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Old 08-27-2023, 04:52 PM
 
18,432 posts, read 8,264,501 times
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no model has even 70mph winds.....so I don't know where the NHC is getting the (H) from

you'll be fine...you get more wind than that with a good front...35-40 on you
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Old 08-27-2023, 05:00 PM
 
30,424 posts, read 21,228,470 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Corrie22 View Post
no model has even 70mph winds.....so I don't know where the NHC is getting the (H) from

you'll be fine...you get more wind than that with a good front...35-40 on you
Depends on how close the center comes to me. 40 miles offshore or more is what i need. But if it blew up to a CAT4 and made landfall just north of me it would pull up a bowl of water 18ft high. Long as winds are not over 120 i should be ok. Not sure how far away from the center the strongest winds will be.
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Old 08-27-2023, 09:31 PM
 
Location: Florida
2,334 posts, read 2,281,879 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988 View Post
I am going down with the ship no matter if it was a cat7 with gust to 310mph. This is how i always knew i would die when a Cat 5 comes up the pipe. And that is coming soon. Sure won't be another 100 years or even 18 years. If the house goes i am done. I will be fine with this system. Just gotta make ice slice and deal with no A/C for a day or 2.
You’d rather drown in a hurricane than simply go on your own terms? I don’t think that’s a logical plan…

I can tell you’re really stressed about this one though since you’re no longer writing in rhyme.
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Old 08-28-2023, 04:41 AM
 
30,424 posts, read 21,228,470 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FL_Expert View Post
You’d rather drown in a hurricane than simply go on your own terms? I don’t think that’s a logical plan…

I can tell you’re really stressed about this one though since you’re no longer writing in rhyme.
I would never drown. They stopped a while back for the most parts as a mod was upset.
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Old 08-28-2023, 06:16 AM
 
Location: South Tampa, Maui, Paris
4,476 posts, read 3,844,735 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988 View Post
I would never drown. They stopped a while back for the most parts as a mod was upset.
A mod was upset about your rhymes? That's ridiculous. Love your rhymes!
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Old 08-28-2023, 07:15 AM
 
18,432 posts, read 8,264,501 times
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GFS develops it into a major hurricane this morning.....but it's the only model doing that
ECMWF doesn't develop it past 50mph winds
NHC is going with GFS on this one

track and timing is jumping all over the place...depending on how it's developed

LK it's going to be right off you around midnight Tues and on into Wed early AM before sun up
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Old 08-28-2023, 07:47 AM
 
Location: SW Florida
14,938 posts, read 12,132,451 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Corrie22 View Post
GFS develops it into a major hurricane this morning.....but it's the only model doing that
ECMWF doesn't develop it past 50mph winds
NHC is going with GFS on this one

track and timing is jumping all over the place...depending on how it's developed

LK it's going to be right off you around midnight Tues and on into Wed early AM before sun up
One of the meteorologists on Wink News last night made a comment about the NHC decision to go with the call for a major hurricane. He said they tend to call the worst case scenario given the variables present in a weather system, out of an abundance of caution and given the lives at stake, would prefer to overcall than undercall ( though they get beaten up for both, seems to me). I hadn't realized only one model had called for a Cat 3, but they have been emphasizing the very warm waters of the Gulf as a player in ramping up the intensification, and even rapid intensification as it approaches the coast.

We're in a tropical storm watch here in Charlotte county. With a storm surge watch ( 2-4 feet) in place, even for points upriver from the Charlotte Harbor. We're battening things down, preparing more for potential loss of power than anything else.

Still thinking of and wishing the best for LK.
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Old 08-28-2023, 08:09 AM
 
Location: Gainesville, FL; formerly Weston, FL
3,234 posts, read 3,189,384 times
Reputation: 6495
Hurricane watch here in Gainesville, Alachua County. We’re about 60 miles inland from Cedar Key. Not much development between us and them. Lots and lots and lots of trees.

We’ve got 6, 7 oaks of various heights and types on our property. Fortunately, none are the dreaded water oak. But I still am looking at the trees and the branches and wondering how they’ll hold up.

I am not too worried about flooding. But there are certain sections in my development that are more flood prone. Still, not as bad as some neighborhoods near eastern Newberry.

I moved from South Florida and thought I had left hurricanes behind. Sigh. I was so wrong.
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Old 08-28-2023, 10:43 AM
 
18,432 posts, read 8,264,501 times
Reputation: 13764
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988 View Post
Not sure how far away from the center the strongest winds will be.
not far....friction from the land will cause the eye to spin down...and get smaller and faster
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Old 08-28-2023, 11:26 AM
 
Location: Paradise
4,876 posts, read 4,202,002 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Travelassie View Post

Still thinking of and wishing the best for LK.
Me too...keep yourself safe LK!!

My side will get some rain (2-4 inches is the prediction right now) and wind (maybe TS force)...it will be exciting with my dogs and it would be nice if we get a day off!

Other than that, not much for the east coast this time.
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