[Cambium]

6 days in a row the mean temp is below normal

With todays low of 6 degrees below normal have to see what the high is because it should get to low-mid 70s. The mean might still be below normal today.

[Cambium]

Temperature departure from normal in the Northeast last 7 days. http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php?action=update_daterange&daterange=7d

For those that don't understand this.. This is a map that shows where temps over the last 7 days been below normal, normal or above normal.

Blues and Purples are well below normal. Dark green is below normal. Light green is slightly below to normal.

It's using the average temp for the past 7 days.

[Cambium]

Looking back at some older posts as a learning experience for me to see if there was a trend I was seeing that made me comment on the longer range.

Posted September 14, 2012.

Originally Posted by Cambium

Ok, I have to ask. Don't roll your eyes at me for it. lol

What are the chances we see snow in October again or a snowstorm in October or November??

Give me some odds because I'm baffled at the "pattern" I'm seeing evolve.

Just give me some odds, thats all.

Sure enough we had the biggest November snowstorm on record. So I was seeing something 2 months prior that favored the setup.

Originally Posted by Cambium

This is a "pattern" that is starting to evolve and favor a cold snowy Northeast!

We weren't cold but we had above normal snow.

Also... reminder to self... Remember the fact that November was in the Top 10 coolest months last year but then it flipped to a warmer first half of winter. So even if October ends up cold, it means nothing for winter. It can flip easily. I try to look for the overall "flow" of things to see if its favoring the West, Central or East. Including looking at the ingredients we need for it to happen.

[wavehunter007]

Today is the "day before" the greatest storm of any kind to ever strike the Tri-State area hit - NWS has a bit of a write up today. Reading back the data and strength of the cyclone...its hard to imagine a storm like this ever hit Connecticut/Long Island:

The Great New England Hurricane of 1938

"On September 21, 1938, one of the most destructive and powerful hurricanes in recorded history struck Long Island and Southern New England. The storm developed near the Cape Verde Islands on September 9, tracking across the Atlantic and up the Eastern Seaboard. The storm hit Long Island and Southern Connecticut on September 21, moving at a forward speed of 47 mph! Sustained hurricane force winds were felt across central and eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut. The hurricane produced a destructive storm surge flooding coastal communities as well as producing three to seven inches of rainfall.

This website provides historical information, meteorology, damage photos, video, and news clippings of this powerful hurricane. A focus will be on the locations within the National Weather Service New York, NY forecast area"




FACTS
◾
Max Recorded Sustained Wind: 121 mph at Blue Hill Observatory, MA

◾
Max Recorded Wind Gust: 186 mph at Blue Hill Observatory, MA

◾
Highest Sustained Wind Measurement not Influenced by Terrain: 109 mph at Fishers Island, NY (Landsea et al 2013)

◾
Lowest Observed Pressure: 27.94 in (946.2 mb) at Bellport, NY

◾
Estimated Lowest Pressure: 27.79 in (941 mb) near Brentwood, NY as the wind and pressure centers were slightly displaced due to its fast speed and extra-tropical transition (Landsea et al. 2013, National Hurricane Center; Hurricane Research Division Re-Analysis Project)

◾
Speed at landfall: 47 mph (Landsea et al. 2013, National Hurricane Center; Hurricane Research Division Re-Analysis Project)

◾
Peak Storm Surge: 17' above normal high tide (Rhode Island)

◾
Peak Wave Height: 50' at Gloucester, MA

◾
Deaths: 700

◾
Homeless: Approx. 63,000

◾
Homes/Buildings Destroyed: Approx. 8,900

◾
Trees Destroyed: Approx. 2 Billion

◾
Boats Lost or Destroyed: Approx. 3,300

◾
Cost: $620 million (1938 Dollars); Equivalent to approx. $41 billion using 2005 inflation, wealth, and population normalization then estimated to 2010 Dollars (Blake and Gibney 2011).


Information from Francis (1998) unless otherwise noted.



Damage to Saltaire, NY, top (Source: saltarian.com) and significant flooding to Mystic, CT, bottom (Source: MysticSeaport.org)

Long Island Highlights
◾
Landfall near Bellport, NY sometime between 2:10 and 2:40 pm EST as a Category 3 with an approx. pressure of 27.79 in (941 mb) and a 120 mph maximum sustained wind (Landsea et al. 2013).

◾
Around 60 lives were lost and hundreds injured.

◾
Thousands of homes and cottages destroyed or damaged. Many farms destroyed and their livestock killed.

◾
6.2 million dollars (1938 Dollars) in damage in the Hamptons alone.

◾ A 16.75' Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) storm tide occurred at Willets Point which is a record height that still remains today (gauge later moved to Kings Point)

◾An estimated storm tide of 15' across eastern Long Island. 8' MLLW was record at Port Jefferson.

◾The storm surge in Western Long Island Sound was 5 1/2 hrs AFTER landfall.

◾
20,000 miles of power and telephone lines downed (Mandia 2013).

◾
Ten new inlets formed from the storm from Fire Island to East Hampton. The most notable was Shinnecock Inlet. A few others have since been filled by artificial means.

◾
Montauk was an island temporarily.

◾
LIRR tracks were washed out.

◾
Fishing industry wiped out and half of the apple crop destroyed.


Southern Connecticut Highlights
◾
Hurricane made second landfall around 4 pm somewhere between Bridgeport and New haven as a Category 3 with an approx. pressure of 27.94 in (946 mb) and a 115 mph maximum sustained wind (Landsea et al. 2013).

◾
Hundreds of lives were lost with many injured.

◾
Extensive damage to homes, trees, and crops.

◾The storm tide at New London was 10.58' MLLW which is a record tide that still remains today.
◾
Stamford recorded a 14.1' MLLW storm tide and Bridgeport recorded a 12.8' MLLW storm tide.

◾
Bridges, utilities, and railroads were wiped out.

◾
Catastrophic damage to fishing fleets.



New York City Highlights
◾
Water rose 7' within 30 minutes in New York Harbor.


Storm tide of 8.21' was recorded at the battery.
◾
Central Park: 60 mph (30')

◾
Daily News Bldg: 90 mph (500')

◾
Empire State Bldg: est.120 mph (1250')

◾
Battery: 70 mph with 80 mph gust (30'


.

[Cambium]

Some of us need it, Some of us don't, Some of us want it, some of us don't,...but we're all getting it.... RAIN! lol

Sat night into Sun morning. I think we clear out after 2pm Sunday.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION SAT NIGHT WITH SURFACE WAVE TRANSLATING NE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY SHOWS A NICE TROPICAL CONNECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WORKING NE FROM MEXICO. WITH GOOD SYNOPTIC FORCING AND ABOVE FEATURES...A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS IS LIKELY SAT NIGHT. EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE WILL DETERMINE WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS WILL OCCUR.

[Csiko]

I certainly don't mind it. I love the dry autumn weather but a little rain here and there's just fine.

Especially since it seems like next week we should expect more sunny and 60s-70s. Can't wait~

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Csiko

I certainly don't mind it. I love the dry autumn weather but a little rain here and there's just fine.

Especially since it seems like next week we should expect more sunny and 60s-70s. Can't wait~

Agree. I should note... we haven't had this in a long while. This isn't just the typical summer rains we have gotten.

Low level jet is strengthening. That means banding rains and wind. Haven't seen that in a while. Nothing to panic or hype about though. Just different from the silence lately

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Agree. I should note... we haven't had this in a long while. This isn't just the typical summer rains we have gotten.

Low level jet is strengthening. That means banding rains and wind. Haven't seen that in a while. Nothing to panic or hype about though. Just different from the silence lately

Warm day today out there..a/c kicking in..typical for late September still have chances at temps up toward 80.

So is this a quiet tropical weather year or what?!! Lets give kudos to all those long term hurricane forecasts who hit right on the head................er wait a minute, never mind.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by jp03

Warm day today out there..a/c kicking in..typical for late September still have chances at temps up toward 80.

So is this a quiet tropical weather year or what?!! Lets give kudos to all those long term hurricane forecasts who hit right on the head................er wait a minute, never mind.

LMAO! Love the sarcasm. When are we/they gonna learn storms cannot be predicted "MONTHS" away....yet.

BDL hit 80. The Last 80 degree day in 2012 was 9/14 for them.
First 80 degree day in 2013...5/2. So....this is most likely goodbye 80s

[wavehunter007]

Although not common (and I think those who like it cool will not need the AC anymore)....I would not be so quick to say goodby to the 80's in the Tri-State...lol.

Just 2 years ago October 2011 = 85 F on October 10th (79 F on October 9th)....

So I think 90's might be gone until spring....but with the warmer than normal fall NOAA is expected I would caution 80's (or near 80 F ) is still always in the mix.

In any event....Perfect beach day today - 78 F, low humidity, and deep blue skies!