[jp03]

Originally Posted by wetnewspaper

I've noticed that Accuweather has tended to tread much warmer in their forecasts vs. that of the local outlets and the NWS. They offer a valuable perspective, although I think we should keep in mind that they think 90 day forecasts are a good idea too, which doesn't speak much to their credibility (I'm guessing marketers, not meteorologists, came up with that idea).

Agree on Accuweather..frankly, I only look at temp patterns more than 5 days out. I am learning to ignore the precip because its never right. Temperature -wise all offices even 2 weeks out have gotten better..not perfect but you can definitely see trends they pick up and are often right.

Weather channel has it downright frigid for an extended period end of next week with several snow events.

[Cambium]

Did your forecasts change to all snow now Sunday evening and night? lol


Trends today got snowier.


Canadian and GFS says 3 snow events next 10 days. 2 of them change to rain. I don't buy the 3 events.


Lets focus on 1 for now.


Sunday night. Euro and Canadian say 3-6". GFS 1-3"


Starts Sunday afternoon/evening

[gmdealerguy]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Did your forecasts change to all snow now Sunday evening and night? lol


Trends today got snowier.


Canadian and GFS says 3 snow events next 10 days. 2 of them change to rain. I don't buy the 3 events.


Lets focus on 1 for now.


Sunday night. Euro and Canadian say 3-6". GFS 1-3"


Starts Sunday afternoon/evening

[Poseidon3290]

Going to wait till Sat to get excited - a monday snow day would be amazing.

[Cambium]

Cast your vote.. https://www.city-data.com/forum/weath...most-snow.html

[jp03]

Originally Posted by JMagliola

Going to wait till Sat to get excited - a monday snow day would be amazing.

Interesting..weather channel is all in on snow 3-6 inches Sunday night into Monday.

Accuweather has sleet and rain mixed an inch or so. This is for Danbury.

[Cambium]

New GFS is mostly rain.

All outlets and forecasters are waiting for models to agree with eachother and have run to run consistency. Until then forecasts will differ and change.

Fun fun.

Me?.... I think we all start as snow Sunday evening..gets heavy overnight, total 1-4" then change to rain Monday.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

New GFS is mostly rain.

All outlets and forecasters are waiting for models to agree with eachother and have run to run consistency. Until then forecasts will differ and change.

Fun fun.

Me?.... I think we all start as snow Sunday evening..gets heavy overnight, total 1-4" then change to rain Monday.

Hmmm..Giants /Dallas in Meadowlands Sunday night..wonder if it will start early enough.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by jp03

Hmmm..Giants /Dallas in Meadowlands Sunday night..wonder if it will start early enough.

I know someone going. Should be fun to see.


So basically this could boil down to storm strength...and the opposite of usual. If the storm is stronger we get more rain. If the storm is weaker we get more snow. Go figure right?


Too lazy to explain. You'll probably come across a video explaining. Or discussion.

[Cambium]

Euro overnight now also has multiple winter weather events next 10 days.


What do you get when you combine a Pacific flow with the Arctic over the U.S?

National Weather Service New York NY
452 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

A series of cold fronts will move across through Saturday.

An active period of winter weather looks to be setting up for next
week. While there is considerable data spread lending uncertainty to
the exact details, what is fairly certain is that an arctic airmass
and Pacific jet will combine to provide the dynamics, thermal
gradient and moisture needed for periods of potentially hazardous
weather.

Sunday and Monday: Low pressure ejects from the Rockies onto the
Plains and tracks quickly eastward across the country. The warm
front associated with the system will begin to approach the area
from the west by Sunday night. Ahead of the surface front,
overrunning precipitation should produce at least some light snow
across the area Sunday afternoon and evening. The exact track of the
low and associated warm front will then be critical to when and if
the precipitation changes over to rain, sleet or even freezing rain
Sunday night into Monday.

Right now the models suggest the warm
front gets to roughly the vicinity of the Mass Pike. However, this
is too far out to have any confidence on this fine of detail, so a
broad rain or snow approach was used in the forecast. Significant
snowfall is most likely across the northern and western interior,
even if there is indeed a changeover in those areas .

As a result, the
Hazardous Weather Outlook will include Orange county in a 6 inch
snowfall risk. The precipitation may change back to a snow, again
depending on track which means the dry slot in this case, at the end
of the event. The biggest hazard Monday night however may be the
development of black ice.

When NWS NY says "northern & western interior" they are only speaking about their coverage area. So look at the green on this map to see their coverage area. So "northern and western" = Southern NY, CT, and part of NJ