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I hear this all the time, especially from the St Louis crime apologists.
The way these people talk, you would think the cities in question were small enclaves. St Louis is a city of 62 sqm, with 79 defined neighborhoods, that once held 850K+ people.
Baltimore has 250 defined neighborhoods, and once had a population pushing 1 million.
Pittsburgh, Miami, Boston, San Francisco, DC, Manhattan, Newark, and Buffalo all have similar or greater populations than St Louis in a smaller land area, and none of those cities have anywhere near the homicide rate of St Louis.
The only good side of Baltimore is north Baltimore where the colleges are an even still had a rate of 24. The worst areas arent even the west east or south its the central district. Even the inner harbor, fells point, canton beloved areas have a rate in the 40s. For context even though the city rate is in the 50's none of its districts have a higher rate than SE DC because crime is spread out in Baltimore as the majority of the whole city is bad while DC is extremely concentrated. There is no Baltimore equivalent to NW DC in terms of safety.
I figured this year would still be bad, but I am hoping the incremental decrease will slowly increase as the city continues Covid recovery and hopefully even more after the 2023 Mayoral election.
It seems like most cities are posting increases this year, after the huge spikes in 2020 and 2021.
I hear this all the time, especially from the St Louis crime apologists.
The way these people talk, you would think the cities in question were small enclaves. St Louis is a city of 62 sqm, with 79 defined neighborhoods, that once held 850K+ people.
Baltimore has 250 defined neighborhoods, and once had a population pushing 1 million.
Pittsburgh, Miami, Boston, San Francisco, DC, Manhattan, Newark, and Buffalo all have similar or greater populations than St Louis in a smaller land area, and none of those cities have anywhere near the homicide rate of St Louis.
The biggest thing to remember is the majority of poverty in the St.Louis urbanized area (over 2 million) is in the city (under 300k). The poverty rate for St Louis city 21.8% msa poverty rate is 11.3% NYC 17.9 msa is 12.8%. I hope you can see the difference in how poverty is dispersed throughout the metro. That is why violent crime St Louis msa is moderate on the national scale.
St. Louis isn't in the top 50. The fbi makes it clear city crime comparisons is not a reliable way of identifying personal safety in cities. Too many variables to look at.
There is no "North" Baltimore or "Central District".
"North" Baltimore is a sub-distinction of the northen portions of East/West Baltimore. The city is divided into 3 quadrants. East, West & South and each of those are subdivided into it's ~250 neighborhoods.
West Baltimore accounts for almost 2/3rd of the cities total homicides despite only occupying ~40% of the cities geographic area/population. It's the worst swath of area in the city by farr. Any other answer is wrong on every objective and subjective level.
East Baltimore has almost 100 neighborhoods spread out over 30 sq/mi with almost 300k living in it. The reason it's rate is so high is becuase neighborhoods like O'Donnell Heights, Taylor Heights, Clifton Park indivudally put up as many murders in month as Canton, Fells Point, Brewers Hill, Inner Harbor have in a year combined. Thats the catch 22 of statistical rates, they provide no context in where said homicide/crimes are happening on a micro level.
South Baltimore just kind of "exist" and keeps to itself.
Theres no equivalent to NW DC in Baltimore in terms of safetly just like theres no Baltimore equivelant to Ward 7. They're vastly different cities socialy, socioeconomically and demographically.
The biggest thing to remember is the majority of poverty in the St.Louis urbanized area (over 2 million) is in the city (under 300k). The poverty rate for St Louis city 21.8% msa poverty rate is 11.3% NYC 17.9 msa is 12.8%. I hope you can see the difference in how poverty is dispersed throughout the metro. That is why violent crime St Louis msa is moderate on the national scale.
St. Louis isn't in the top 50. The fbi makes it clear city crime comparisons is not a reliable way of identifying personal safety in cities. Too many variables to look at.
If we're comparing city limits, then I don't see how it could be wrong to say Baltimore CITY or STL the CITY is worse than any particular city because of a higher rate... because it's factual that within the given city that we're discussing, the higher rates of crime and poverty have a more pronounced effect than one with lower such rates.. bringing MSA into this twist the topic when it's the city limits that being discussed... is it wrong to say Baltimore CITY is more dangerous than NYC?
If we're comparing city limits, then I don't see how it could be wrong to say Baltimore CITY or STL the CITY is worse than any particular city because of a higher rate... because it's factual that within the given city that we're discussing, the higher rates of crime and poverty have a more pronounced effect than one with lower such rates.. bringing MSA into this twist the topic when it's the city limits that being discussed... is it wrong to say Baltimore CITY is more dangerous than NYC?
Honestly I don't know. I've visited both cities and had a great time. Didn't really think about crime while there.
Some cities do a good job of moving poverty into unincorporated areas of the city or moving people outside of the city. Other cities change how they record crime and not count every homicide.
I do believe it's important to consider the context while doing a comparison not just writing or saying what stats tell you.
Honestly I don't know. I've visited both cities and had a great time. Didn't really think about crime while there.
Some cities do a good job of moving poverty into unincorporated areas of the city or moving people outside of the city. Other cities change how they record crime and not count every homicide.
I do believe it's important to consider the context while doing a comparison not just writing or saying what stats tell you.
I agree. Context behind the numbers matter.
I don’t see a reason why anyone with a brain would fear being gunned down in either city when more than Half of shootings are targeted stemming from street beef or drugs.
I also agree with your earlier post that MSA crime statistics paint a more accurate picture for Smaller sized cities
It seems like most cities are posting increases this year, after the huge spikes in 2020 and 2021.
Shootings are slightly up, but homicides are down in Philadelphia.
That’s why I like looking at aggravated assault or shooting numbers instead of solely focusing on homicides.
City A with 1 fatal shooting and 100 non fatal shootings would look “safer” on paper compared to City B with 10 fatal shootings and 20 non fatal shootings.
Honestly I don't know. I've visited both cities and had a great time. Didn't really think about crime while there.
Some cities do a good job of moving poverty into unincorporated areas of the city or moving people outside of the city. Other cities change how they record crime and not count every homicide.
I do believe it's important to consider the context while doing a comparison not just writing or saying what stats tell you.
That's good you had a good time, that's how it supposed to be... but like always you just have to stay aware of your surroundings because IMO everywhere is dangerous.. you don't know what's on peoples minds, especially in this climate we're now living in, so I say be safe. In california in the streets, we say stay dangerous, but I tell them no stay safe like 2008
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