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View Poll Results: Will Columbus ever be the largest metro in Ohio?
Yes (definitely) 68 51.13%
No (never) 25 18.80%
Maybe 40 30.08%
Voters: 133. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 09-04-2023, 11:55 AM
 
204 posts, read 71,733 times
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I was able to work out the permit numbers for 2020-2022 for city boundary only. Here they are.

Total Permitted Units
Cincinnati: 2,837
Cleveland: 368
Columbus: 16,946
Dayton: 476
Toledo: 604
Akron and Youngstown don't have published numbers for the period.

City Boundary % of Total Metro Units
Cincinnati: 12.93%
Cleveland: 3.52%
Columbus: 46.41%
Dayton: 7.93%
Toledo: 15.54%
These numbers suggest that Columbus alone receives a significant portion of construction compared to the overall metro, certainly bigger than any other single county or location, while all other cities in the state have most of their construction in the greater metro rather than the city. At least in the 3 years measured, Cleveland had the lowest city share by far.

Single Family Permitted Units as a % of Total City Units
Cincinnati: 15.54%
Cleveland: 76.9%
Columbus: 14.1%
Dayton: 10.29%
Toledo: 10.93%

Multi-Family Permitted Units as a % of Total Units
Cincinnati: 84.46%
Cleveland: 23.1%
Columbus: 85.9%
Dayton: 89.71%
Toledo: 89.07%

Cleveland really sticks out here, too. It really matches the overall metro numbers in that while most construction is occurring outside of the city, what is getting built there in recent years is low-density, SFH. As some suggested, part of this could be due to more renovations there, but cities like Cincinnati should also be seeing a lot of renovations given that it probably has the most intact historic core of any of them, yet it's not showing up in the numbers like that. I can't imagine that Cleveland is seeing so many more renovations compared to Cincinnati as to be skewing the numbers by 60 points.

So while it's hard to make definitive conclusions by these numbers alone, they do suggest that only Columbus is seeing most metro construction within the core city, and also that only Cleveland proper is seeing the bulk of city construction being SFH. From these numbers, Cleveland and Columbus couldn't be more different in terms of their current development patterns. All other cities in the state share at least the same type of city construction.
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Old 09-04-2023, 02:26 PM
 
Location: Cincinnati
4,479 posts, read 6,232,680 times
Reputation: 1331
Quote:
Originally Posted by cheech14 View Post
So while it's hard to make definitive conclusions by these numbers alone, they do suggest that only Columbus is seeing most metro construction within the core city, and also that only Cleveland proper is seeing the bulk of city construction being SFH.
All of this means pretty much nothing except that Columbus requires permits for more items than other areas (or less items) .... well my argument is limited to Cincy and C-bus simply because Ive spent enough time looking at city websites on labor day...lol

Columbus:

https://www.columbus.gov/bzs/permits...ntial-Permits/

Quote:
Roof, siding, doors and windows
When replacing a roof, siding, exterior door or window, an appropriate permit for this work is required. Any combination of the above items may be obtained under a single permit if applied for at the same time. This permit only comes with one inspection.
versus

Cincy:

https://www.cincinnati-oh.gov/buildi...need-a-permit/

Quote:
Generally, you don't need a permit for these projects at 1-, 2- and 3-family detached dwellings*:

Repair and replacement of windows (as long as they're the same size and same type)
Roof coverings (no more than two layers of roofing material)
Example: Columbus requires permits to replace windows and Cincinnati does not unless the window opening needs to be resized because that is considered a structural change and proper load transfer needs to be verified, thus triggering an inspection between framing alterations and window installment. Permitting rules can vary a lot between municipalities. So these numbers do not give an accurate picture as to what is actually happenning on the ground but show Columbus requires permits for more items than other areas. Also, multiple permits can be required for the same structure so for areas that are more stingent, we should excpect more permits for various trades and for various reasons. Conversely, should a contractor have his act together he can permit multiple items under the same permit but you only get one inspection. That can cause a nightmare and hold up work waiting on verious items to be completed at time of inspection: so that could work out, or cause a nightmare depending on the scope of work. As a contractor who has pulled permits all over the Cincinnati area I can tell you that each municpality has its own permitting requirement. Some may be the same, similar, or radically different.

Please keep in mind that Im not anti-bldg permit but bldg permits are all about generating money for municipalities. That simple. In my experience, building inspectors are not the sharpest knives in the drawer, while some are highly skilled and educated, most are not. Ive over-ridden building inspectors many times over the years using the help of structural engineers who carry a structural engineer's rubber stamp. That rubber stamp holds up in court as well, as Ive worked with attorneys who used structural engineers on code violations that turned criminal after neglect by the building owners. In the matter Im citing the city lost and the property owner was vindicated by a structural engineer who overturned the violations.


Please note, Im not trying to deny that a crap ton of construction is happening in Columbus...cause it is...just saying that the numbers reflect more permits and multiple reasons to pull a permit. Ive found the city of Cincinnati easier to navigate versus Hamilton or Middletown which have some of the strictest permitting rules in the state.

Its likely that columbus has the most construction currently in the state given the growth you guys are having. However, permit numbers alone primarily show reasons for pulling a permit and people are being obedient and pulling permits as required.

Last edited by TomJones123; 09-04-2023 at 02:50 PM..
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Old 09-04-2023, 03:37 PM
 
204 posts, read 71,733 times
Reputation: 200
Quote:
TomJones123;65785997]All of this means pretty much nothing except that Columbus requires permits for more items than other areas (or less items) .... well my argument is limited to Cincy and C-bus simply because Ive spent enough time looking at city websites on labor day...lol

Columbus:

https://www.columbus.gov/bzs/permits...ntial-Permits/

versus

Cincy:

https://www.cincinnati-oh.gov/buildi...need-a-permit/
But we're talking about permits for new construction. As I said, permits for renovations may be different, but I don't think renovations are anywhere near the dominant form of construction in any of the metros or cities. It's very much a secondary activity, not the primary.

Quote:
Example: Columbus requires permits to replace windows and Cincinnati does not unless the window opening needs to be resized because that is considered a structural change and proper load transfer needs to be verified, thus triggering an inspection between framing alterations and window installment. Permitting rules can vary a lot between municipalities. So these numbers do not give an accurate picture as to what is actually happenning on the ground but show Columbus requires permits for more items than other areas. Also, multiple permits can be required for the same structure so for areas that are more stingent, we should excpect more permits for various trades and for various reasons. Conversely, should a contractor have his act together he can permit multiple items under the same permit but you only get one inspection. That can cause a nightmare and hold up work waiting on verious items to be completed at time of inspection: so that could work out, or cause a nightmare depending on the scope of work. As a contractor who has pulled permits all over the Cincinnati area I can tell you that each municpality has its own permitting requirement. Some may be the same, similar, or radically different.
But again, the comparison is not about the total number of permits issued for all actions related to housing, but specifically permits for residential units being built or added to an area. Many renovation permits would have nothing to do with adding units, but rather just updating existing ones. You'd have to have lots of vacant buildings that are not adding to the housing stock being converted or renovated into new housing, and that just doesn't happen nearly as much as building new. You'd be talking about a relatively small number in comparison. Probably no more than 10%-20% at best in any given year barring a major conversion. There's also just the fact that major renovations tend to cost more than building new, which is why they happen a lot less. As such, the differences in the renovation permitting process would not affect the given numbers.

Quote:
Please note, Im not trying to deny that a crap ton of construction is happening in Columbus...cause it is...just saying that the numbers reflect more permits and multiple reasons to pull a permit. Ive found the city of Cincinnati easier to navigate versus Hamilton or Middletown which have some of the strictest permitting rules in the state.
The numbers do not in any way reflect the things you were talking about, such as window replacement. These numbers are only for total units permitted through new construction. Renovations- even those that would add completely new units- are not included. Those would be relatively minor, though, anyway.

Cincinnati's breakdown of city construction numbers aren't that different, at least in building type, to Columbus. The only difference is that city construction is much less compared to metro construction.
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Old 09-04-2023, 03:54 PM
 
Location: Cincinnati
4,479 posts, read 6,232,680 times
Reputation: 1331
Quote:
Originally Posted by cheech14 View Post
But we're talking about permits for new construction.
Doesnt matter. I picked on window replacement as an example. Its not all encompassing. Building permits, reasons to pull them, who pulls them, and where is extremely subjective and only shows more permits pulled.....again, if a municipality is more stringent then you get more permits. What your really showing is columbus is making more money off of developent, developers, contractors, and home owners that other areas.
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Old 09-04-2023, 06:57 PM
 
383 posts, read 512,140 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TomJones123 View Post
Doesnt matter. I picked on window replacement as an example. Its not all encompassing. Building permits, reasons to pull them, who pulls them, and where is extremely subjective and only shows more permits pulled.....again, if a municipality is more stringent then you get more permits. What your really showing is columbus is making more money off of developent, developers, contractors, and home owners that other areas.
I'm no expert in this but wouldn't the numbers be much higher for every metro if it included all the various types of permits you can pull. I don't know the data set that is being used but right away, the numbers look way to low if that includes all permits even if a city doesn't require as many as another city. Thoughts?
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Old 09-04-2023, 07:31 PM
 
Location: Cincinnati
4,479 posts, read 6,232,680 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cbusflyer View Post
I'm no expert in this but wouldn't the numbers be much higher for every metro if it included all the various types of permits you can pull. I don't know the data set that is being used but right away, the numbers look way to low if that includes all permits even if a city doesn't require as many as another city. Thoughts?
Well, you can tell people they need a permit to change a door know but how do you enforce it? In Cincinnati at least, building inspectors cant enter a property without permission, they cant just walk in. So they look for visible signs of violations and such. Beyond that, its very hard to enforce. By far there are more people who do not pull permits than do. Why would anyone want to give their money away when the odds of getting caught are low and you can buy your way out of it and deal with some delays should you get a stop work order? Some pull permits out of an ethical motivation and some pull permits because the job is too big to hide...most dont pull them at all if they can get away with it.

So my point is that the numbers are extremely subjective and subject to a wide margin of error. Thers just too many differences amongst municipalities to go by the numbers alone. That columbus is growing at a fast rate is obvious and doesnt need these stats to prove it. My only qualm is using these numbers at a face value comparison. No offence to anyone either, not wanting to be disagreeable. So..peace!

Its plausible that new construction permits only show too big to hide jobs and dont accurately reflect organic growth from smaller investors.
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Old 09-05-2023, 07:49 AM
 
383 posts, read 512,140 times
Reputation: 515
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomJones123 View Post
Well, you can tell people they need a permit to change a door know but how do you enforce it? In Cincinnati at least, building inspectors cant enter a property without permission, they cant just walk in. So they look for visible signs of violations and such. Beyond that, its very hard to enforce. By far there are more people who do not pull permits than do. Why would anyone want to give their money away when the odds of getting caught are low and you can buy your way out of it and deal with some delays should you get a stop work order? Some pull permits out of an ethical motivation and some pull permits because the job is too big to hide...most dont pull them at all if they can get away with it.

So my point is that the numbers are extremely subjective and subject to a wide margin of error. Thers just too many differences amongst municipalities to go by the numbers alone. That columbus is growing at a fast rate is obvious and doesnt need these stats to prove it. My only qualm is using these numbers at a face value comparison. No offence to anyone either, not wanting to be disagreeable. So..peace!

Its plausible that new construction permits only show too big to hide jobs and dont accurately reflect organic growth from smaller investors.
I just don't see it, in three years 2020-2022 which is what the OP is quoting, 368 total permits have been pull for the City of Cleveland? That has to be new building permit starts. Not that it really matters but I can't wrap my head around how low these numbers are for total permits. I own a home outside of Detroit and have pulled 9 permits myself in the last 3 years.
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Old 09-05-2023, 08:15 AM
 
Location: Cincinnati
4,479 posts, read 6,232,680 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cbusflyer View Post
I just don't see it, in three years 2020-2022 which is what the OP is quoting, 368 total permits have been pull for the City of Cleveland? That has to be new building permit starts. Not that it really matters but I can't wrap my head around how low these numbers are for total permits. I own a home outside of Detroit and have pulled 9 permits myself in the last 3 years.
I agree the numbers dont make much sense for Cleveland whatsoever. I simply cant explain it as i dont really think its disinvestment....so the points I made on the inconsistincies in the reason permits are pulled, etc, doesnt explain the low numbers for cleveland. In fact, all my argument points to is a margin of error that likely can be quantified to gain a clearer piture on the topic. Of course, perhaps, we need to stop giving so much credence to the government and their stats.

Last edited by TomJones123; 09-05-2023 at 08:44 AM..
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Old 09-05-2023, 11:54 AM
 
204 posts, read 71,733 times
Reputation: 200
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomJones123 View Post
Doesnt matter. I picked on window replacement as an example. Its not all encompassing. Building permits, reasons to pull them, who pulls them, and where is extremely subjective and only shows more permits pulled.....again, if a municipality is more stringent then you get more permits. What your really showing is columbus is making more money off of developent, developers, contractors, and home owners that other areas.
But you're talking about total permits for all reasons, which is not what the numbers were for at all. Cincinnati still requires permits for new construction, which is what the numbers were talking about. So things like renovations, in whatever capacity of degree, are totally irrelevant to the above comparison. I think it would be somewhat difficult- if not impossible- to directly compare units added through renovations because it'd be very difficult to separate renovation permits that only make cosmetic changes to existing units versus those that are creating new ones from non-residential buildings.

Either way, new units through renovations alone would not be a significant percentage of total units in any city or metro.
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Old 09-05-2023, 11:58 AM
 
204 posts, read 71,733 times
Reputation: 200
Quote:
Originally Posted by cbusflyer View Post
I'm no expert in this but wouldn't the numbers be much higher for every metro if it included all the various types of permits you can pull. I don't know the data set that is being used but right away, the numbers look way to low if that includes all permits even if a city doesn't require as many as another city. Thoughts?
That's because the numbers don't include all permits of all kinds, so I'm not sure why Tom is making that association. They're only for permitted new construction and the total units that new construction would create. Measuring permits for things like window replacement, new siding or a deck addition wouldn't have anything to do with that and wouldn't be relevant to a measure on how many total units are being added to a city and metro unless we can somehow prove that those renovations are being done to create new units that didn't exist previously, which would be very hard to do.
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