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Boston hasnt had many homicides but there been a huge uptick in shootings and shot fired since corona. Ny other cities experiencing this? Theres a shooting like every other hour right now...
No problem. The following census tracts in Baltimore form a continuous geographic area starting just north/northwest of downtown and extending west and north.
For the record, the top census tract for homicide in 2019 in Chicago (Census Tract 231500 in Cook County, Illinois) had 9 homicides. Baltimore has a tract with 10 and 1 with 9. The tract in Chicago with the most homicides is 0.39 sq mi. The one with the most homicides in Baltimore, which had 1 more than the Chicago one, is in 0.15 sq mi.
Baltimore had around 350 homicides in 2019 in a city with a land area of about 81 sq mi. Do we really think that there could possibly be no areas of 3 sq mi with 60 homicides?
No problem. The following census tracts in Baltimore form a continuous geographic area starting just north/northwest of downtown and extending west and north.
For the record, the top census tract for homicide in 2019 in Chicago (Census Tract 231500 in Cook County, Illinois) had 9 homicides. Baltimore has a tract with 10 and 1 with 9. The tract in Chicago with the most homicides is 0.39 sq mi. The one with the most homicides in Baltimore, which had 1 more than the Chicago one, is in 0.15 sq mi.
Baltimore had around 350 homicides in 2019 in a city with a land area of about 81 sq mi. Do we really think that there could possibly be no areas of 3 sq mi with 60 homicides?
Homicides in 2019 are way down from typical bad years in Chicago. Like I've said time and time again, Chicago's worst hoods are as bad as anywhere in the nation. Numbers are skewed because you have huge areas in the city with low rates. St. Louis or Baltimore's hoods aren't any worse than Garfield Park, Englewood or areas in Austin etc. just because the city-wide rates are higher. Certain neighborhoods have had rates of 160-180+ per 100K which is as high as you are going to get in non war zone developed nations. People look at Chicago like it's sweet when if you attached the north side of Chicago to Baltimore it would have the same impact on the raw totals. In 2016 West Garfield Park had 31 homicides for a rate of 182.3. That's as bad as any cherry picked areas in St. Louis or Baltimore.
Last edited by IronWright; 04-03-2020 at 01:15 PM..
Homicides in 2019 are way down from typical bad years in Chicago. Like I've said time and time again, Chicago's worst hoods are as bad as anywhere in the nation. Numbers are skewed because you have huge areas in the city with low rates. St. Louis or Baltimore's hoods aren't any worse than Garfield Park, Englewood or areas in Austin etc. just because the city-wide rates are higher. Certain neighborhoods have had rates of 160-180+ per 100K which is as high as you are going to get in non war zone developed nations. People look at Chicago like it's sweet when if you attached the north side of Chicago to Baltimore it would have the same impact on the raw totals. In 2016 West Garfield Park had 31 homicides for a rate of 182.3. That's as bad as any cherry picked areas in St. Louis or Baltimore.
Every city has good areas that lower the murder rate as a whole. I don't know anybody that think Chicago is sweet but even on Chicago's bad years like 2016 the murder rates of Baltimore and St. Louis are still double that unfortunately. All 3 cities pretty much have some worst case scenario neighborhoods that are some of the roughest in the country though. That first area he listed in Baltimore has a population of 2,525 with 10 murders.
Like I've said time and time again, Chicago's worst hoods are as bad as anywhere in the nation. Numbers are skewed because you have huge areas in the city with low rates. St. Louis or Baltimore's hoods aren't any worse than Garfield Park, Englewood or areas in Austin etc.
Except I never said otherwise in my post. But nice straw man. Anybody with half a brain knows this and my response had nothing to do with it.
Your entire message I responded to was you confident that there's no 3 sq mi areas in Baltimore possibly with 60 homicides. You were proven wrong - yes there are those areas in Baltimore. And before you say "but there's only 1" - no, I stopped after I found that one to post it and didn't go back to look for any others. Just because I responded to you after you were so confident that nothing in Baltimore exists like that doesn't mean in any way I am trying to say Chicago is better in its WORST areas. That is a huge fallacy of logic if I've ever seen one. But nice try.
Quote:
Originally Posted by IronWright
Homicides in 2019 are way down from typical bad years in Chicago.
Except not. Except for the fact that 2019 was fairly in line with an average year from the last 16 years except for 2016 and 2017.
Excluding 2016 and 2017, the total homicides in Chicago for 2019 was 4th highest total number of homicides from 2004 to 2019. The average number of homicides between 2004 and 2019 excluding 2016 and 2017 was 467 meaning that 2019 was higher than the average. And if you include the crazy spike years of 2016 and 2017, then the average is 498 - a whole 6 homicides lower in 2019 than the average.
Statistically, almost all of these years are within the same range of totals except 2016 and 2017. No, 2019 is not any lower than most years between 2014 and 2019. It's actually higher than most years.
Quote:
just because the city-wide rates are higher. Certain neighborhoods have had rates of 160-180+ per 100K which is as high as you are going to get in non war zone developed nations. People look at Chicago like it's sweet when if you attached the north side of Chicago to Baltimore it would have the same impact on the raw totals. In 2016 West Garfield Park had 31 homicides for a rate of 182.3. That's as bad as any cherry picked areas in St. Louis or Baltimore.
The only place with that high of a homicide rate is Fuller Park, because it only has 2320 residents. It helps to have the actual data in front of you instead of just taking stabs in the dark. Fuller Park is the population of 1 census tract though (which is what Fuller Park is). I mean if you're going to play that game then realize that Baltimore's highest homicide tract with 10 has almost the same exact population as Fuller Park but its rate is 429 homicides per 100K people.
The reality is that there's only 1 real neighborhood in 2019 in Chicago with over 100 per 100K which is West Garfield Park. The homicide rate of Baltimore last year was about 58 per 100K. Of the 77 community areas of Chicago in 2019, 67 of them had a lower homicide rate than Baltimore. Austin, the area of Chicago with the most homicides, had a rate last year of 56.98 per 100K which is about the same as the entirety of Baltimore but very slightly lower.
The funny part though is that the areas of Chicago that add up closest to Baltimore with the most homicides (not geographically continuous) is about the same as Baltimore even including Baltimore's good areas. Baltimore has an estimated population of 602K and last year there were 348 homicides (57.8 per 100K).
The following areas of Chicago add up to 596,047 with 330 homicides in 2019 or a rate of 55.4 per 100K:
Austin, Roseland, Humboldt Park, Greater Grand Crossing, West Garfield Park, North Lawndale, South Shore, Englewood, West Englewood, Auburn Gresham, East Garfield Park, Chicago Lawn, South Chicgao, and South Lawndale
In other words, the absolute highest homicide areas of Chicago added up closest to population of Baltimore are very similar, but still 2.5 per 100K lower than Baltimore. And that's including Baltimore's low crime areas.
Last edited by marothisu; 04-03-2020 at 03:51 PM..
Except I never said otherwise in my post. But nice straw man. Anybody with half a brain knows this and my response had nothing to do with it.
Your entire message I responded to was you confident that there's no 3 sq mi areas in Baltimore possibly with 60 homicides. You were proven wrong - yes there are those areas in Baltimore. And before you say "but there's only 1" - no, I stopped after I found that one to post it and didn't go back to look for any others. Just because I responded to you after you were so confident that nothing in Baltimore exists like that doesn't mean in any way I am trying to say Chicago is better in its WORST areas. That is a huge fallacy of logic if I've ever seen one. But nice try.
Except not. Except for the fact that 2019 was fairly in line with an average year from the last 16 years except for 2016 and 2017.
Excluding 2016 and 2017, the total homicides in Chicago for 2019 was 4th highest total number of homicides from 2004 to 2019. The average number of homicides between 2004 and 2019 excluding 2016 and 2017 was 467 meaning that 2019 was higher than the average. And if you include the crazy spike years of 2016 and 2017, then the average is 498 - a whole 6 homicides lower in 2019 than the average.
Statistically, almost all of these years are within the same range of totals except 2016 and 2017. No, 2019 is not any lower than most years between 2014 and 2019. It's actually higher than most years.
The only place with that high of a homicide rate is Fuller Park, because it only has 2320 residents. It helps to have the actual data in front of you instead of just taking stabs in the dark. Fuller Park is the population of 1 census tract though (which is what Fuller Park is). I mean if you're going to play that game then realize that Baltimore's highest homicide tract with 10 has almost the same exact population as Fuller Park but its rate is 429 homicides per 100K people.
The reality is that there's only 1 real neighborhood in 2019 in Chicago with over 100 per 100K which is West Garfield Park. The homicide rate of Baltimore last year was about 58 per 100K. Of the 77 community areas of Chicago in 2019, 67 of them had a lower homicide rate than Baltimore. Austin, the area of Chicago with the most homicides, had a rate last year of 56.98 per 100K which is about the same as the entirety of Baltimore but very slightly lower.
The funny part though is that the areas of Chicago that add up closest to Baltimore with the most homicides (not geographically continuous) is about the same as Baltimore even including Baltimore's good areas. Baltimore has an estimated population of 602K and last year there were 348 homicides (57.8 per 100K).
The following areas of Chicago add up to 596,047 with 330 homicides in 2019 or a rate of 55.4 per 100K:
Austin, Roseland, Humboldt Park, Greater Grand Crossing, West Garfield Park, North Lawndale, South Shore, Englewood, West Englewood, Auburn Gresham, East Garfield Park, Chicago Lawn, South Chicgao, and South Lawndale
In other words, the absolute highest homicide areas of Chicago added up closest to population of Baltimore are very similar, but still 2.5 per 100K lower than Baltimore. And that's including Baltimore's low crime areas.
If I were to be honest both are warzones, only most of the homicides are on the southside and the westside, meanwhile homicides are all throughout Baltimore. Just my 2 cents
If I were to be honest both are warzones, only most of the homicides are on the southside and the westside, meanwhile homicides are all throughout Baltimore. Just my 2 cents
Yes, it's way more prevalent in Baltimore than Chicago if you're talking about the entire cities. I did this research for the 2019 thread and it's in there if you look at it, but I'll re-iterate it here. This is how I had that data readily available so fast in a response last night about 3 sq mi area.
Percentage of People Living in Census Tracts With 0 Homicides for 2019
Los Angeles: 79.7%
Louisville: 64.1% Chicago: 64%
Jacksonville: 59.4%
Indianapolis: 58.1%
Washington DC: 56.6%
Richmond, VA: 47.2%
Detroit: 46.6%
Memphis: 46.4% St. Louis: 45.5%
Baltimore: 36.4%
Baton Rouge, LA: 15.8%
Jackson, MS: 13.3%
Percentage of People Living in Census Tracts With 3+ Homicides per tract for 2019
Los Angeles: 1.5%
Louisville: 4%
Jacksonville: 4.8%
Indianapolis: 6.4% Chicago: 8%
Memphis: 9.1%
Detroit: 9.9%
Washington DC: 13.5%
Richmond, VA: 17.8%
Baton Rouge, LA: 21.6%
Jackson, MS: 23.9% St. Louis: 26.8%
Baltimore: 30.5%
Percentage of People Living in Census Tracts With 5+ Homicides per tract for 2019
Jackson, MS: 0%
Los Angeles: 0.33%
Detroit: 0.44%
Jacksonville: 0.52%
Indianapolis: 0.73%
Louisville: 0.81% Chicago: 1.3%
Memphis: 1.5%
Washington DC: 2.9%
Richmond, VA: 4.3% Baltimore: 7.2%
Baton Rouge, LA: 9% St. Louis: 12.1%
Percentage of People Living in Census Tracts With 7+ Homicides per tract for 2019
Louisville: 0%
Indianapolis: 0%
Jacksonville: 0%
Detroit: 0%
Los Angeles: 0%
Jackson, MS: 0%
Richmond, VA: 0%
Memphis: 0%
Chicago: 0.37%
Washington DC: 0.73%
Baton Rouge: 1.3% Baltimore: 3.97%
St. Louis: 4.5%
Now, the highest crime parts of Chicago are similar to that of Baltimore as far as homicides go. I don't think there's any denying that. Except that's all of the highest crime parts for Chicago but just the entirety of Baltimore counting all the low crime areas too. Just think about that. The absolute highest homicide areas of Chicago of about 600K population (almost same as Baltimore) has a slightly lower homicide rate than the entirety of Baltimore even counting the low crime areas of Baltimore.
The percentages above don't lie. 30.5% of the population of Baltimore lived in census tracts with 3+ homicides last year per tract. It's 8% in Chicago - that's a huge difference if you're comparing 1 city versus the other. 64% of the population of Chicago lives in tracts without a single homicide in 2019 - but in Baltimore it was only 36%. Huge difference.
In no way is it saying that the worst parts of Chicago aren't as bad as the worst parts of Baltimore. But it's completely BS to make an example of Chicago as an entire city when a huge chunk of the city doesn't have this problem. It's a sizable, but small, fraction. And for the record - yeah the west side is pretty bad. The south side however has numerous areas where there isn't a murder problem.
Last edited by marothisu; 04-03-2020 at 08:08 PM..
Yes, it's way more prevalent in Baltimore than Chicago if you're talking about the entire cities. I did this research for the 2019 thread and it's in there if you look at it, but I'll re-iterate it here. This is how I had that data readily available so fast in a response last night about 3 sq mi area.
Percentage of People Living in Census Tracts With 0 Homicides for 2019
Los Angeles: 79.7%
Louisville: 64.1% Chicago: 64%
Jacksonville: 59.4%
Indianapolis: 58.1%
Washington DC: 56.6%
Richmond, VA: 47.2%
Detroit: 46.6%
Memphis: 46.4% St. Louis: 45.5%
Baltimore: 36.4%
Baton Rouge, LA: 15.8%
Jackson, MS: 13.3%
Percentage of People Living in Census Tracts With 3+ Homicides per tract for 2019
Los Angeles: 1.5%
Louisville: 4%
Jacksonville: 4.8%
Indianapolis: 6.4% Chicago: 8%
Memphis: 9.1%
Detroit: 9.9%
Washington DC: 13.5%
Richmond, VA: 17.8%
Baton Rouge, LA: 21.6%
Jackson, MS: 23.9% St. Louis: 26.8%
Baltimore: 30.5%
Percentage of People Living in Census Tracts With 5+ Homicides per tract for 2019
Jackson, MS: 0%
Los Angeles: 0.33%
Detroit: 0.44%
Jacksonville: 0.52%
Indianapolis: 0.73%
Louisville: 0.81% Chicago: 1.3%
Memphis: 1.5%
Washington DC: 2.9%
Richmond, VA: 4.3% Baltimore: 7.2%
Baton Rouge, LA: 9% St. Louis: 12.1%
Percentage of People Living in Census Tracts With 7+ Homicides per tract for 2019
Louisville: 0%
Indianapolis: 0%
Jacksonville: 0%
Detroit: 0%
Los Angeles: 0%
Jackson, MS: 0%
Richmond, VA: 0%
Memphis: 0%
Chicago: 0.37%
Washington DC: 0.73%
Baton Rouge: 1.3% Baltimore: 3.97%
St. Louis: 4.5%
Now, the highest crime parts of Chicago are similar to that of Baltimore as far as homicides go. I don't think there's any denying that. Except that's all of the highest crime parts for Chicago but just the entirety of Baltimore counting all the low crime areas too. Just think about that. The absolute highest homicide areas of Chicago of about 600K population (almost same as Baltimore) has a slightly lower homicide rate than the entirety of Baltimore even counting the low crime areas of Baltimore.
The percentages above don't lie. 30.5% of the population of Baltimore lived in census tracts with 3+ homicides last year per tract. It's 8% in Chicago - that's a huge difference if you're comparing 1 city versus the other. 64% of the population of Chicago lives in tracts without a single homicide in 2019 - but in Baltimore it was only 36%. Huge difference.
In no way is it saying that the worst parts of Chicago aren't as bad as the worst parts of Baltimore. But it's completely BS to make an example of Chicago as an entire city when a huge chunk of the city doesn't have this problem. It's a sizable, but small, fraction. And for the record - yeah the west side is pretty bad. The south side however has numerous areas where there isn't a murder problem.
Judging from the list, Baltimore/St.Louis/Baton Rogue and Jackson are pretty consistent on that list. Sheesh
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