Coronavirus (Los Angeles, Stanford: hotels, buying, high school)

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by wac_432

The way the article was written makes it unclear. Generally medical professionals don't extrapolate what they see (they obviously don't see the 88% of undiagnosed covid cases), since they don't have any information on what is going on with those people.

Read up on COVID long haulers, wac. Some of these people developed these symptoms MONTHS ago, before tests were readily available.

When I spoke with LeClerc on day 66, she was still experiencing waves of symptoms. “Before this, I was a fit, healthy 32-year-old,” she said. “Now I’ve been reduced to not being able to stand up in the shower without feeling fatigued. I’ve tried going to the supermarket and I’m in bed for days afterwards. It’s like nothing I’ve ever experienced before.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...months/612679/

Kayla Brim laughed when she learned it could take 10 days to get her COVID-19 test results back. “I thought, ‘Okay, well, within 10 days I should be fine,’” she remembers.

That was on July 2. More than a month later, Brim is still far from fine.Prior to the pandemic, the 28-year-old from Caldwell, Idaho....

https://time.com/5880191/long-haul-covid-19/

It's been five months since Lucy Gahan contracted Covid-19, and her life still hasn't returned to normal.

Gahan, a clinical psychologist in Shrewsbury, United Kingdom, hasn't been able to return to work.

The disease causes what she calls "storms," disabling periods when she feels shortness of breath, numbness in her hands and feet and her heart rate shoots up from simple tasks. Even taking a shower is possible only during an occasional respite in symptoms.

"In May and June, I could barely talk because I was so ill," she said.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/healt...ess/index.html

[2sleepy]

Originally Posted by sav858

'People are desperate': California shutdown pushes businesses to breaking point

"State data released in August showed that close to half of all California small businesses were at risk of shutting down because of the pandemic. Minority-owned establishments were disproportionately affected, the survey concluded, with the number of businesses owned by African Americans dropping by 41%, Latino-owned businesses by 32%, and Asian-owned businesses by 25%. Roughly 36% of immigrant-owned businesses also went under."

"An analysis by the National Restaurant Association provided to the Guardian this week predicted 43% of California restaurants would not survive the crisis."

With the increase in cases in Sacramento County no one who I've spoken to is advocating for restaurants to reopen, so as sad as it is - if they are going to close they will regardless of the restrictions currently in place

[joosoon]

Anybody else wonder what precisely Newsom's Scientific Safety Review Group did to approve the vaccine for the western states pact that was formed? It sounds like they had a few zoom meetings to discuss Pfizer's and FDA's findings. That's it... (someone please correct me if I'm wrong). So what exactly was the point of all this??


Aside from that, here's an excerpt from their conclusions:"The Workgroup noted that many important unknowns regarding the effects of Pfizer BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine remain, including the duration of vaccine-induced protection; the effect of vaccination on asymptomatic infection; the effect of vaccination on transmission of SARS-CoV-2; and the safety and efficacy of the Pfizer BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine in pregnant women and children under 16 years of age."

Further, this: "At the same time, we acknowledge that it will be critical for the manufacturer, the FDA, and the CDC to continue to carefully monitor and study the performance of the Pfizer BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine (i.e., its safety and efficacy) in various subgroups of the population over time. Ongoing monitoring of the efficacy and safety of the Pfizer BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine in diverse subgroups of the population, especially by race, ethnicity, age, and underlying disease status, will be crucial to ensuring confidence in and high uptake of the vaccine by a majority of residents in our states."

For those who defended this overtly political move, can you please explain why any of this was necessary? Aren't they just stating the obvious that any one of us could've concluded? In a twist of total irony, their last recommendation is to avoid any "undue delay" in administering the vaccine too.

[goodheathen]

Originally Posted by wac_432

The way the article was written makes it unclear. Generally medical professionals don't extrapolate what they see (they obviously don't see the 88% of undiagnosed covid cases), since they don't have any information on what is going on with those people. Also, the article was written in September, before the CDC serosurveys pointed to 8X more infections than what was being detected.

I want numbers of any kind. Since the USA has given up and is going to be 70-80% infected long before enough vaccine is manufactured, I'd like to know if long term covid damage is significant, is another chicken little moment, or is being downplayed.

I'd like to know the % chance of a meaningful reduction in QOL. So far, all I see are articles about thousands of facebook users or personal anecdotes and that's not really helpful.

Also, if you think that killing or making invalids of 0.5-0.6% of the population in less than 12 months is somehow acceptable or downplayed, yeesh. This virus is a disaster. It is unhelpful to inflate or downplay it.

I was warning about a percentage affected like that months ago.

Also, lack of formal diagnosis of infection doesn't prevent detection of long-COVID cases, if the symptoms fit into a syndrome, and some of those people will test positive for antibodies.

I don't "chicken little" into thinking most people will catch COVID-19 by the spring of next year. That, though, probably would be better in the long run than a more plausible 30% or so, because majority would mean some herd immunity.

[sav858]

Originally Posted by 2sleepy

With the increase in cases in Sacramento County no one who I've spoken to is advocating for restaurants to reopen, so as sad as it is - if they are going to close they will regardless of the restrictions currently in place

What makes you think that? A lot of them have said they can't make a profit with just takeout but can survive with just outdoor dining.

Went to a restaurant in Danville on Saturday defying the current restriction, patio was pretty much full.

[2sleepy]

Originally Posted by sav858

What makes you think that? A lot of them have said they can't make a profit with just takeout but can survive with just outdoor dining.

Went to a restaurant in Danville on Saturday defying the current restriction, patio was pretty much full.

It's been cold here, the restaurants that had outdoor eating were mostly empty since early November. Some of them were in a tent enclosed on all 4 sides which we (and from appearances most other people too) avoided because that concept seemed less safe than eating inside a well ventilated restaurants. Reopening them is not going to save their business. We still do what we can as much as I dislike takeout we get it a couple of times a week just to try to help some of our favorite restaurants stay in business.

We ate at outdoors at a sushi place last week, we thought it might be comfortable because the outdoor dining is covered by a roof and has buildings on both sides, we were the only ones eating there on a Saturday night and we were so cold that we got take away boxes and finished our dinner at home. We're hard core foodies, we love to eat out, it's the only thing we really splurge on but eating outside is not fun when it's cold and windy. So for now we are looking ahead to getting the vaccine and flying to Miami or Mexico and spending two or three weeks eating outdoors in 80 degree weather, we might need extra large seatbelts on the flight home but what the heck you only live once, right?

[sav858]

Originally Posted by 2sleepy

It's been cold here, the restaurants that had outdoor eating were mostly empty since early November. Some of them were in a tent enclosed on all 4 sides which we (and from appearances most other people too) avoided because that concept seemed less safe than eating inside a well ventilated restaurants. Reopening them is not going to save their business. We still do what we can as much as I dislike takeout we get it a couple of times a week just to try to help some of our favorite restaurants stay in business.

We ate at outdoors at a sushi place last week, we thought it might be comfortable because the outdoor dining is covered by a roof and has buildings on both sides, we were the only ones eating there on a Saturday night and we were so cold that we got take away boxes and finished our dinner at home. We're hard core foodies, we love to eat out, it's the only thing we really splurge on but eating outside is not fun when it's cold and windy. So for now we are looking ahead to getting the vaccine and flying to Miami or Mexico and spending two or three weeks eating outdoors in 80 degree weather, we might need extra large seatbelts on the flight home but what the heck you only live once, right?

Well that's definitely not like it's been in my area at all (Concord, Pleasant Hill, Walnut Creek). Outdoor dining during weekend days was pretty filled and good crowds at night too since most places have space heaters. Almost all of November was dry and mild, surprised so few were eating outdoors there.

[2sleepy]

Originally Posted by sav858

Well that's definitely not like it's been in my area at all (Concord, Pleasant Hill, Walnut Creek). Outdoor dining during weekend days was pretty filled and good crowds at night too since most places have space heaters. Almost all of November was dry and mild, surprised so few were eating outdoors there.

Like most things in life people have a different view of what constitutes mild weather. A few restaurants had propane heaters but definitely not most of them. Here's the temperatures for Sacramento for last month, https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/...h=11&year=2020

And here's the same data for Concord for November https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/concord-ca/historic

I can eat outside when it's 50 but when it's colder than that I'd rather stay home and eat.

[wac_432]

Originally Posted by goodheathen

I was warning about a percentage affected like that months ago.

Also, lack of formal diagnosis of infection doesn't prevent detection of long-COVID cases, if the symptoms fit into a syndrome, and some of those people will test positive for antibodies.

I don't "chicken little" into thinking most people will catch COVID-19 by the spring of next year. That, though, probably would be better in the long run than a more plausible 30% or so, because majority would mean some herd immunity.

I hate to break it to you, but 1.6 million CA cases X 8 = 12.4M / 40M = 32% of CA already infected by the CDC's estimate. At 30K cases per day X 8 , the remainder of CA will be infected in 3 months.

Of course, it doesn't actually work that way. More likely detected infections will peak at 30-35K per day for about 10 days, then slowly decline over the next 2 months, fading to summer levels by the end of February as the virus struggles to find hosts with > 60% of the population already infected.

Then again, I've said that about every other wave, so you could be right and I could be wrong. Only time will tell.

Since I can't afford to remain in Taiwan, I fully expect to get infected from the dingbats at my workplace (despite the fact I wear a mask 100% of the time) who do dumb stuff like having visitors, going out to eat with friends, or retail shopping indoors.

Which is why I have a big life insurance policy and pay extra for extra disability insurance.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by wac_432

the USA has given up and is going to be 70-80% infected long before enough vaccine is manufactured

Not sure about that.

https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/