not to discount winter storm impacts just yet.

In terms of the rest of the pattern, IMO, one storm influences the next. If the next storm does not phase, than the NAO goes positive and the storm later next week is a Lake Cutter, thus rain. If this storm does phase, you alter the entire 500 MB pattern and thus storm tracks on the East coast. This very well could be a pattern that just does have the timing just right and thus a very disappointing February for snow lovers. This can also go the other way VERY quickly.

[atgss]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Feb 5-6 Storm. Read. Ok, maybe a bit technical but there's some you should understand. lol


https://www.facebook.com/nynjpaweath...15804548431203

Seems like the atmosphere primes up a following weather system to what precipitation falls - interesting.

In my neck of the woods (SW NJ) at this point in time they're calling for afternoon rain showers on Sunday then party cloudy going into Monday morning.

And you wishing for warmer? You must be getting old(er).

[Stormscoming]

I think this could be a reverse psychology on Cambiums part. Almost a reverse jinx. Or he is just really mad about this lame winter. Been terrible.

[atgss]

Originally Posted by Stormscoming

I think this could be a reverse psychology on Cambiums part. Almost a reverse jinx. Or he is just really mad about this lame winter. Been terrible.

We'll know in 4 weeks time.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by lol-its-good4U

Seems like the atmosphere primes up a following weather system to what precipitation falls - interesting.

In my neck of the woods (SW NJ) at this point in time they're calling for afternoon rain showers on Sunday then party cloudy going into Monday morning.

Check out WPC discussion.... Waffles being served for this storm. LOL They are talking about the northern part of the puzzle.

MEANWHILE MODELS/MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE EAST... MOST LIKELY BEST DEFINED ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS... DURING THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO WAFFLE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS
FEATURE.

TOP CIRCLE(energy from Polar Jet Stream) NEEDS TO MERGE WITH BOTTOM CIRCLE (Southern Jet)




It does but over Nova Scotia. Too late for us! Needs to Merge in Ohio Valley or Mid Atlantic.


Those features aren't even close to being near the U.S yet.

[atgss]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Check out WPC discussion.... Waffles being served for this storm. LOL They are talking about the northern part of the puzzle.







TOP CIRCLE(energy from Polar Jet Stream) NEEDS TO MERGE WITH BOTTOM CIRCLE (Southern Jet)




It does but over Nova Scotia. Too late for us! Needs to Merge in Ohio Valley or Mid Atlantic.


Those features aren't even close to being near the U.S yet.

I wonder if the waffling will eventually catch up by months end?

The waffles they are serving sound more like wishy-washy thoughts.

Like if I pick the correct 6 numbers I'll win the NJ lottery but if only in the correct trance to pick them all correctly in the first place and it's snowing in NJ in July.

[Cambium]

So thats why my mail was late today. Lolol

https://twitter.com/StormchaserZach/...60133594955781

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

1 month to meteorological Spring! Can't wait.

3 maps..


Soon all that southern warmth will move north into us. We are still north of that front as usually are in Winter.

Kind of weird hearing this from you....

One of the many Facebook weather sites I look at noted something interesting about the 1.0" in Central Park yesterday. In a weird "luck of the date" stats, it is the first time since 1949 that an inch of snow or more fell there on Jan. 31. So thinking that BDR only started records in 1948, I wondered if that would make it their record snow for the date and indeed the record is.....3.5" in 1949.

[Cambium]

GAME OVER for Sunday Feb 5th storm. It's still on the map, GFS was right 10 days ago, just the little details aren't looking like its happening with merging of 2 storms.


Take a look. This is Sunday 7pm, see the 2 storms? What ashame. October snow curse continues for us.







BUT ....... Here we go with another one just 2 days later! With High pressure in that position over Quebec, its going to send down cold air and could be stubborn. So we could be getting a Snow to rain scenario for Tuesday. Rain because the storm heads to Great Lakes and sends a warm surge from the south into us.







Then...... after that Tuesday storm leaves...... Hang onto your hats. We go from 40s to 20s within 12hrs Wednesday night. Crashing temps. What ashame.