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Here is something I posted in another forum to help reduce concern about high sex offender registration in particular locales. It still applies here, so enjoy, and note that I'm not arguing against the database, but merely arguing against its validity as either a predictor of potential frequency of sex crime or a predictor that sex crime will occur again. A lot of people figure that this data in the sex offender registration has predictive value, which it does not, for the reasons listed below. All this data tells you is where these people live so you can be aware of their presence and disqualification with children. I'm not against people using this database, but I'm really just against people getting a false sense of security (or insecurity) from it.
A good thing to remember is that a lot of different offenses will make a person register as a sex offender. Of individuals in that database, only a fraction have actually committed the most heinous deeds of rape or child molestation.
Just to make evident the more innocent folks with that label, in most states a 18-year-old who gets caught engaging in lewdness with a 17-year-old will have to register as a sex offender if the officer and judge go by the book. In all reality, the sex offender in this instance was probably not someone who would threaten your children.
And finally, note that the accountability of sex offender registration is a helpful tool in keeping dangerous minds away from children and arming parents and caretakers with an easily accessible red flag. Individuals on that list are more likely to have to watch themselves and thereby avoid areas where their presence evokes suspicion. However, the real problem for parents to fear are the individuals who haven't made the list yet and are still being allowed to interact and even work with children while no authorities are the wiser. Every offender has that first offense, and many have yet to commit that offense as of right now. This can't be avoided with anything other than discretion, supervision, caution, and luck.
Speaking solely from an inferential statistical standpoint, the odds of dangerous perversion are pretty much the same between comparable demographics and similar population size/density between cities. Under that fairly reasonable assumption, I'd actually be more worried about a child in a comparable area with less registered offenders, as such may be indicative that many have yet to be caught. This presumable reason for the discrepancy actually reflects an inadequate implementation of the accountability/segregation that the registration was meant to ensure. It could also be indicative of lenient enforcement, something far more horrific but unfortunately far less measurable.
Altogether, there are numerous limitations and confounds that make quantitative comparisons using the sex offender registration turn out to be invalid when determining the odds that one will fall victim to a sex crime in a particular locale. Unfortunately, the best anyone can do is still just keep wits about themselves and ensure their children can do the same, then hope for the best, 'cause many good parents and savvy kids can tell you that luck is as big a factor as anything.
Last edited by stingraynm; 09-14-2009 at 06:54 PM..
You did not answer my original question. I did not ask for help in finding where sex offenders live. I do not need evidence that sex offenders exist. I need evidence that Idaho is tougher/stricter on sex offenders than other states.
Now that's a whole other question.
California seems to be the toughest.
Governor Schwarzenegger Proposes Toughest Sex Offender Laws in the History of the State of California (http://gov.ca.gov/press-release/1565/ - broken link)
I have a question. If it has already been answered I apologize. I have read through a lot of posts but I have yet to find an answer. In doing my research on Idaho cities/towns I have noticed that Idaho has a high ratio of sex offenders. I have read the posts where people say that Idaho is so much tougher on sex offenders than other states that is why the ratio is so high. However, I cannot find any concrete evidence to support this other than opinion. Does anyone know of a web site or article that can reinforce this opinion? I would like to see some supporting research. I am not trying to start a fight or provoke anyone. I am VERY interested in moving to Idaho and I am just trying to make an educated and informed decision on where to move my family and me. Any information would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks for the info. However, it does not really answer my question. The first article just states that Idaho is looking to implement some legislation in Feb. 2009. The second article just shows that Idaho ranks 14/50 as the most sex offenders per population in the U.S.
Here is something I posted in another forum to help reduce concern about high sex offender registration in particular locales. It still applies here, so enjoy, and note that I'm not arguing against the database, but merely arguing against its validity as either a predictor of potential frequency of sex crime or a predictor that sex crime will occur again. A lot of people figure that this data in the sex offender registration has predictive value, which it does not, for the reasons listed below. All this data tells you is where these people live so you can be aware of their presence and disqualification with children. I'm not against people using this database, but I'm really just against people getting a false sense of security (or insecurity) from it.
A good thing to remember is that a lot of different offenses will make a person register as a sex offender. Of individuals in that database, only a fraction have actually committed the most heinous deeds of rape or child molestation.
Just to make evident the more innocent folks with that label, in most states a 18-year-old who gets caught engaging in lewdness with a 17-year-old will have to register as a sex offender if the officer and judge go by the book. In all reality, the sex offender in this instance was probably not someone who would threaten your children.
And finally, note that the accountability of sex offender registration is a helpful tool in keeping dangerous minds away from children and arming parents and caretakers with an easily accessible red flag. Individuals on that list are more likely to have to watch themselves and thereby avoid areas where their presence evokes suspicion. However, the real problem for parents to fear are the individuals who haven't made the list yet and are still being allowed to interact and even work with children while no authorities are the wiser. Every offender has that first offense, and many have yet to commit that offense as of right now. This can't be avoided with anything other than discretion, supervision, caution, and luck.
Speaking solely from an inferential statistical standpoint, the odds of dangerous perversion are pretty much the same between comparable demographics and similar population size/density between cities. Under that fairly reasonable assumption, I'd actually be more worried about a child in a comparable area with less registered offenders, as such may be indicative that many have yet to be caught. This presumable reason for the discrepancy actually reflects an inadequate implementation of the accountability/segregation that the registration was meant to ensure. It could also be indicative of lenient enforcement, something far more horrific but unfortunately far less measurable.
Altogether, there are numerous limitations and confounds that make quantitative comparisons using the sex offender registration turn out to be invalid when determining the odds that one will fall victim to a sex crime in a particular locale. Unfortunately, the best anyone can do is still just keep wits about themselves and ensure their children can do the same, then hope for the best, 'cause many good parents and savvy kids can tell you that luck is as big a factor as anything.
Thank you for your post. It is both well thought out and informative. However, it is still just opinion. It does not provide an answer for my OP. I am not trying to be rude or unappreciative but I need hard data not opinion. I may not be able to find an answer to my original post but I will keep trying.
Now that's a whole other question.
California seems to be the toughest.
Governor Schwarzenegger Proposes Toughest Sex Offender Laws in the History of the State of California (http://gov.ca.gov/press-release/1565/ - broken link)
This has nothing to do with Idaho. This does not rank the states. It does not state that California is the toughest state on sex offenders. It is about trying to implement the toughest laws in California state history.
Thank you for your post. It is both well thought out and informative. However, it is still just opinion. It does not provide an answer for my OP. I am not trying to be rude or unappreciative but I need hard data not opinion. I may not be able to find an answer to my original post but I will keep trying.
I don't think you're going to find what you want on an internet discussion forum. The best most of us can do is "be helpful".
I can tell you that the number of cases allowed to plead down to non-registration offense was incredibly high when I was a cop in LA County...and that what I have found from following arrrest/trial cases here it's dang near impossible to plead a part-1 sexual assault down to something that won't involve registration, but see...again this is just one cop's anecdotal experience...how would you document that sort of thing anyhow?
How can you document the actual application of prosecutorial practices in each state? I'm not aware that it's an oft-reported thing...
What I am looking for:
1. If you plead guilty to this "crime" then you have to register as a sex offender.
2. If you have to register as a sex offender then you have to stay on the registry for x amount of years.
3. What are the minimum requirements to have to register as a sex offender?
4. How many years do you have to stay on the registry for specific crimes?
I think that this information is available somewhere. I just do not know how/where to access it. A lot of people have stated that Idaho is HARD on sex offenders. I believe that they believe this. I just want to know why they believe this. I am just looking for evidence to back it up.
I looked for a site comparing statutes by state, but that is a surprisingly elusive topic. For the searches you're stating to Sage, you probably do want to contact a professional who has access to and understanding of how to filter data of the judicial variety. There has got to be something out there, but I don't have the interest myself to persistently look for it.
I'm just hoping for your sake that you're just curious about how this topic is evidenced, as opposed to actually expecting to use these tools to verify that your children will be "safer" somewhere.
Enforcement is after the fact, and education is the only proven form of prevention. The most important assurance you can have is that your children have the wherewithal to contend with a predator, not that the law can label and punish that predator. Those mentalities in upbringing hold the defining difference between children who escape predators and children who are terrified into such blind submission that it appears absurd when examined through the callous eyes of objectivity and hindsight.
The harsh bottom line is that people who expect "law and order" to protect their children from themselves and others are people who raise ideal victims of circumstance.
I don't know you or your children, but just feel this tangent is obligatory whenever someone appears to be giving justice more credit than it's due on the preventative front. With that, sorry I can't help you find the info you need and best of hopes in finding it (would like to see the hard facts if you do find them summarized in less pages than entire sections of multiple State Codes and court records), and hopefully you can see why I value providing my info in this context even though it has nothing to offer your search.
When monsters have nightmares, they dream of savvy children.
Or...
A savvy child is a monster's worst nightmare.
Whichever take you like best, gotta love the real life stories that have that idea as the resounding theme.
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