Coronavirus (Sacramento, Concord, Walnut Creek: sushi, propane, ethnicity)

[joosoon]

Originally Posted by roadwarrior101

Isn't mortality a function of spread?

A case that ends in death vs. one that's a recovery isn't different in the scheme of an overall outbreak, right? They're both positive cases. That's all I meant.

[Racer46]

Originally Posted by joosoon

A case that ends in death vs. one that's a recovery isn't different in the scheme of an overall outbreak, right? They're both positive cases. That's all I meant.

Plus many are left with problems from having the virus, so it isn't just a life back to normal or death problem.

[Mike930]

Originally Posted by Racer46

Plus many are left with problems from having the virus, so it isn't just a life back to normal or death problem.

Is that something the doctors are definitely finding or something they’re afraid might happen? I haven’t seen much other than speculation. I know chicken pox can cause shingles later in life.

As far as restrictions, I don’t see much of that being followed by shoppers, but that’s just by me. The San Diego border outlet stores were packed today, although they had blocked off some parking spaces. I waited 20 min to get into a Nike store for Christmas shopping. It looked like 99% mask compliance.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by Racer46

Plus many are left with problems from having the virus, so it isn't just a life back to normal or death problem.

Right.

Long-Term Effects of COVID-19:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...m-effects.html

The hidden long-term cognitive effects of COVID-19:
https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/...-2020100821133

From ‘brain fog’ to heart damage, COVID-19’s lingering problems alarm scientists:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...arm-scientists

Doctors Begin to Crack Covid’s Mysterious Long-Term Effects
Severe fatigue, memory lapses, heart problems affect patients who weren’t that badly hit initially:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/doctors...ts-11604252961

[wac_432]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

Right.

Long-Term Effects of COVID-19:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...m-effects.html

The hidden long-term cognitive effects of COVID-19:
https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/...-2020100821133

From ‘brain fog’ to heart damage, COVID-19’s lingering problems alarm scientists:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...arm-scientists

Doctors Begin to Crack Covid’s Mysterious Long-Term Effects
Severe fatigue, memory lapses, heart problems affect patients who weren’t that badly hit initially:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/doctors...ts-11604252961

If significant lingering effects afflict a large number of people, why don't we have statistics and studies on that? With millions of positive cases it ought to be fairly simple to do a telephone survey of survivors and determine what % make full recoveries and break down the distribution of long-term effects.

Even a news organization ought to have done this by now. The lack of reporting makes me assume that these long term effects do not afflict a non-negligible percentage of survivors.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by wac_432

If significant lingering effects afflict a large number of people, why don't we have statistics and studies on that?

Good question. "Long haulers" started showing up months ago, and a lot of these people are fairly young. If they'd started studies then, we might have some conclusions by now.

As Their Numbers Grow, COVID-19 “Long Haulers” Stump Experts:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2771111

[wac_432]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

Good question. "Long haulers" started showing up months ago, and a lot of these people are fairly young. If they'd started studies then, we might have some conclusions by now.

As Their Numbers Grow, COVID-19 “Long Haulers” Stump Experts:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2771111

Thanks for the reference. The article quotes unnamed "medical experts" estimating that 10% of Covid survivors are long haulers, and 25-30% of those have effects that last beyond 3 months. So that would be 3% of covid survivors. I presume they mean diagnosed/hospitalized patients, which is about 12.5% of all people who contract covid, per the CDC.

So an individual's chance of presently-known long-term effects would be in the 0.3-0.5% range. About double the fatality rate, which would seem to be in the right ballpark for such a serious illness.

[goodheathen]

There's no reason to "presume" "diagnosed/hospitalized patients." It could go well beyond part of that 12.5%. You seem to want to downplay the numbers. A better estimate would be whatever percentage of SARS survivors was not fully recovered after 3 months.

Studies take months. I'm sure some are underway. Anyone could do a telephone survey, but that would not count as medical research and I don't think the media likes to directly be involved in that.

[wac_432]

Originally Posted by goodheathen

There's no reason to "presume" "diagnosed/hospitalized patients." It could go well beyond part of that 12.5%. You seem to want to downplay the numbers. A better estimate would be whatever percentage of SARS survivors was not fully recovered after 3 months.

Studies take months. I'm sure some are underway. Anyone could do a telephone survey, but that would not count as medical research and I don't think the media likes to directly be involved in that.

The way the article was written makes it unclear. Generally medical professionals don't extrapolate what they see (they obviously don't see the 88% of undiagnosed covid cases), since they don't have any information on what is going on with those people. Also, the article was written in September, before the CDC serosurveys pointed to 8X more infections than what was being detected.

I want numbers of any kind. Since the USA has given up and is going to be 70-80% infected long before enough vaccine is manufactured, I'd like to know if long term covid damage is significant, is another chicken little moment, or is being downplayed.

I'd like to know the % chance of a meaningful reduction in QOL. So far, all I see are articles about thousands of facebook users or personal anecdotes and that's not really helpful.

Also, if you think that killing or making invalids of 0.5-0.6% of the population in less than 12 months is somehow acceptable or downplayed, yeesh. This virus is a disaster. It is unhelpful to inflate or downplay it.

[foodyum]

Originally Posted by wac_432

Thanks for the reference. The article quotes unnamed "medical experts" estimating that 10% of Covid survivors are long haulers, and 25-30% of those have effects that last beyond 3 months. So that would be 3% of covid survivors. I presume they mean diagnosed/hospitalized patients, which is about 12.5% of all people who contract covid, per the CDC.

So an individual's chance of presently-known long-term effects would be in the 0.3-0.5% range. About double the fatality rate, which would seem to be in the right ballpark for such a serious illness.

Jamanetwork isn’t exactly the epoch times or oan. It is serious peer review journal. Don’t be so quick to dismiss it.