Miami Inflation Ranks Highest in US (Jacksonville, Tampa: high crime, homes, luxury)

[MiamiLIFE]

Originally Posted by gixxer1000

That is the City of Miami. Take a look at the city limits on a map. They are arbitray and singling out just the city makes no sense for a metropolatin area.

The poverty rate for Miami (the entire county) is 15.7%. I agree it is higher than the national average but it has ALWAYS been this way. The gap between the national aveage and Miami is DECREASING as again the rate is goind down not up.

You are not stating facts. Again you said the poverty rate is going up when its going down. So please explain how the poverty rate going down (FACT) is a bad thing.

I think it going down is a good thing and a natural consequence of the city maturing. All the people that bash Miami don't want to give the city the same time that NY or Chicago have had to mature. Miami is a young city by comparison. But, she's growing up nicely.

[gixxer1000]

Originally Posted by MiamiLIFE

The rental stock coming online in Miami is going to bring some rent relief as Miami will a bit oversupplied with these deliveries hitting around the same time. There will be some decent rental deals to be had in Wynwood with free rent being offered. The condo side I think is a bit different as most of the stock being delivered is luxury product and won't provide much relief to home buyers. However, I do see some signs that home prices are dipping a bit; not a lot. Mostly for the commodity product.

When you say home prices I would differentiate between rentals/condos/townhomes and single family homes.

I agree most the supply is on the rental side as that was easiest to develop over the last 10 years. Construction prices skyrocketed and at first rents went up with them. Rents then hit a ceiling and now all the momentum has shifted to condos. I also agree most of the condos being built are on the high end side but but as the volume starts to pick up there will be a bit of downwar pressure. See chart below as the months supply has now gone over 6 which usually signals a buyers market.




However on the signle family side its a different landscape. There simply isn't any locations to build any meaningful amount of houses. And as we build more rentals/condos we end up reducing houses in the process. Edgewater is an example of this where they are literally replacing single family homes with 60 story condos. Barring some macro level shift in the market I don't see house prices going down much if at all.

[gixxer1000]

Originally Posted by MiamiLIFE

I think it going down is a good thing and a natural consequence of the city maturing. All the people that bash Miami don't want to give the city the same time that NY or Chicago have had to mature. Miami is a young city by comparison. But, she's growing up nicely.

Agreed. NY for example has had a net migration loss pretty much going back to the 70's. It has only grown through international immigration and more briths than deaths. It has always been expensive. However the people replacing the people leaving made just as much or more and as the density grew people are willing to sacrafice and live in smaller more outdated accomodations in exchange for the amenities of the city.

If Miami follows this "mass exedous" pattern over the next 50 years I think most of us here would consider that a win as it would be constant growth over our entire lifetime.

And its worth pointing out the cities losing people rapidly now like NYC and SF aren't losing those people just becuase of affordability. Again, the people were willing to put up with that unafordability for decades. It has been the insance policies that have lead to higher crime and a decrease in quality of life.

The thing Miami has that NY and SF doesn't is land. We can simply build hundreds of towers is prime locations. So for the forseeable future Miami will always be a relative bargain compared to the larger cities.

[nidex]

The secret is certainly out with Miami and the cost, vs. what you get in terms of lifestyle. It started getting crazy late 2020, early 2021, and I doubt it will die off any time soon.

The only thing that Miami doesn't have is a strong local economy that pays well. This just means you have to make your money in other cities and eventually go there. It'll become an American/Latin American Dubai.

I'm also interested to see the effect that the laws regarding foreign nationals buying property have on the city. I feel like half of the high rise condos sit empty because they're just places to park money.

[MiamiLIFE]

Originally Posted by nidex

The secret is certainly out with Miami and the cost, vs. what you get in terms of lifestyle. It started getting crazy late 2020, early 2021, and I doubt it will die off any time soon.

The only thing that Miami doesn't have is a strong local economy that pays well. This just means you have to make your money in other cities and eventually go there. It'll become an American/Latin American Dubai.

I'm also interested to see the effect that the laws regarding foreign nationals buying property have on the city. I feel like half of the high rise condos sit empty because they're just places to park money.

Jobs are coming. Too slowly, but the momentum is picking up with Citadel, Anaplan, my company has expanded its footprint here (had our second holiday party last night), Sony has added people to Wynwood. Granted this is not enough good paying jobs, but clearly the momentum is here. Just need more time time.
New York didn't come together overnight.

[CXT2000]

^ outside Citadel, Anaplan will start with a small footprint. Even though the company has 2K employees world wide. Sony leased 40K sq ft, but do not have a significant headcount.

Low wages is why a lot of companies like moving to Miami, they have to pay half the salary here than they do in NYC/SoCal. Which funny enough still creates a brain drain even with businesses coming here.

Also, congrats on your company expanding, it's always an exciting feeling

[wanderer34]

Originally Posted by gixxer1000

Agreed. NY for example has had a net migration loss pretty much going back to the 70's. It has only grown through international immigration and more briths than deaths. It has always been expensive. However the people replacing the people leaving made just as much or more and as the density grew people are willing to sacrafice and live in smaller more outdated accomodations in exchange for the amenities of the city.

If Miami follows this "mass exedous" pattern over the next 50 years I think most of us here would consider that a win as it would be constant growth over our entire lifetime.

And its worth pointing out the cities losing people rapidly now like NYC and SF aren't losing those people just becuase of affordability. Again, the people were willing to put up with that unafordability for decades. It has been the insance policies that have lead to higher crime and a decrease in quality of life.

The thing Miami has that NY and SF doesn't is land. We can simply build hundreds of towers is prime locations. So for the forseeable future Miami will always be a relative bargain compared to the larger cities.

I believe by the bolded quote, you mean cheap, affordable land! As long as Miami has the perfect balance of supertalls, high-rises, mid-rises, and low-rises, as well as condos, apartment buildings, co-ops, and single family homes, the city of Miami can easily reach 1 million in about 20-30 years as long as the demand and supply is there!

[CXT2000]

^ you must be out of your mind to think the city proper can reach 1M people in 20-30 years lol. The infrastructure can't even handle 440,000 people. Supertalls everywhere won't happen, you'll need heavy emphasis on middle housing, transit and upgrading infrastructure, all of which Miami lacks.

[MiamiLIFE]

Originally Posted by wanderer34

I believe by the bolded quote, you mean cheap, affordable land! As long as Miami has the perfect balance of supertalls, high-rises, mid-rises, and low-rises, as well as condos, apartment buildings, co-ops, and single family homes, the city of Miami can easily reach 1 million in about 20-30 years as long as the demand and supply is there!

Seems achievable...flying taxis and self driving cars will likely be operating in 10 to 15 years and that will address a lot of public transportation issues.

[CXT2000]

Originally Posted by MiamiLIFE

Seems achievable...flying taxis and self driving cars will likely be operating in 10 to 15 years and that will address a lot of public transportation issues.

More realistic: a gondola to help when floods/high tides happen....