[wavehunter007]

One other point about the drought:

We all know that forecasts out this far can be off....but its interesting that NOAA sees no above normal chances for percip well into next year for the NY/NJ/CT area. The EC mean equal chances, all things being equal, it might be a long time before we can erase this drought, especially if November keeps up this dry and storm free pattern:




A month from now, this map might show the whole state under Severe Drought Mode:

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

These computer generated fantasy forecasts are ruining whatever respect people had for weather as a science.

Seems like your not knowledgeable about the way models work which is fine but then a comment like that comes out.. You do realize NWS using them, right? And You used 1 model with 3 updates as a forecast????? That's a NO NO.


Then again.. I see this and it seems like a trend.

Posted November 13, 2012

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

The FACT is that the pattern looks to have ABSOULTLY NO BELOW NORMAL COLD TEMPS for the eastern USA in the coming 2 to 3 weeks.

and it ended up the Top 10 coldest Novembers.

Posted November 5, 2012

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

According to the NWS - the storm on Wed will bring RAIN for the Tri-State area.

and it ended up biggest November snowstorm for Bridgeport that I kept saying models were showing

Posted December 16, 2011

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

The storm will head out to sea...only far Cape Cod will see something (about a 10% chance as of right now).

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

long term averages...a real “blizzard “ is likely a very long shot.

and it ended up a major blizzard on the 26th that models showed a week before

Posted October 14,2013

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Still, I see no below normal cold for the Tri-State area at least to mid November...so we all should save a bit on heating for the next 30 days or so:

There have been 12 below normal days since that.

Its the same song and dance. Same as those Facebook pages who guaranteed a snowstorm next week. Its the same thing. The true hype, bias, and agenda comes when someone can't even agree 40s & 50s is not warm and fails to even post about the Arctic blast coming.

[Mixum]

As much as it pains me to say.... And it pains me...... I think this winter is gonna be one of the worst ever for storm lovers.

[htfdcolt]

We have had measurable, often significant, snow in the Hartford area prior to mid-December in each of the past 6 seasons. That hardly qualifies as a "million to one" shot per climatology.

[Brian26]

Stay tuned! Things can change. High pressure and cold will be in control...

Are chances lessening for a coastal storm? Attached is a loop of 3 "long" term models: the European, GFS, and Canadian. The loop starts at 7 pm Tuesday (Wednesday 00Z) and ends 7 pm Friday (Saturday 00Z). All are in agreement with a cold front offshore and strong high pressure building in Wednesday. Although the European model is the only model generating a coastal low off the southeast U.S. coast Wednesday night, it takes it well south and east of the area, with no impact to our region. The other 2 keeps high pressure well entrenched over the area (although the Canadian does not go as far out in time as the other 2, the last frame available suggests that a coastal storm will not affect our region). Although not totally out of the clear yet, there is some model agreement that high pressure will be in control. Stay tuned for further updates!

[Wilton2ParkAve]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

One other point about the drought:

We all know that forecasts out this far can be off....but its interesting that NOAA sees no above normal chances for percip well into next year for the NY/NJ/CT area. The EC mean equal chances, all things being equal, it might be a long time before we can erase this drought, especially if November keeps up this dry and storm free pattern:




A month from now, this map might show the whole state under Severe Drought Mode:

This is the same position held by NOAA going into 2011 which ended up producing 25 inches more rain than average. Oh well!

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

We have had measurable, often significant, snow in the Hartford area prior to mid-December in each of the past 6 seasons. That hardly qualifies as a "million to one" shot per climatology.

That's the other thing!! Continued false information, "million to one"??

Lets get the facts straight without the typical hype. IT DOES Snow in October, November and Before December 15th. Period. We do get big storms. Period.

Just a "few" for Hartford and we can keep going back. This is JUST November. Not October. Not December 1-15. Seems like a few times per decade and that doesn't qualify for rare or "million to one"

1967: 3.7"
1968: 7.9"
1971: 8.2"
1978: 4.3"
1980: 8.6"
1986: 8.7"
1987: 8.6"
1989: 5.3"
1994: 3.9"
1995: 5.6"
2012: 3.0"

[andthentherewere3]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

One things seems certain at this point....cool or warm....there is a growing drought in the Tri-State area and parts of the East Coast. In CT, the worst areas seem to coastal/southern and southwestern CT where we are now in SEVERE Drought mode. It seems that all the dry weather, sunshine, and no storms is really catching up with us. From north Florida, through eastern parts of South and North Carolina, to northern NJ, CT, and Rhode Island, the drought is growing.






Now that the computer generated storm seems like it will have no impact on the Tri-State area....there seems to be little real rain (maybe sprinkles on Tue/Wed) in the forecast for another 7 days. Just dry air and sunshine.

The drought to me is a lot more newsworthy than the endless drum-pounding regarding the non-snow event this week. Wishing for snow makes some overlook reality. The rivers, streams and ponds near me have practically dried up due to the lack of precipitation. Last week I saw a brush fire on the side of the road. Hopefully we will get some rain soon, because alas, it is really too soon to expect a big snow event, as Cambium' s snow totals for the last 50 years just confirmed. Significant snowfall in November is the exception, not the norm.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by mikelizard860

Can you explain to me why meriden airport, ct is colder than montreal by 10 degrees? It's also colder than bdl at 10 degrees. That weather station always seems to report colder in the morning than surrounding areas for some reason. It's not in a deep valley(300 feet in meriden). Seems to be their weather equipment might be off.

Could be Lakehurst, NJ in reverse, LOL! (Cambium knows what I'm talking about).

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Pretty typical stuff it seems, long term climatology really made the chance of a significant snow event before mid-December in the Tri-State area a million to one shot. Climatology always seems the safest bet when faced with the fantasy forecasts of the models/media. NWS Mount Holly already seems to have given up this morning:

Actually while climatology shows that sticking snow in November is the extreme exception not the norm on the CT coast (and in the rest of CT, a sometimes occurance that doesn't happen every year), that's not what happened here.

In fact ironically it is COLDER than normal weather that is going to keep us from getting our snowstorm, not the climatic dice. Basically a cold high pressure system is suppressing the storm south, without it it would be Oct 29, 2012 and Nov 7, 2013 repeating itself. The only minor part where climatology came into play with this one is that a weaker pressure that allows the storm to not be suppressed may have been just warmer enough to make it rain.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

Significant snowfall in November is the exception, not the norm.

Not the norm. But not rare as one might try to tell you.. and adding December into the mix is an obvious effort in something.

Also keep in mind.. a 2 or 3 inch "accumulation" doesn't mean there wasn't a big snowstorm around. We all know how hard it is too accumulate at the airports or how long it takes to stick. So that right there should tell you we shouldn't use accumulation to talk about how normal "storms" are this time of year..

Case in point. I Forgot to add 2002 into the data up there. Bridgeport with 3" of snow November 27, 2002. One might say not a big storm by looking just at that number... meanwhile 8-12" fell in parts of the state and 8.9 inches at BDL! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/snowrpts/NO280200

If I post all the accumulating years as well I think we'll realize we get snow this time of year as one might try to deviate from..

Hey, ask him to post Wednesday's High temps. Get the violin out first. LOL

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

In fact ironically it is COLDER than normal weather that is going to keep us from getting our snowstorm, not the climatic dice. Basically a cold high pressure system is suppressing the storm south,

Thank You. The RARE 1045mb Arctic High is why. In fact its something I fear we might be seeing a lot of this year. Suppressed storms with less snowstorms but these cold Highs dropping down.

SFC HIGH PROGGED TO BE ABOUT 1045MB AT THE PEAK. THIS IS A PRETTY RARE EVENT...ESPECIALLY FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON - INDICATED BY THE NEARLY +3 STD DEVIATION VALUE ON THE NORMALIZED ANOMALY CHARTS.