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Old 03-23-2013, 09:43 AM
 
10,007 posts, read 11,158,193 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rajmelk View Post
In all fairness...said poster did make an appearance after the Mar 7-8 "bust that wasn't" snow event.
..true.. but once the bust fell through it was buh bye!

But in all truth, after this snow I hope it warms up...I don't want this in April.

 
Old 03-23-2013, 10:16 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,513 posts, read 75,277,900 times
Reputation: 16619
Quote:
Originally Posted by rajmelk View Post
just curious as to the big discrepancy...
Probably basing it on the Euro blend staying south

Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
They may be partially basing it on simple "climatology",
Plus this too. Late March snow averages are little., us Most of snow will fall during the day so they are probably eliminating a good 2-3" from that



Quote:
Originally Posted by jp03 View Post
It seems the NWS downplays EVERY storm in the official forecast lately. .
Then there's this truth too.

Will wait for all 12z model updates and be back later.
 
Old 03-23-2013, 10:21 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,513 posts, read 75,277,900 times
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12z GFS just out has nothing for CT. Big hit for Southern NJ with blizzard conditions for few hours.

Can't believe we're within 48hrs and models still spread apart how far north it comes.

I dont blame Upton this time...

It seems like its Canadien/NAM/SREF vs GFS/EURO/?
 
Old 03-23-2013, 11:19 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,513 posts, read 75,277,900 times
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So HPC saying the GFS had problems at the start. So maybe no snow for CT is wrong completely because of it. Euro out in an hour be back after that

WPC's Model Diagnostics Discussion


MEANWHILE...THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE LOCAL PROBLEMS WITH CORPUS CHRISTI TX AS IT IS ABOUT 6 DEGREES TO WARM AT 850-MB AND NOT NEARLY DRY ENOUGH IN THE 850-700-MB LAYER.
 
Old 03-23-2013, 02:07 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,513 posts, read 75,277,900 times
Reputation: 16619
Looks like the Euro says move on.... dont believe the hype.

Joe Rao explains it well. Like his page, he's getting technical lately.
https://www.facebook.com/rao12

SO WHICH CAMP ARE YOU JOINING ON MONDAY? -- Basically Monday's forecast depends on which group of computer models you believe in. In one camp we have the North American Model (NAM) and Canadian Global (GGEM) which bring us an accumulating snow. The NAM in fact, wants to dump about 14-inches during the day on Monday, as it moves the coastal system from the Virginia Capes at 8 a.m. to a position a...bout 100 miles east of Toms River, NJ by 8 p.m. Monday night. The GGEM also brings the Hudson Valley snow . . . in fact it has it starting before sunrise on Monday. But its snow totals are far less than the NAM's . . . only about 1 to 3-inches.

Take note that two days ago the GGEM was hammering us with about 20-inches of slushy snow for Monday . . . then yesterday it backpedaled to 4 to 6 and now it's down to 1 to 3.

Does anybody see a trend here?
 
Old 03-23-2013, 02:12 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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What a windy day today. Seems that way for months now getting these constant 30mph wind gusts.

Here's a look at the temps, wind chill and wind gusts.

We made it into the 40s but the winds are making it feel like 30s.

Temps in Black, Wind Chill in Blue, Wind gusts in Red

 
Old 03-23-2013, 03:26 PM
 
754 posts, read 1,017,845 times
Reputation: 208
Yeah TWC has it down to 30% precip chance Monday
 
Old 03-23-2013, 03:54 PM
 
1,344 posts, read 1,742,969 times
Reputation: 1750
Thanks Camb for your dedication with keeping this thread alive! A lot better than the wishcasting, bittercasting, etc over on the accuwx forum!
 
Old 03-23-2013, 03:55 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,513 posts, read 75,277,900 times
Reputation: 16619
I think we should move on with a snow threat unless something drastic happens overnight that shows a more northward progress.

I'm moving on but will watch the snowstorm south of us which should be interesting break some records maybe
 
Old 03-23-2013, 05:19 PM
 
Location: Warren County, NJ
708 posts, read 1,059,910 times
Reputation: 1100
So I went to Accuweather this morning and they were showing 1-3 inches for my town here in NJ.Just now,I checked and its gone up to 2-4.Still not bad.I also checked Bridgeport and Mystic,(I loved it there) and they are showing 1-3.Maybe we're dodging a bullet here!
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