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^ you must be out of your mind to think the city proper can reach 1M people in 20-30 years lol. The infrastructure can't even handle 440,000 people. Supertalls everywhere won't happen, you'll need heavy emphasis on middle housing, transit and upgrading infrastructure, all of which Miami lacks.
The city is going to close in on having 500K people sooner or later, and the city is not just building skyscrapers and condos, but it's also building a lot of multifamily housing. It may seem like an exaggeration for Miami to reach up to a million people in 20-30 years (maybe up to 750 K within 30 years), especially with 20 years, but there's just too much momentum going one right now with people moving from the East Coast and the Midwest, even as far away as CA, to South FL.
Being wedged between the Everglades to the Atlantic Ocean means that South FL has to densify the cities of not just Miami, but Miami Beach, Hialeah, Hollywood, Ft Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach, as well as the smaller suburban cities of Doral, Sweetwater, Kendall, Homestead, Plantation, Pembroke Pines, Miramar, and Boca Raton. South FL has land at a premium and it has to utilize every square ft of land to build more dense developments. You don't need supertalls on every corner in Miami, which isn't what I said, I stated that you need to build mid-rises and spread those around the city, as well as build multifamily housing.
You can't just mow down every plot of land and build a mega mansion just like in metro Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston, you have to treat South FL differently than those areas, and much more similar to how NY, Boston, Philadelphia, and Chicago are treated, which are dense metro areas! The rail, road, and housing infrastructure will follow!
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Originally Posted by MiamiLIFE
Seems achievable...flying taxis and self driving cars will likely be operating in 10 to 15 years and that will address a lot of public transportation issues.
Not a fan of the self driving cars, as I believe that those will create a major hazard, especially if the computer used to control the vehicle goes haywire, but a "flying taxi" seems to be getting real every year:
The city is going to close in on having 500K people sooner or later, and the city is not just building skyscrapers and condos, but it's also building a lot of multifamily housing. It may seem like an exaggeration for Miami to reach up to a million people in 20-30 years (maybe up to 750 K within 30 years), especially with 20 years, but there's just too much momentum going one right now with people moving from the East Coast and the Midwest, even as far away as CA, to South FL.
Being wedged between the Everglades to the Atlantic Ocean means that South FL has to densify the cities of not just Miami, but Miami Beach, Hialeah, Hollywood, Ft Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach, as well as the smaller suburban cities of Doral, Sweetwater, Kendall, Homestead, Plantation, Pembroke Pines, Miramar, and Boca Raton. South FL has land at a premium and it has to utilize every square ft of land to build more dense developments. You don't need supertalls on every corner in Miami, which isn't what I said, I stated that you need to build mid-rises and spread those around the city, as well as build multifamily housing.
You can't just mow down every plot of land and build a mega mansion just like in metro Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston, you have to treat South FL differently than those areas, and much more similar to how NY, Boston, Philadelphia, and Chicago are treated, which are dense metro areas! The rail, road, and housing infrastructure will follow!
Not a fan of the self driving cars, as I believe that those will create a major hazard, especially if the computer used to control the vehicle goes haywire, but a "flying taxi" seems to be getting real every year:
The city proper grew, on average, 4,278 people per year between 2010-2020, between 2020-2022, the average so far has been 3,636. At this pace, if it stays the same, the city will be at 486K by 2030. You're forgetting that a lot of people move out of the city proper as well. So 20-30 years from now, if things stay the same, you're looking at a 550K to 600K range, which is still fantastic density wise considering how small city limits are. However, considering the infrastructure already cannot handle 450K people, it will need serious improvements and upgrades now, or else the city will shoot itself in the foot down the line.
The city proper grew, on average, 4,278 people per year between 2010-2020, between 2020-2022, the average so far has been 3,636. At this pace, if it stays the same, the city will be at 486K by 2030. You're forgetting that a lot of people move out of the city proper as well. So 20-30 years from now, if things stay the same, you're looking at a 550K to 600K range, which is still fantastic density wise considering how small city limits are. However, considering the infrastructure already cannot handle 450K people, it will need serious improvements and upgrades now, or else the city will shoot itself in the foot down the line.
I would say that if the city can grow 10 every year, then that's considered healthy growth. The city of Miami had grown about 10.2% in 2020 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami#Demographics), but Miami-Dade County had grown 8.2%. In 2019, the city of Miami had it's highest population count of 467K by different sources (https://www.google.com/search?q=2019...client=gws-wiz), you can Google it on 2019 population count Miami! I'm actually with you on the infrastructure, especially the water and sewage infrastructure, but that's more under the realm of the county as opposed to the city, since MDC operates and maintains the water and sewage infrastructure while the city seems to be more responsible maintaining and enforcing policies related to housing.
If Miami had grown from 399K to 467K and that was recorded as the official count in 2020, then the city of Miami would've recorded about a 14.5% positive growth instead of the 10.2% recorded in 2020. Also, in 2019, Miami-Dade County was recorded to have about 2,711,612, only for MDC to drop to about 2,701,767. From the 9-year growth rate, it looks like MDC grew about 9.2%, a little better than the 8.2% growth rate recorded back in the 2020 US Census.
We all know that MDC has a very large immigrant population of Cubans, Venezuelans, Colombians, Nicaraguans, Jamaicans, Haitians, Bahamians, Trinidadians, and even some Arabs in and around MDC. I'm willing to wager that some of those immigrants, both legal or undocumented, haven't taken the US census due to either not knowing how it works, never hearing about it, or the fear that immigration authorities will either deport them, their families, or their relatives, and the 2020 pandemic didn't even help MDC's or FL's case, as FL was slated to gain 2 congressional seats in the US House, but that didn't happen. Plus FL has been severely undercounted and if that's the case, then the current figures need to be changed from 22.2 million to about 23 million if the undercount is true (https://news.wfsu.org/state-news/202...20Mississippi.; https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/202...ash-editorial/; https://www.npr.org/2022/05/19/10998...ennessee-texas; https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...-by-state.html; https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politic...ing-u-s-census).
Finally, a revision of the 2020 census would mean that FL's cities would get a bump in population, and that may mean that Miami would either return back to the 467K figure that it had back in 2019 or an even bigger bump of close to 500K or greater. The city of Miami needs to keep the complaints about rising costs (rent, mortgage, utilities, groceries, etc.) in check in order for the city, the county, and the state to grow otherwise it will struggle like NY, Phila, DC, Chicago, and the West Coast when it comes to attracting and retaining human capital.
Last edited by wanderer34; 12-17-2023 at 08:28 PM..
The 467K figure was just a projection, it got revised down in the 2020 census, which makes sense since projections are always overvalued. So a ballpark estimate is the city is between 435K to 449K, depending on sources.
Of course, daytime populations are always higher, so I'm sure there's a source that is able to track that as well, that's another good indicator, imo.
The 467K figure was just a projection, it got revised down in the 2020 census, which makes sense since projections are always overvalued. So a ballpark estimate is the city is between 435K to 449K, depending on sources.
Of course, daytime populations are always higher, so I'm sure there's a source that is able to track that as well, that's another good indicator, imo.
The 439-449K estimate as of 2023 is lower than what the real count of the city of Miami is. Of course, it's impossible to count every single person that resides in Miami, but you can't discount the number of immigrants, migrants, and refugees that constantly come to Miami and Miami-Dade on a daily, if not weekly and monthly basis, which is the problem with the 2020 Census. I get that the cost of living is driving some residents away from Miami, Miami-Dade, and the metro area, but you can't deny that much more people are looking to moving into South FL for differing reasons (better weather, lower costs, low taxes, etc.).
I've already sent links in my last post detailing how the state of FL (and the city of Miami) has been drastically undercounted by over 3% of the recorded population in 2020, which means that about 750K people statewide weren't accounted for. Since the latest trends have seen people move into more urbanized areas throughout the state as well as the country, then that would mean that Miami, as well as other cities great and small statewide, have seen robust growths in their populations.
However the 2020 Census, which has been stunted due to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, as well as Trump's edict of not wanting to count the undocumented in the America Census, was the reason why Miami (and FL's) population was drastically undercounted. Hopefully, the city, the county, and the state can successfully sue the Census Bureau just to get the proper figures to better reflect the respective jurisdictions as well as to get the necessary funding from the federal government needed for those jurisdictions!
3% undercount is the status-quo with census counts, not only in the U.S, but in Canada. So if there's a 3% in one place, that means it's the same elsewhere.
Yes, people are moving in, but net growth has been decreasing in Miami since 2017. Before the pandemic, it was averaging 2-3K per year, a far cry from the 40K average it was once. Yes a lot of people want to move there, but a lot of people are moving out, there's a reason why Miami Dade saw a net loss, while other places in SoFla saw net gains, it's just the reality.
Focusing on migrants, it's hard to track undocumented people, but if we do, then the population losses in NY/Cali will offset, since they're getting more migrants + places in the South are shipping them there, without their consent, Florida included. Last I checked, SoFla has 500K illegal migrants, but that figure is outdated.
3% undercount is the status-quo with census counts, not only in the U.S, but in Canada. So if there's a 3% in one place, that means it's the same elsewhere.
Yes, people are moving in, but net growth has been decreasing in Miami since 2017. Before the pandemic, it was averaging 2-3K per year, a far cry from the 40K average it was once. Yes a lot of people want to move there, but a lot of people are moving out, there's a reason why Miami Dade saw a net loss, while other places in SoFla saw net gains, it's just the reality.
The city of Miami gaining 40K is an exaggeration and if that really happened, then Miami would've already been about a million people within it's city limits already!!! Gaining 2-3K people/year isn't a bad figure, albeit a little lower if Miami wants to maintain 10% growth. Either way, Miami (and the rest of FL) is gaining population, and the city of Miami and Miami-Dade County needs to foster more policies to enable that it has more smart growth in the near and distant future such as building more multifamily and affordable housing and expanding it's mass transit system.
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Originally Posted by CXT2000
Focusing on migrants, it's hard to track undocumented people, but if we do, then the population losses in NY/Cali will offset, since they're getting more migrants + places in the South are shipping them there, without their consent, Florida included. Last I checked, SoFla has 500K illegal migrants, but that figure is outdated.
Cali isn't growing like it once was from the 1920's to about over a decade ago. Many more people are leaving Cali than trying to come into Cali, even with Cali having the largest undocumented population in America. NY, after reaching the highest population figure in it's history, is starting to decline due to higher taxes, higher rents, higher insurance fees, and high crime.
You can't even raise a family like you once was able to in NY anymore, and I figured this out when I was in my early 20's. Too many alternative lifestyles have taken over the traditional ones and I believe it's a deterrent as to why people from NY would rather move to the South and start anew as opposed to continue in NY's rat race. FL is the future, whether it be in Miami, Orlando, Tampa, or even Jacksonville!!!
The city of Miami gaining 40K is an exaggeration and if that really happened, then Miami would've already been about a million people within it's city limits already!!! Gaining 2-3K people/year isn't a bad figure, albeit a little lower if Miami wants to maintain 10% growth. Either way, Miami (and the rest of FL) is gaining population, and the city of Miami and Miami-Dade County needs to foster more policies to enable that it has more smart growth in the near and distant future such as building more multifamily and affordable housing and expanding it's mass transit system.
Cali isn't growing like it once was from the 1920's to about over a decade ago. Many more people are leaving Cali than trying to come into Cali, even with Cali having the largest undocumented population in America. NY, after reaching the highest population figure in it's history, is starting to decline due to higher taxes, higher rents, higher insurance fees, and high crime.
You can't even raise a family like you once was able to in NY anymore, and I figured this out when I was in my early 20's. Too many alternative lifestyles have taken over the traditional ones and I believe it's a deterrent as to why people from NY would rather move to the South and start anew as opposed to continue in NY's rat race. FL is the future, whether it be in Miami, Orlando, Tampa, or even Jacksonville!!!
The city of Miami gaining 40K is an exaggeration and if that really happened, then Miami would've already been about a million people within it's city limits already!!! Gaining 2-3K people/year isn't a bad figure, albeit a little lower if Miami wants to maintain 10% growth. Either way, Miami (and the rest of FL) is gaining population, and the city of Miami and Miami-Dade County needs to foster more policies to enable that it has more smart growth in the near and distant future such as building more multifamily and affordable housing and expanding it's mass transit system.
Cali isn't growing like it once was from the 1920's to about over a decade ago. Many more people are leaving Cali than trying to come into Cali, even with Cali having the largest undocumented population in America. NY, after reaching the highest population figure in it's history, is starting to decline due to higher taxes, higher rents, higher insurance fees, and high crime.
You can't even raise a family like you once was able to in NY anymore, and I figured this out when I was in my early 20's. Too many alternative lifestyles have taken over the traditional ones and I believe it's a deterrent as to why people from NY would rather move to the South and start anew as opposed to continue in NY's rat race. FL is the future, whether it be in Miami, Orlando, Tampa, or even Jacksonville!!!
NY also offering great housing options for the poor as well.
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