[WRnative]

Colorado State University has revised its 2022 hurricane season forecast, most frighteningly predicting a significantly increased "Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index" of 180, almost 50 percent higher than the 1991-2020 average.


https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-06.pdf


In 2021, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index for the North Atlantic was 146.


https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/mon...yclones/202113



https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html


<<Phil Klotzbach, meteorologist and author of the CSU forecast report, said on Twitter: “One of the reasons for well above-average Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast from CSU is due to the likely lack of El Nino this summer/fall. El Nino generally increases vertical wind shear in the Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes.” Klotzbach took over writing the report following Gray’s death in 2016.


In addition, sea surface temperatures increased over the last several weeks. Warm water strengthens storms.>>




https://www.insurancejournal.com/new.../03/670402.htm



https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/


The accuracy of CSU hurricane forecasts can be analyzed here:


https://tropical.colostate.edu/archi...l#verification

[LKJ1988]

Already had a miss this weekend. I can't buy a storm norm.

[Sunshine Rules]

Sometimes the most anxiety comes from the waiting.......waiting to see which direction the storm takes, how large and strong it will be, etc.

For those of you who are new to Florida, there are a number of local news stations that have hurricane info on their sites -- things such as what to do to prepare for a hurricane, tracking storms, etc.


I've put together a compiled of what you will find on those sites regarding getting prepared and what to do after a storm:


PLANNING AHEAD OF THE STORM

Every household should sit down and discuss what you will do in case of a hurricane.

You should pick out a "safe room" within your home in which to gather, preferably a room without windows and located in the center part of your home, such as a large closet.

Officials suggest you arrange with a friend or family member from out of state to act as your designated contact person in case of emergency, someone family members who are separated from the group can call to report their location.

Find out what evacuation zone your home is located in and determine where you would go should residents of your area be ordered to evacuate. You should know the locations of nearby hurricane shelters and, if you have pets or someone in your family has special needs, find out whether the shelters can accommodate your pets or other special requirements. Please keep in mind that you will be expected to bring much of your and your pets supplies for your shelter stay.



PREP & SUPPLIES

Most people know to have sufficient drinking water and food that does not require refrigeration or cooking on hand to take care of your family's needs for at least a week on hand.

A manual can opener, paper plates and plastic forks & spoons, plastic cups, paper towels, toilet paper, flashlights, batteries, portable radios, a fire extinguisher, first aid kit, heavy plastic & tarps, hammer and nails, heavy work gloves, plastic trash bags and cleaning supplies should also be on your supplies list. A BBQ grill, charcoal and lighter are a good idea as well.

If you had medications you need you should refill them before a storm approaches.

If you have small children, have sufficient baby diapers, wipes, etc on hand to last a week.

If you have pets, you'll need pet food and water for them.

Stock up on bags of ice. Even if our area does not suffer a direct hit, power lines can be knocked down by winds and electricity can be off for days.

If you depend on a cordless phone, get a corded one that doesn't require electricity as a back up option. If you don't have a land line and use only a cell phone, make sure you have an emergency charger.

Gas up your car before the storm hits, gas station pumps require electricity to work. It's also a good idea to have one of those tire sealers/fix a flats.

Get some emergency cash to keep at home, ATMs won't work either if the power is off.

Every home should have a first aid kit filled with supplies such as band-aids, antiseptic, compresses & tape, ace bandages, aspirin, anti-diarrhea medications, rubbing alcohol, etc. You will also need sunscreen, hand wipes and mosquito repellent.

Make up a household inventory of your valuables, appliances, furniture, etc. Take photos or video of your belongings. Scan or save receipts for major items in a watertight case.


EVACUATION KIT

If you determine it is in your families best interests to evacuate to a shelter, there are supplies the Red Cross recommends taking with you:

pillows, blankets, sleeping bags and/or air mattresses
extra clothing, eye glasses, shoes
folding chairs for sitting on during the day
personal hygiene items such as toothbrush, tooth paste, soap, deodorant
books, card games or small toys for entertaining family members
pet food and supplies if applicable, leashes, carriers



IMPORTANT PAPERS

Important papers should be gathered ahead of time in a waterproof container - items such as passports, social security cards, bank & credit cards information, wills, insurance policies, inventory of your home for insurance purposes, marriage licenses, precious family photos, etc



PREPARING AHEAD OF A STORM

NOAA and the local news stations will provide updates as the storm system approaches. Even if a hurricane is predicted to miss our immediate area, there are two things to keep in mind.
(1) Storms are unpredictable and can quickly change direction
and
(2) Hurricanes and major tropical storms typically have incredibly wide wind zones. A storm hitting another part of our state can still wreck havoc here.

So stay updated on the weather reports.



Now is the time to double check your food, water and other hurricane supplies, replenishing and/or replacing items as needed.

Before the storm hits, scrub and fill all bathtubs and sinks with water for additional supplies.

Turn your refrigerator and freezer to the coldest setting in case of power outages.

Store all lawn furniture, toys, garbage cans, potted plants, bicycles, wind chimes, bird houses, etc. Don't leave anything out that can become a missile in strong winds.

Trim tree branches touching or near your home or roof. Clean gutters of any debris.

If you have a swimming pool, they suggest leaving it filled and chlorinated but cover the filtration system.

Check your neighbors yards for loose items as well. You don't want your neighbor's trash can flying through your living room window during the storm.

Protect your windows and doors with hurricane shutters if you have them, heavy plywood is often used by homeowners who do not have shutters. Experts state placing duct tape on your windows is not a sufficient form of protection.

If you have electronics such as TVs, computers that you wish to protect from water damage, protect them with plastic.

If you live in a mobile home or on a barrier island, plan for evacuation and listen to local news stations for evacuation information.

If you do decide to voluntarily evacuate, keep in mind roads out of our area such as I-75 will become congested with traffic. Plan to leave as early as possible.



WHEN THE STORM HITS

Move into your designated safe room and stay there until authorities give the all clear.

Stay put! Now is not the time to change your mind about evacuation. Once winds hit tropical storm force, emergency services such as ambulances, fire trucks & police are pulled off of the road.

If your home starts to flood, shut off the electric power at the panel.

If the electricity goes off, it is recommended to turn off major appliances and AC to reduce the chances of damage from a power serge when power is restored.

Listen to your NOAA weather radio or other radio for weather advisories and emergency information.

Once the storm has passed do not travel until authorities say it is safe to do so. There often is street flooding, downed trees and electrical wires in the streets. Don't allow children to play in storm water, it usually contains contaminants.



AFTER THE STORM

As those of us who have lived in FL for a number of years know, you may be without power for several days after a storm. Emergency services will be overwhelmed with calls so unless you have a serious emergency, plan on being self-reliant for several days.

When it's safe to do so, survey the outside of your home for damages. Check on your neighbors, see how they fared in the storm.

If your home was flooded do not turn the power back on (if it is available) until after you have had a licensed electrician check your wiring for damage.

If you have a gas powered generator or BBQ grill, use them in well ventilated areas.

Be aware that snakes, alligators and other wild animals may be driven to higher ground by flooding.



No one likes to think about a hurricane or major tropical storm hitting their area. We in my particular area of Sarasota - Bradenton area have been very fortunate in that regard in past years (with the exception of Irma). My thoughts are that it's better to be prepared and have a storm miss us than to not prepare ahead and end up without sufficient food, water or supplies to ride out a storm that is coming directly for our area.

Remember, supplies of things like bread, bottled water, tarps, batteries often run out at the stores a couple of days before the storm hits.


Stay safe everyone!

[lluvia]

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

Already had a miss this weekend. I can't buy a storm norm.

You'll stay dry
And even with a million
A cane
You can't buy

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by lluvia

You'll stay dry
And even with a million
A cane
You can't buy

Tampa's number is gonna get pulled with a monster CAT5 with gust to 225mph making landfall in Tarpon springs in mid Oct with a surge of 30ft in the bay ray before the next 20 years. Been a 100 years + and nothing.

[beach43ofus]

I've lived in FLA (on & off) for ~45 yrs on both sides...always in the Southern half.

My best friend has lived in Boca for 44 years straight full time.

My Father has lived in Vero & St. Lucie West for as many years as I have, & so has my sister-in-law (Jupiter)

We've never been impacted by a tropical storm as homeowners. We all live >1 mi. inland, in newer cinder block homes w/ tile roofs in high flood zones.

We mostly ignore the media noise until 2 days out. At that point, if a cat 4-5 has us & in its cone, we'll bail...

...we've never had to bail. We know how to escape avoiding I-75 & I-95, & have gas cans to stretch our travel radius out to ~600 miles.

Its a huge media scare to sell advertising. The expoitation sickens me.

Maybe 1% of Floridians are significantly impacted each year....1 in a 100, & that is in a bad year.

Now, if you live on, or near (w/in 1 mile) the water, or in a low flood zone, then it's different, & you need to be locked in, & have extensive plans.

For the rest of us...carry on...unless 1 in a 100 odds scares you If they do, plz move elsewhere & don't live in fear....life's too short.

[Charlie Allnut]

Some good advice already posted.
Here is my 2 cents worth.

1. Be prepared
2. Don't buy the media hype, check out reliable sources. One of my favorites is Ventusky https://www.ventusky.com/?p=27.6;-78...temperature-2m
3. Get to know your neighbors, that will be your immediate support group if a real castophe strikes.
5. Respect the windgusts, but the real threat (fatalities) is storm surge.
6. Relax, you will be fine. Also, some of best weather of year immediatly follows the Hurricane.

[Corrie22]

^ true.....Ventusky has consistently been the most accurate...even more accurate than the NHC

....the couple of days before....and the days after...are the best weather we ever have

and....if you have a gasoline generator.....fill up gas cans now....put a gas stabilizer in it

[mrviking]

This past weekend I pulled out the generator and hooked it up to our transfer switch. Everything checked out and was running smooth. Good to be ready for the "what if".

[floridarebel]

Florida rarely gets hurricanes anymore. Was more common in the olden days.