100+ days in Austin (Houston: price, summer, better)

[buffettjr]

Originally Posted by scm53

We might or might not make it this year - 29 days at Bergstrom, but with no 100+ days forecast for the rest of the month. Average last 100+ day is August 28th.

You're quoting the long term moving averages, but that's the entire point of OP's post; that the long term averages are a total joke. The last 100 degree day is in August? I can't remember that last time that has happened! But I do remember recently seeing a 100 degree day in October. I'd love to live in an Austin that doesn't get any 100 degree days in the insanely hot month of September, but that reality does not exist.

[scm53]

Originally Posted by buffettjr

You're quoting the long term moving averages, but that's the entire point of OP's post; that the long term averages are a total joke. The last 100 degree day is in August? I can't remember that last time that has happened! But I do remember recently seeing a 100 degree day in October. I'd love to live in an Austin that doesn't get any 100 degree days in the insanely hot month of September, but that reality does not exist.

Do you understand the concept of averages? Means 1/2 more, 1/2 less - doesn't mean the limit. As far as "the long term averages are a total joke", the record highs for nine of the thirty days in August were set in the '20s. The record for the most consecutive days > 100 (18) was set in 1925. These things go in cycles. Take the long view

And as far as "I do remember recently seeing a 100 degree day in October" - were you here in 1938? Because that was the year the only 100 degree October day EVER in Austin was recorded on the 2nd.

[Komeht]

100+ days 2012:

June - 6
July - 5
August - 17
September - 7

35 100+ days

So since 2006 we've had 6 years of 100+ days 3X the normal rate or greater and 1 year under.

I would so very very very much like a return to a normal weather pattern where summers here were hot, but tolerably hot.

[Austin97]

Originally Posted by scm53

Do you understand the concept of averages? Means 1/2 more, 1/2 less - doesn't mean the limit. As far as "the long term averages are a total joke", the record highs for nine of the thirty days in August were set in the '20s. The record for the most consecutive days > 100 (18) was set in 1925. These things go in cycles. Take the long view

And as far as "I do remember recently seeing a 100 degree day in October" - were you here in 1938? Because that was the year the only 100 degree October day EVER in Austin was recorded on the 2nd.

Actually 1/2 more 1/2 less is median. The median is probably higher than the average these days. Also average temperature factors in the evenings. It would be more interesting to know the average peak temperature.

Austin Temperature Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
Avg. Temperature 48.8 52.8 61.5 69.6 75.6 81.3 84.5 84.8 80.2 71.1 60.9 51.6 68.6
Avg. Max Temperature 58.9 63.4 71.9 79.4 84.7 91.1 95.0 95.5 90.5 82.1 71.8 62.0 78.9

[scm53]

Originally Posted by Austin97

Actually 1/2 more 1/2 less is median. The median is probably higher than the average these days. Also average temperature factors in the evenings. It would be more interesting to know the average peak temperature.

Austin Temperature Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
Avg. Temperature 48.8 52.8 61.5 69.6 75.6 81.3 84.5 84.8 80.2 71.1 60.9 51.6 68.6
Avg. Max Temperature 58.9 63.4 71.9 79.4 84.7 91.1 95.0 95.5 90.5 82.1 71.8 62.0 78.9

Maybe. But changing the subject to what the average temp is doesn't change the fact that the average last day of 100+ is August 29th.

As far as does "average" equal mean, median or mode, I don't know how you would arrive at a mean - because that would entail adding the days together and dividing by the count. Same thing for mode - what do you count to get most prevalent? I have to believe that they meant median - since you can group days into <100 and >= 100 and put 1/2 here, 1/2 there and see what day is in the middle.

Maybe my tiny brain can't do the math to do a mean.

[Danbo1957]

It's punishingly hot this week, 102 today-- with six more 100 days coming. Then finally the break. On September 10th an expected high of 93 with rain.

[scm53]

It's actually been nice today at my house. Been outside plenty and it hasn't been over 96 - clouds have held the temps down.

[Austin97]

Originally Posted by scm53

Maybe. But changing the subject to what the average temp is doesn't change the fact that the average last day of 100+ is August 29th.

As far as does "average" equal mean, median or mode, I don't know how you would arrive at a mean - because that would entail adding the days together and dividing by the count. Same thing for mode - what do you count to get most prevalent? I have to believe that they meant median - since you can group days into <100 and >= 100 and put 1/2 here, 1/2 there and see what day is in the middle.

Maybe my tiny brain can't do the math to do a mean.

average last day would just mean assigning each day of the year a number then averaging those over many years and figuring out which day that is. It would be interesting to know what the standard deviation is so we could tell how big a change this is from the average. If the standard deviation is 25 days then still having 100 degree days is no big deal.

[EzPeterson]

Does something magical happen at 100 degrees? I'll be honest, 95-102ish feels about the same - why is the number of 100+ days the end-all-be-all of determining how "intolerable" the heat is?

Heck, 95 degrees with 70% humidity is 10 times worse than 103 with 35%, so temp alone is a moot debate point.

This summer seems to have far less nights that are incredibly sticky and hot, which makes them much more enjoyable and -thus, makes this feel like a much cooler summer than years past. And 2007 was wetter/cooler and WAY more Houstonish, and far more intolerable, IMO.

[Komeht]

It's a relative gauge to measure misery. You could pick any number you like - 99, 98, whatever, but at a certain point to low and it becomes meaningless (every summer has 100+ days over 95) and a certain point to high it becomes somewhat random (measuring 105+ would just yield a few random days here and there and not tell you about the general summer). 100 is hot enough that it happens just a handful of days on normal years and low enough that it happens a crapload more than is tolerable on hot years.

Also, if you can't tell the difference between 102 and 95 then congratulations and. . .go see a doctor.